Most of the reasons Trump wont or very likely cant win, have nothing to do with Trump.
It is all infrastructure. From getting out the vote/ballot harvesting in battleground States, which the DNC is running circles around the GOP, to who controls battleground States Governor/AG/Sec of State. As Courts showed in 2020, they want no part in adjudicating elections, so it comes down to those key positions in battleground States and those are almost all currently held by Democrats.
Example. If Dems vote by mail in much larger percentages than Republicans, what are the chances in Dem controlled battleground States, that the signature verification on those mail in ballots, is as lenient as possible?