How Iowa might win

#26
#26
kckempf said:
Wright because he could go pro this year and wouldn't gain anything.
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I understand of course "opt outs" not playing but there is nothing resembling concrete info to suggest the players he mentioned are going pro.
 
#27
#27
sjt18 said:
I think you are being extremely optimistic to think that Iowa's D will effectively be as good against UT as UGA.

Faster? Yes. Not necessarily better but Wright and Sampson both have elite speed. FWIW, Wright is first among SEC RBs in ypc. He leads UGA's Milton by more than a ypc. At 7.19... he'd be by far and away the leader in the Big 10 too. He's one of the best players you've never heard of in CFB this year.

Don't know. UT played a more difficult SOS than Michigan. But has it taken an elite D to stop Iowa this year? UT may or may not be better on D than Michigan... but they're a LOT better than the likes of Rutgers, Western Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, et al

Iowa plays very good assignment D and gets the most out of their players. But looking honestly at your schedule, you've played only two teams that are equal to or better than UT athletically- PSU and Michigan. It would be a challenge if Heupel were "normal" when it comes to O. He isn't. He's going to spread your D all over the field, challenge deep, and then give playmakers opportunities in space. That's just a difficult challenge for your guys.

Anxious to see but I hope you haven't overestimated based on how they played against teams like Purdue and Nebraska.

There's a temptation when looking at games to say this guy matches talent with that guy.... then believe the talent is equal or close. UT is more talented than Iowa. Doesn't mean the Vols win. But they are more talented. Where that counts most isn't with one or two player comparisons. It is by comparing the two deep rotations.
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Wow, you really want every last scrap, don't you.

My comment about the defense is related more to scheme than it is to players. We have transitioned from a 4-3 to a 4-2-5 to get more speed on the field.

Guess we'll see what happens NYD. It might very well be a bloodbath again, but I, for one, highly doubt it.
 
#28
#28
BrewHawk said:
Wow, you really want every last scrap, don't you.
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Just being realistic. Iowa can win. But they aren't as talented and they got to where they are playing in a very weak division.
BrewHawk said:
My comment about the defense is related more to scheme than it is to players. We have transitioned from a 4-3 to a 4-2-5 to get more speed on the field.

Guess we'll see what happens NYD. It might very well be a bloodbath again, but I, for one, highly doubt it.
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It may be close. Iowa might even win. But the smart money is on something entirely different just based on talent. But then you have to look at the style match up. UT is a team with a lot more speed than Iowa. Then they're going to spread Iowa out and stretch them from sideline to sideline and deeper than they've been stretched all year.

On the other side, a decent SEC D will face off against a completely anemic offense.

Not trying to be hard on you. That's just where we sit right now.
 
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#30
#30
How Iowa might win (the simplified version):

Our entire starting five doesn’t show for the bowl game (unlikely but possible, likely down 3 out of 5)
 
#32
#32
Johnnyreb#VFL said:
In 900 snaps, the defense has only allowed 18 plays of 20 yards or more this year.

Insane stat. Also, one of the craziest CFB games I watched this year was the ending of your Nebraska game. I found myself a Hawkeye that day.

Beating UT is simple. Stop our run game, stop Milton.
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We will get multiple plays over 20 yards before the first quarter is over. Outside of Penn State and Michigan Iowa's schedule has been teams that would have issues beating Vandy. They have not seen an offense in the same zip code of ours. The last time we faced Iowa it was a similar theme. They were a top 10 defense we were a 6-6 team with a very up-and-down offense and suspect defense. The difference this year is our offense and defense are both significantly better. IIRC we dropped 48 on them that year. Yes we had Josh Dobbs but this offense, as a whole, is much better than that one.

The only way we lose to them is if we have multiple people who opt-out or check out. Or they spend the next month performing daily blood sacrifices.
 
#33
#33
vol94fan said:
Iowa has a better chance to win than some think. They have a stingy defense, and the Vols offense has been known to go silent for long periods of time. The Vols defense should do well, but if we can't get the offense going then Iowa could win a 10-7 type game. If the Vols offense shows up, then it will be lights out for Iowa.
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We tend to go silent for periods because the other team's offense goes on long drives. Iowa has punted for more than 1000 yards more than their offense has gained.... ill repeat that Iowa averages more yards punting per game than they do on offense.

Their offense has gained 3123 yards thats 240 a game
They have punted for 4156 yards or 320
Did I mention we have a guy who is a decent threat at punt returner? To a team that punts just over 6 a game. Dee Willams could single-handedly outscore Iowa on punt returns.
 
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#35
#35
BrewHawk said:
We have played some man D, just more typically a cover six zone. The LBs do a good job in pass coverage as well. I think/hope you will be impressed by this year's version of the Iowa D. I think the Tax Slayer and Rose Bowl disasters made our DC change his philosophy a bit and an example of that would be the rise of players like Sebastian Castro (and your Titan's Amani Hooker).
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Playing zone D against Josh Heupel? Umm look back at UT Vs bama 2022 that the last time I saw a team try playing zone the whole game against us. If they play Zone against us Squirrel White will posterize your safeties and become Jalin Hyatt 2.0 or our RB's will eat you alive. Pick your poison.
 
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#36
#36
pimo1 said:
Playing zone D against Josh Heupel? Umm look back at UT Vs bama 2022 that the last time I saw a team try playing zone the whole game against us. If they play Zone against us Squirrel White will posterize your safeties and become Jalin Hyatt 2.0 or our RB's will eat you alive. Pick your poison.
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Yeah, but we aren’t that team from 2022 and the athletes that made most all of those plays in 2022 aren’t here or are injured. Heupel has greatly simplified (reduced the complexity of) the offense into just a few plays to try and help JM3 out. We’ve seen what good defenses do to us this season and even against our weakest opponents, no one has become Hyatt 2.0 this season. I do not for a second think this game is in the bag. This is a game where they could frustrate our offense and wait for us to make a mistake. I think it will be low scoring. Over/under 29 pts., imo.
 
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#37
#37
Vol737 said:
Yeah, but we aren’t that team from 2022 and the athletes that made most all of those plays in 2022 aren’t here or are injured. Heupel has greatly simplified (reduced the complexity of) the offense into just a few plays to try and help JM3 out. We’ve seen what good defenses do to us this season and even against our weakest opponents, no one has become Hyatt 2.0 this season. I do not for a second think this game is in the bag. This is a game where they could frustrate our offense and wait for us to make a mistake. I think it will be low scoring. Over/under 29 pts., imo.
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If they play Zone against this offense we will roast them..period. Since that game teams have played pretty much press man on us which is one big reason we haven't seen Squirrel eating the hearts and minds of safeties. Do we have 5 TD's against Bama offense nah... but we certainly have 3 against Iowa if they FAFO. I will say this Iowa will not even be the 3rd best defense we have faced this season. Rankings don't take into account SOS. Bama, UGA, and MIssou are all better defenses than Iowa. Speed will kill.
 
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#39
#39
FBtime said:
I understand of course "opt outs" not playing but there is nothing resembling concrete info to suggest the players he mentioned are going pro.
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In response to a hypothetical. The original kernel, that Wright was opting out, was mentioned by someone who was quoting someone else who was quoting someone else! If Wright is opting out, I feel like it would be to go pro, not based on any inside information but on the fact that he ran for over 1000 yards and he's eligible for the draft.
 
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#40
#40
BrewHawk said:
Obviously, if the Vol coaching staff doesn't read my "Wanna beat Iowa?" post:cool:

From the UT games I've watched, Milton doesn't appear to be overly mobile, but really has a nice release and throws a fairly accurate ball. He's going to need to be patient. If not, he will throw a couple picks and that will greatly benefit an Iowa offense that can't seem to get out of their own way.

I could see Iowa establishing a run game. This would go a long way to helping the offense as it would open up the play-action pass game.

Iowa needs to get ahead early, or avoid getting down by two scores.

I don't see the overall team speed on offense you guys had the last time you took us out behind the woodshed (shudder). I think/hope our defense will put on a much better performance this time around. Our D-line is quite salty and has done a good job of batting down passes and stuffing good rushing attacks. You guys run a bunch of quick release passes, which could give soft zone coverage fits. You may see Iowa play two deep zone/man under quite a bit to try to take this away, but that goes against trying to avoid the big play. In 900 snaps, the defense has only allowed 18 plays of 20 yards or more this year.

I really think this game comes down to FG success. Whoever misses will lose. If we can't get any offense going (which is a very distinct possibility), I see you guys walking away with a 17-3 victory. If we can get 100+ yards rushing, I see Iowa eeking out a 17-13 win.

There is a small part of me that wants to see Brian Ferentz give the AD the finger on the way out the door with an offensive outburst, but I just don't think we have the horses to pull it off.
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If Tennessee decides to sleep walk through this game, Iowa MIGHT keep it close.
 
#41
#41
sjt18 said:
I think you are being extremely optimistic to think that Iowa's D will effectively be as good against UT as UGA.

Faster? Yes. Not necessarily better but Wright and Sampson both have elite speed. FWIW, Wright is first among SEC RBs in ypc. He leads UGA's Milton by more than a ypc. At 7.19... he'd be by far and away the leader in the Big 10 too. He's one of the best players you've never heard of in CFB this year.

Don't know. UT played a more difficult SOS than Michigan. But has it taken an elite D to stop Iowa this year? UT may or may not be better on D than Michigan... but they're a LOT better than the likes of Rutgers, Western Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, et al

Iowa plays very good assignment D and gets the most out of their players. But looking honestly at your schedule, you've played only two teams that are equal to or better than UT athletically- PSU and Michigan. It would be a challenge if Heupel were "normal" when it comes to O. He isn't. He's going to spread your D all over the field, challenge deep, and then give playmakers opportunities in space. That's just a difficult challenge for your guys.

Anxious to see but I hope you haven't overestimated based on how they played against teams like Purdue and Nebraska.

There's a temptation when looking at games to say this guy matches talent with that guy.... then believe the talent is equal or close. UT is more talented than Iowa. Doesn't mean the Vols win. But they are more talented. Where that counts most isn't with one or two player comparisons. It is by comparing the two deep rotations.
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Tennessee is more talented than Iowa, yet produces significantly less NFL players? LOL
 
#42
#42
Bazooka Joe shows out on these corn farmers for three quarters.
Nico lights em up in the fourth.
 
#44
#44
Pink Locker Room said:
Tennessee is more talented than Iowa, yet produces significantly less NFL players? LOL
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When we limp to Orlando with half our roster and still beat your team like a drum, will you finally admit we have more talent?
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#46
#46
Pink Locker Room said:
Tennessee is more talented than Iowa, yet produces significantly less NFL players? LOL
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Over the last 3 years (which is most relevant to this game), UT has produced 11 and Iowa has produced 7. This is as UT comes out of one of the worst dips in program history. Even judging by the CURRENT number of players in the NFL... Iowa has 29 and UT has 21. Following the absolute incompetence of Butch Jones and Jeremy Pruitt... it should embarrass you that UT is that close.

But that falls far short of an adequate assessment of talent. It isn't just the "stars" but more so the guys around them that won't go pro. UT will likely have more drafted in the next few years but let's say both average 4. That's 16 out of 85. Your problem isn't the 16... your problem is the 69 others.
 
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#47
#47
sjt18 said:
Over the last 3 years (which is most relevant to this game), UT has produced 11 and Iowa has produced 7. This is as UT comes out of one of the worst dips in program history. Even judging by the CURRENT number of players in the NFL... Iowa has 29 and UT has 21. Following the absolute incompetence of Butch Jones and Jeremy Pruitt... it should embarrass you that UT is that close.

But that falls far short of an adequate assessment of talent. It isn't just the "stars" but more so the guys around them that won't go pro. UT will likely have more drafted in the next few years but let's say both average 4. That's 16 out of 85. Your problem isn't the 16... your problem is the 69 others.
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add the numbers of players we lost to the portal and transferring, we will have ALOT more than 21.
 
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#49
#49
dobre_shunka said:
Iowa has 1033 yards more in punts than total offense for the year; 3123 offensive yards and punted for 4,156 yards,

If Tennessee can get some good punt returns and hopefully a TD off one, that will be huge. But with an offense as bad as theirs, the punt team has a had a lot practice and Iowa's punt defense is also pretty good.
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I read on ESPN that Iowa has more punting yards than like 33 fbs teams have on offense.
 
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