I will probably get bashed for being negative, but I am telling the truth. Heupel should be recruiting top 3 in both high school and the portal. There is no excuse; Vitello has recruited top 5 every year to a baseball program that has basically never been good. Caldwell has the number 1 ranked class with 4 5 stars. There is simply no excuse, especially since Heupel has been winning.
Top 3 based on what? Thats a pretty arbitrary number to just toss out.
Why should any coach at UT be recruiting top 3 in the SEC much less the nation? Give one logical reason other than you think so? An argument can be made for the top 10 but why would most players consistently pick UT over Bama, UGA, LSU, Texas, Miami, Michigan, Oregon, OSU, Penn State? That's not even counting places like Florida, FSU and USC. Thats 12 schools we will always be in direct competition with players for. Now here is a big one.. about 60% of blue-chip players live in the homestates of 8 of those teams. About 3% of blue-chip players come from the state of TN.
By some miracle, you expect a coach in a state that produces 3% of blue-chip players should be a shoe-in to beat out 12 other schools plus everyone else for all the top players easily? There is a salary cap on NIL you know. UT is top 2-3 as far as collectives go but the thing is we are not competing with one other school we are competing with 133 other teams. All the named 12 teams have NIL budgets within spitting distance of ours.
All these teams have either.
Similar budgets and facilities.
Have similar or better recent track records of success.
More homegrown talent in most cases, similar in the others.
Here is the kicker.. outside of Bama all are in bigger or same size markets.
This is something people are sleeping on badly. There is a reason teams like UNLV, Colorado, Indiana, SMU, Illinois and even Memphis are starting to make noise recently. They have large markets that mean they not only have big whale boosters they can make money from the rank and file fans. UT is no slouch there but again its not a 1 on one market. You are competing with a lot of teams and a lot of them can get home team discounts. Being the starting QB at USC, Texas, Miami gets you paid big money and exposure no matter what the school can offer. Even if the team is not that good you're still gonna be plastered all over the place. Math is undefeated.
Metro LA has a population of over 18 million. USC
Austin 2.4 Fake UT
Dallas 8 SMU plus
Miami 6 mil
Knoxville a bit under 1 mil really only beats out places like Florida, FSU, and Bama.
LSU, UGA, MIchigan, Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State are weird ones as even though their direct markets are same size or smaller they own their whole states/regions.
So no expecting top 3 recruiting at UT is not on any level realistic unless we can pull off some big wins the next few years. Because resume is where we lack against most of the teams in that current top tier. Bama will fall off in time. Weird teams like SMU, Colorado and UNLV are gonna be heard from a lot soon. UGA is close enough to Atlanta to leverage part of that market unless GA state or Tech make some moves. I think we should be expecting no less than top 10 recruiting on average and the right things can come together.. but in the world of NIL UT can't be expected to consistently be top 3.