How Iowa might win

[BrewHawk]

Obviously, if the Vol coaching staff doesn't read my "Wanna beat Iowa?" post

From the UT games I've watched, Milton doesn't appear to be overly mobile, but really has a nice release and throws a fairly accurate ball. He's going to need to be patient. If not, he will throw a couple picks and that will greatly benefit an Iowa offense that can't seem to get out of their own way.

I could see Iowa establishing a run game. This would go a long way to helping the offense as it would open up the play-action pass game.

Iowa needs to get ahead early, or avoid getting down by two scores.

I don't see the overall team speed on offense you guys had the last time you took us out behind the woodshed (shudder). I think/hope our defense will put on a much better performance this time around. Our D-line is quite salty and has done a good job of batting down passes and stuffing good rushing attacks. You guys run a bunch of quick release passes, which could give soft zone coverage fits. You may see Iowa play two deep zone/man under quite a bit to try to take this away, but that goes against trying to avoid the big play. In 900 snaps, the defense has only allowed 18 plays of 20 yards or more this year.

I really think this game comes down to FG success. Whoever misses will lose. If we can't get any offense going (which is a very distinct possibility), I see you guys walking away with a 17-3 victory. If we can get 100+ yards rushing, I see Iowa eeking out a 17-13 win.

There is a small part of me that wants to see Brian Ferentz give the AD the finger on the way out the door with an offensive outburst, but I just don't think we have the horses to pull it off.

 

[Johnnyreb#VFL]

In 900 snaps, the defense has only allowed 18 plays of 20 yards or more this year.

Insane stat. Also, one of the craziest CFB games I watched this year was the ending of your Nebraska game. I found myself a Hawkeye that day.

Beating UT is simple. Stop our run game, stop Milton.

 

[bigorangecrush89]

Obviously, if the Vol coaching staff doesn't read my "Wanna beat Iowa?" post

From the UT games I've watched, Milton doesn't appear to be overly mobile, but really has a nice release and throws a fairly accurate ball. He's going to need to be patient. If not, he will throw a couple picks and that will greatly benefit an Iowa offense that can't seem to get out of their own way.

I could see Iowa establishing a run game. This would go a long way to helping the offense as it would open up the play-action pass game.

Iowa needs to get ahead early, or avoid getting down by two scores.

I don't see the overall team speed on offense you guys had the last time you took us out behind the woodshed (shudder). I think/hope our defense will put on a much better performance this time around. Our D-line is quite salty and has done a good job of batting down passes and stuffing good rushing attacks. You guys run a bunch of quick release passes, which could give soft zone coverage fits. You may see Iowa play two deep zone/man under quite a bit to try to take this away, but that goes against trying to avoid the big play. In 900 snaps, the defense has only allowed 18 plays of 20 yards or more this year.

I really think this game comes down to FG success. Whoever misses will lose. If we can't get any offense going (which is a very distinct possibility), I see you guys walking away with a 17-3 victory. If we can get 100+ yards rushing, I see Iowa eeking out a 17-13 win.

There is a small part of me that wants to see Brian Ferentz give the AD the finger on the way out the door with an offensive outburst, but I just don't think we have the horses to pull it off.

Iowa might win simply because UT isnt a good team. UT lost to every decent to good team they played this year, and a really bad one in UF.

 

[VolBricks]

in the ESPN FPI:
TN is ranked 17, KY is ranked 34, FL is ranked 38 and Iowa is 41, USCe is ranked 42. If Iowa=USCe then I do not see how we lose this game. I know we had a "Revenge" factor with USCe but I just think we are the more talented and better coached team.

 

[sjt18]

Obviously, if the Vol coaching staff doesn't read my "Wanna beat Iowa?" post

From the UT games I've watched, Milton doesn't appear to be overly mobile, but really has a nice release and throws a fairly accurate ball. He's going to need to be patient. If not, he will throw a couple picks and that will greatly benefit an Iowa offense that can't seem to get out of their own way.

Milton has very good straight line speed and is most effective in designed runs. He's been better of late when breaking the pocket but that's not his thing.

The problem with your strategy so far is that Milton throws the ball about 20 yards further than anyone else. Iowa is a zone D so their zone has to cover the deepest receiver on every play with at least two guys. That creates massive holes underneath and in the mid range... not to mention the WR screens UT lives on.

I could see Iowa establishing a run game. This would go a long way to helping the offense as it would open up the play-action pass game.

I know you probably don't want to hear the "SEC is better" line of arguments... BUT... UT has only been hurt by the opponent run game once all year vs Mizzou. The front 7 wasn't healthy. They will be vs Iowa. UT has been more vulnerable to the pass... and Iowa is so far a pretty awful passing team.... last by a lot in the Big 10, right?

And Iowa was 11th in the Big 10 in rushing in spite of playing in the weak West.

Play action generally depends on your receivers having enough athleticism to take advantage of a little hesitation. Since your best WR appears to be 48th in the Big 10 in ypg @19... I'm going to guess that's not very fertile ground. Teams have hurt UT regularly by finding holes in their zone. That's a better bet.

Not trying to beat on you but unless Banks shows complete incompetence... your O should actually struggle more than usual.

Iowa needs to get ahead early, or avoid getting down by two scores.

True. And their O needs to find a way to stay on the field. Three and outs will be a poison pill.

I don't see the overall team speed on offense you guys had the last time you took us out behind the woodshed (shudder).

UT is faster @RB. Can't say for certain about WR. UT is faster on D.

I think/hope our defense will put on a much better performance this time around. Our D-line is quite salty and has done a good job of batting down passes and stuffing good rushing attacks.

That will help if you can do it. But the whole design of UT's O is to spread the D out then run through the natural holes.

You guys run a bunch of quick release passes, which could give soft zone coverage fits. You may see Iowa play two deep zone/man under quite a bit to try to take this away, but that goes against trying to avoid the big play. In 900 snaps, the defense has only allowed 18 plays of 20 yards or more this year.

Not sure but that would be risky for sure. The WR screens are an extension of the run game. The QB just counts hats. If the D plays tight to stop the run then they throw the screen as an automatic. If coverage shifts out then they run it. Whoever plays that "edge" between the OT and sideline is under stress all the time. They have to be fast. They have to be quick and accurate with their reads. They only have to be one step out of position or slow for UT to bust a big one.

I will be surprised if Iowa does anything different. They've had success with it. Ferentz believes in it. I'm not sure how creative they can get in just a couple of weeks to change a lot.

Remember the name Sampson. When your zone drops out trying to cover the distance Milton can throw it... they'll leave Sampson room to operate underneath. He's one of the fastest players in the SEC.

I really think this game comes down to FG success. Whoever misses will lose. If we can't get any offense going (which is a very distinct possibility), I see you guys walking away with a 17-3 victory. If we can get 100+ yards rushing, I see Iowa eeking out a 17-13 win.

If it comes down to FGs then something will be badly off for UT.

The Vols are going to run 3 plays a minute. Iowa is going to do all they can to run clock. If UT can score and take that away then Iowa can keep it close. If not... it will be worse than last time.

There is a small part of me that wants to see Brian Ferentz give the AD the finger on the way out the door with an offensive outburst, but I just don't think we have the horses to pull it off.

Your O has been anemic in a weak division. It has produced less than 300 yds in 10 of your 13 games and eclipsed 400 only once in the last two years. I can't say what all of your problems are but "horses" are probably the biggest factor. Unfortunately for you, UT has pretty good horses and especially with a fairly healthy roster.... which they should be closer by January 1.

Again, not trying to abuse you but this just looks like a really unfortunate draw for Iowa.

 

[Hacksaw]

Iowa might win simply because UT isnt a good team. UT lost to every decent to good team they played this year, and a really bad one in UF.

Same can be said for Iowa (substituting Minnesota for UF). UF was a road game that we probably win at Neyland. Iowa lost to Minnesota at home.

 

[dobre_shunka]

Iowa has 1033 yards more in punts than total offense for the year; 3123 offensive yards and punted for 4,156 yards,

If Tennessee can get some good punt returns and hopefully a TD off one, that will be huge. But with an offense as bad as theirs, the punt team has a had a lot practice and Iowa's punt defense is also pretty good.

 

[ftsandersvol]

If the Missouri version of the Vols shows up in Orlando, we will be in for a long afternoon.

 

[BrewHawk]

Milton has very good straight line speed and is most effective in designed runs. He's been better of late when breaking the pocket but that's not his thing.

The problem with your strategy so far is that Milton throws the ball about 20 yards further than anyone else. Iowa is a zone D so their zone has to cover the deepest receiver on every play with at least two guys. That creates massive holes underneath and in the mid range... not to mention the WR screens UT lives on.

I know you probably don't want to hear the "SEC is better" line of arguments... BUT... UT has only been hurt by the opponent run game once all year vs Mizzou. The front 7 wasn't healthy. They will be vs Iowa. UT has been more vulnerable to the pass... and Iowa is so far a pretty awful passing team.... last by a lot in the Big 10, right?

And Iowa was 11th in the Big 10 in rushing in spite of playing in the weak West.

Play action generally depends on your receivers having enough athleticism to take advantage of a little hesitation. Since your best WR appears to be 48th in the Big 10 in ypg @19... I'm going to guess that's not very fertile ground. Teams have hurt UT regularly by finding holes in their zone. That's a better bet.

Not trying to beat on you but unless Banks shows complete incompetence... your O should actually struggle more than usual.

True. And their O needs to find a way to stay on the field. Three and outs will be a poison pill.

UT is faster @RB. Can't say for certain about WR. UT is faster on D.

That will help if you can do it. But the whole design of UT's O is to spread the D out then run through the natural holes.

Not sure but that would be risky for sure. The WR screens are an extension of the run game. The QB just counts hats. If the D plays tight to stop the run then they throw the screen as an automatic. If coverage shifts out then they run it. Whoever plays that "edge" between the OT and sideline is under stress all the time. They have to be fast. They have to be quick and accurate with their reads. They only have to be one step out of position or slow for UT to bust a big one.

I will be surprised if Iowa does anything different. They've had success with it. Ferentz believes in it. I'm not sure how creative they can get in just a couple of weeks to change a lot.

Remember the name Sampson. When your zone drops out trying to cover the distance Milton can throw it... they'll leave Sampson room to operate underneath. He's one of the fastest players in the SEC.

If it comes down to FGs then something will be badly off for UT.

The Vols are going to run 3 plays a minute. Iowa is going to do all they can to run clock. If UT can score and take that away then Iowa can keep it close. If not... it will be worse than last time.

Your O has been anemic in a weak division. It has produced less than 300 yds in 10 of your 13 games and eclipsed 400 only once in the last two years. I can't say what all of your problems are but "horses" are probably the biggest factor. Unfortunately for you, UT has pretty good horses and especially with a fairly healthy roster.... which they should be closer by January 1.

Again, not trying to abuse you but this just looks like a really unfortunate draw for Iowa.

I get it, hence my 17-3 prediction.

So you're saying your current RBs are faster than Hurd and Kamara? I'm not seeing that when I watch your games. If you're saying the Vol RBs are faster than the Iowa RBs, I would argue with that as well.

We know what we're bringing into this game. Our offensive success rests on the play of the OL, which has not been good for most of the season. They did improve in run blocking, but Michigan's D was too much to overcome. I don't think UT's D is as good as Michigan's. Obviously, hard to apply any sort of transitive property.

We have played some man D, just more typically a cover six zone. The LBs do a good job in pass coverage as well. I think/hope you will be impressed by this year's version of the Iowa D. I think the Tax Slayer and Rose Bowl disasters made our DC change his philosophy a bit and an example of that would be the rise of players like Sebastian Castro (and your Titan's Amani Hooker).

 

[kckempf]

I get it, hence my 17-3 prediction.

So you're saying your current RBs are faster than Hurd and Kamara? I'm not seeing that when I watch your games. If you're saying the Vol RBs are faster than the Iowa RBs, I would argue with that as well.

We know what we're bringing into this game. Our offensive success rests on the play of the OL, which has not been good for most of the season. They did improve in run blocking, but Michigan's D was too much to overcome. I don't think UT's D is as good as Michigan's. Obviously, hard to apply any sort of transitive property.

We have played some man D, just more typically a cover six zone. The LBs do a good job in pass coverage as well. I think/hope you will be impressed by this year's version of the Iowa D. I think the Tax Slayer and Rose Bowl disasters made our DC change his philosophy a bit and an example of that would be the rise of players like Sebastian Castro (and your Titan's Amani Hooker).

Kamara didn't play against you, but Marlin Lane did. Hurd measured 4.47 in the 40 before the draft, Wright might be a bit faster. Wright had long touchdown runs against Georgia, Kentucky, and South Carolina among others. Sampson has run 4.32 40 and ran a 10.48 100 yard dash in a track competition. Milton isn't as fast but he's a very powerful runner and doesn't fade on long runs, so he seems faster once he's moving.

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

The only thing I am worried about is the OL. AP hinted at guys like Davis, Lampley and Lane playing. He said Wright and Small won’t play and it will likely be Sampson and Seldon. While they are both explosive, that OL lineup may not be able to open up holes for them.

 

[FBtime]

The only thing I am worried about is the OL. AP hinted at guys like Davis, Lampley and Lane playing. He said Wright and Small won’t play and it will likely be Sampson and Seldon. While they are both explosive, that OL lineup may not be able to open up holes for them.

Interesting...why would they not play?

 

[KTrain]

Obviously, if the Vol coaching staff doesn't read my "Wanna beat Iowa?" post

From the UT games I've watched, Milton doesn't appear to be overly mobile, but really has a nice release and throws a fairly accurate ball. He's going to need to be patient. If not, he will throw a couple picks and that will greatly benefit an Iowa offense that can't seem to get out of their own way.

I could see Iowa establishing a run game. This would go a long way to helping the offense as it would open up the play-action pass game.

Iowa needs to get ahead early, or avoid getting down by two scores.

I don't see the overall team speed on offense you guys had the last time you took us out behind the woodshed (shudder). I think/hope our defense will put on a much better performance this time around. Our D-line is quite salty and has done a good job of batting down passes and stuffing good rushing attacks. You guys run a bunch of quick release passes, which could give soft zone coverage fits. You may see Iowa play two deep zone/man under quite a bit to try to take this away, but that goes against trying to avoid the big play. In 900 snaps, the defense has only allowed 18 plays of 20 yards or more this year.

I really think this game comes down to FG success. Whoever misses will lose. If we can't get any offense going (which is a very distinct possibility), I see you guys walking away with a 17-3 victory. If we can get 100+ yards rushing, I see Iowa eeking out a 17-13 win.

There is a small part of me that wants to see Brian Ferentz give the AD the finger on the way out the door with an offensive outburst, but I just don't think we have the horses to pull it off.

I think he has just thrown 5 this year and maybe just 7 his total 3 years here he does a lot of things not up to par but he protects the ball fairly well. He did hit a RB blocker with a throwing motion that turned into a fumble. He has ran a bit better toward end of year but he's still very robotic but if he gets out in the open he has some straight line speed ran a 82 yard straight line untouched TD one game this year.

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

Interesting...why would they not play?

Well AP didn’t give a whole lot of reasons so maybe he is wrong. He said he didn’t know about Mincey. He did say it’s looking more like Mays and Spraggs are coming back but doubt they would play.

 

[JRich]

How Iowa might win?

Simple, Joe and company don't get first downs. That has been this team's demise all season. Three and out, defense tires (or gives up), UT loses.

 

[JohnWardForever]

How Iowa might win?

Simple, Joe and company don't get first downs. That has been this team's demise all season. Three and out, defense tires (or gives up), UT loses.

Played that scene a lot TY. IF Mays & Sprags don't play, Iowa's Dline will smother the Offense.

 

[sjt18]

I get it, hence my 17-3 prediction.

I think you are being extremely optimistic to think that Iowa's D will effectively be as good against UT as UGA.

So you're saying your current RBs are faster than Hurd and Kamara? I'm not seeing that when I watch your games. If you're saying the Vol RBs are faster than the Iowa RBs, I would argue with that as well.

Faster? Yes. Not necessarily better but Wright and Sampson both have elite speed. FWIW, Wright is first among SEC RBs in ypc. He leads UGA's Milton by more than a ypc. At 7.19... he'd be by far and away the leader in the Big 10 too. He's one of the best players you've never heard of in CFB this year.

We know what we're bringing into this game. Our offensive success rests on the play of the OL, which has not been good for most of the season. They did improve in run blocking, but Michigan's D was too much to overcome. I don't think UT's D is as good as Michigan's. Obviously, hard to apply any sort of transitive property.

Don't know. UT played a more difficult SOS than Michigan. But has it taken an elite D to stop Iowa this year? UT may or may not be better on D than Michigan... but they're a LOT better than the likes of Rutgers, Western Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, et al

We have played some man D, just more typically a cover six zone. The LBs do a good job in pass coverage as well.

Iowa plays very good assignment D and gets the most out of their players. But looking honestly at your schedule, you've played only two teams that are equal to or better than UT athletically- PSU and Michigan. It would be a challenge if Heupel were "normal" when it comes to O. He isn't. He's going to spread your D all over the field, challenge deep, and then give playmakers opportunities in space. That's just a difficult challenge for your guys.

I think/hope you will be impressed by this year's version of the Iowa D.

Anxious to see but I hope you haven't overestimated based on how they played against teams like Purdue and Nebraska.

I think the Tax Slayer and Rose Bowl disasters made our DC change his philosophy a bit and an example of that would be the rise of players like Sebastian Castro (and your Titan's Amani Hooker).

There's a temptation when looking at games to say this guy matches talent with that guy.... then believe the talent is equal or close. UT is more talented than Iowa. Doesn't mean the Vols win. But they are more talented. Where that counts most isn't with one or two player comparisons. It is by comparing the two deep rotations.

 

[Zues1]

Iowa might win if the Vols team falls into a crater.
UT will smoke them.

 

[Run-da-ball-vol]

Wait till 3rd down and run 4 verts. Rinse and repeat lol

 

[FBtime]

Well AP didn’t give a whole lot of reasons so maybe he is wrong. He said he didn’t know about Mincey. He did say it’s looking more like Mays and Spraggs are coming back but doubt they would play.

Weird have never heard of players coming back but not playing the bowl game unless there is an injury involved we don't know about. Maybe AP is just wrong here.

 

[vol94fan]

Iowa has a better chance to win than some think. They have a stingy defense, and the Vols offense has been known to go silent for long periods of time. The Vols defense should do well, but if we can't get the offense going then Iowa could win a 10-7 type game. If the Vols offense shows up, then it will be lights out for Iowa.

 

[OrngeJuiceJones]

Iowa has a better chance to win than some think. They have a stingy defense, and the Vols offense has been known to go silent for long periods of time. The Vols defense should do well, but if we can't get the offense going then Iowa could win a 10-7 type game. If the Vols offense shows up, then it will be lights out for Iowa.

no way they hold us to that low output no matter what.

 

[kckempf]

Interesting...why would they not play?

Wright because he could go pro this year and wouldn't gain anything.

 

[temptn]

If the Missouri version of the Vols shows up in Orlando, we will be in for a long afternoon.

Iowa does not have a Schrader.

 

[ftsandersvol]

Iowa does not have a Schrader.

H*ll, it doesn’t take a Schrader against that version of the Vols. I could have gained 300 yards receiving and rushing in that game.