Hit the Road, Barrack

#51
#51
BigPapaVol said:
What's perverse? The reality side of it perverse?
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I understand the "reality" side of it. Although "reality" is much more complex than just purely money.

There is a strong misconception that money = votes or money = support among the electorate. It is simply not true. It is a factor, not absolute.
 
#52
#52
utvolpj said:
the rules are set so that he can't be in them without polling to a certain number (guess who set that). That won't be changed and Obama wouldn't want him there anyway
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Yep, it would shift the debate toward a referendum on Obama.

If it is just Obama vs Romney, Obama can bob attacks against his administration and deflect upon Romney's record as a governor and cherry pick Ryan's budget. At least I would think that is Obama's plan.
 
#53
#53
PKT_VOL said:
I understand the "reality" side of it. Although "reality" is much more complex than just purely money.

There is a strong misconception that money = votes or money = support among the electorate. It is simply not true. It is a factor, not absolute.
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It is 100% certain that no money = no votes.
 
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#56
#56
milohimself said:
Great.

The link I posted is the one that matters
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Take a look at the latest poll they have from Monmouth U with Obama +1. They poll 27% Rs when in the 2008 election 29% voted and in 2010 it was above 30%. Also the poll samples Ds at 33% when in 2008 it was at 31% and was below 30% in 2010.

Simply put, the data is flawed
 
#58
#58
VolsNSkinsFan said:
Take a look at the latest poll they have from Monmouth U with Obama +1. They poll 27% Rs when in the 2008 election 29% voted and in 2010 it was above 30%. Also the poll samples Ds at 33% when in 2008 it was at 31% and was below 30% in 2010.

Simply put, the data is flawed
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The link you posted shows Obama with a 41 point lead in the electoral college

You keep referring to national polls which are worth ****all
 
#60
#60
theutvolunteers said:
Your scientific statistical wizardry is on another level!
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You don't think it's significant that the home county of Obama, has him only leading by 12 points when in 2008 he won it by 30? You don't think that has any meaning at all?

Do you believe there are people who voted for McCain who are now going to vote for Obama? Because there will literally be millions of people who voted for Obama who either vote for Romney or sit at home. But you don't think that's statistically significant.
 
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#62
#62
VolsNSkinsFan said:
Keep posting flawed polls and I'll keep calling you out.
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You keep talking like Romney is going to win by a landslide. Romney may win but I don't know where you are getting info showing he will win.

Real Clear Politics uses several polls and averages them.
That seems to be the best one to view IMO.

They are showing via their electoral map this morning

Obama 237 Romney 191

9 states as toss ups with a total of 110
There are some close races but Obama ahead in 8 of the 9 states


Intrade has this at Obama 56.8 - Romney 42.1 this morning.

Ryan did not give Romney a bump in the polls. The RNC convention may bolt him into the lead. Many things can happen before election day .
As of today the road to the WH appears to be in Obama's favor.
 
#63
#63
Yeah, the Romney landslide is hard to see. Not sure if Obama 08 is considered a landslide but it's hard to see Romney doing that well. I can see a relatively narrow Romney win but right now they facts on the ground (from polls) indicate Obama has the inside track. Way too early to predict though.
 
#65
#65
something to watch: Romney continues to amass a sizable war chest. I think that immediately following the Convention, we'll see a significant difference in Romney's media exposure.

If the political arms race is won or lost on the amount money raised and spent, then it seems that Romney's strategy is to "keep his powder dry" for as long as possible then outspend Obama and saturate the media landscape.

It's possible that Romney and co. are looking at the polls and see that, despite being vilified by Obama and co., he's not losing ground. The numbers have remained pretty stagnant. I'm not suggesting tha anyone will win in a landslide, but I believe that Romney and Obama will be neck and neck all the way up to the election.

I dont know about you, but I'm curious to see what Obama's October Surprise will be.
 
#66
#66
There is almost no point in debating this with VolsSkins because any poll you show him that indicates that Obama is winning he just dismisses as flawed methodology. Any poll showing Romney ahead, or it being close, he goes back and finds whatever he can to show they got a race for dog catcher in Duluth right in 1936.
 
#68
#68
I think this is going to be a tight race until election day unless something happens to change the dynamics of the election.

IMO the 2008 was not decided until October when we had the bank bailouts. McCain did not handle that situation well and Sarah definitely did not help with the moderates.

No one knows what may happen between now and November that could flip this race to either one.

One thing we do know it is a nasty race and will get nastier.
 
#69
#69
lawgator1 said:
There is almost no point in debating this with VolsSkins because any poll you show him that indicates that Obama is winning he just dismisses as flawed methodology. Any poll showing Romney ahead, or it being close, he goes back and finds whatever he can to show they got a race for dog catcher in Duluth right in 1936.
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lg i am under contract right now for a specific group to do polling in five key states. I am not getting into too much detail here but obama is losing ground. One question we ask is did u vote for obama and if they say yes we follow up will you this time.nearly one out of three that said yes say no now and one out of two say they are unsure. Madison is an area we called by the way.
 
#70
#70
lawgator1 said:
There is almost no point in debating this with VolsSkins because any poll you show him that indicates that Obama is winning he just dismisses as flawed methodology. Any poll showing Romney ahead, or it being close, he goes back and finds whatever he can to show they got a race for dog catcher in Duluth right in 1936.
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Sorry LG, I'll try not to bring data backed by facts and instead keep to the talking points
 
#72
#72
1. We don't know the relative ground game strength but signs are pretty good for the GOP both in terms of registrations, changes in registrations (much greater migration from Dem to I than from GOP to I) and in places like Wisc. where the Walker recall not only backfired but it resulted in a massive and otherwise unlikely build in the GOP ground game. Add Ryan to the mix and Wisc is much more in play.

2. Much of Romney's money has been embargoed until he becomes the official nominee. In contrast, Obama has been spending pretty heavily and is doing worse than expected in fund raising.

It will be close and Obama has the inside track but these two items (along with the likely continued poor economic news) give me hope that Romney will eek it out.
 
#73
#73
volinbham said:
1. We don't know the relative ground game strength but signs are pretty good for the GOP both in terms of registrations, changes in registrations (much greater migration from Dem to I than from GOP to I) and in places like Wisc. where the Walker recall not only backfired but it resulted in a massive and otherwise unlikely build in the GOP ground game. Add Ryan to the mix and Wisc is much more in play.

2. Much of Romney's money has been embargoed until he becomes the official nominee. In contrast, Obama has been spending pretty heavily and is doing worse than expected in fund raising.

It will be close and Obama has the inside track but these two items (along with the likely continued poor economic news) give me hope that Romney will eek it out.
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You left out the vote suppression efforts of the GOP, which are meeting with mixed legal results.


Edit: I mean "voter fraud prevention techniques"
 
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#75
#75
volinbham said:
Yeah, the Romney landslide is hard to see. Not sure if Obama 08 is considered a landslide but it's hard to see Romney doing that well. I can see a relatively narrow Romney win but right now they facts on the ground (from polls) indicate Obama has the inside track. Way too early to predict though.
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I have changed tunes and calling it for Romney at this point. At the beginning I thought Obama would take it hands down but through it all Romney is still right over his shoulder and isn't going away. Most polls have it close and at this stage that isn't good for the current sitting President. Kind of like getting passed on the last lap of a race.
 
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