How Iowa might win

[Pink Locker Room]

Iowa's run game is decent. If Tennessee doesn't load up the LOS, Iowa will get yards on the ground and keep the UT offense on the sideline. Nico could have 2-3 ints if he tries to do too.much.

We both watched our defense all year. They are going to feast on a true frosh. Even one who some SEC boosters thought was worth $8 mil.

 

[TheFlash1971]

Both these teams are not very good overall. Tennessee has stunk vs teams with really good defenses, our offense is well very much like the a box of chocolates you seriously never know what you are gonna get. Iowa on the other hand has a very good bend but don’t break defense very disciplined. Offensively they are the worst 10-2 football team in the history of ncaa football. Basically this game will be like watching paint dry.
Tennessee 9
Iowa. 8

 

[Pink Locker Room]

Both these teams are not very good overall. Tennessee has stunk vs teams with really good defenses, our offense is well very much like the a box of chocolates you seriously never know what you are gonna get. Iowa on the other hand has a very good bend but don’t break defense very disciplined. Offensively they are the worst 10-2 football team in the history of ncaa football. Basically this game will be like watching paint dry.
Tennessee 9
Iowa. 8

I think both teams are definitely above average to good. Obviously we both would have liked to play better against the top dogs in our conferences (Ut vs Georgia, bama, mizzou, FL, and Iowa vs Mich, PSU).

But both teams are capable of competing with anyone when on their game.

 

[volsrock09]

We both watched our defense all year. They are going to feast on a true frosh. Even one who some SEC boosters thought was worth $8 mil.

It's perfectly fine to be confident in your defense. Statistically speaking this will be the 4th best offense you have faced this year. Is Iowa's defense a top 5 caliber defense? Not sure but looking at the offenses they faced I highly doubt it. The offenses in the Big 10 this year have been terrible. I'm willing to bet Bama's and UGA's defenses are much better. To put it in perspective, 4 out of the 5 top defenses reside in the Big 10......The offenses that Iowa faced this year in Pts/game are as follows according to 2023 College Football Team Offense | College Football at Sports-Reference.com:
Nebraska-123, Michigan State- 132, Illionois- 83, Rutgers-104, Northwestern- 106, Minnesota- 111, Wisconsin- 103, Purdue-87, Penn State- 12, Western Michigan- 91, Michigan- 14, Utah State- 30, Iowa State- 74.

Without looking at the other top 3 defensive teams schedules, it is probably more of the same. Iowa may very well come out on defense guns blazing playing lights out. If they don't, then the narrative will be they were only good on defense because they didn't play many good offenses.

 

[Vol865]

We both watched our defense all year. They are going to feast on a true frosh. Even one who some SEC boosters thought was worth $8 mil.

Your schedule is softer than elevator music. Of course the defense looked good.

 

[vavolfan6]

I don't see UT losing becuase in order to beat a Heupel team you have to make them pay for running tempo and going 3 and out. Outside of the Bama game which was in Tuscaloosa, the other three losses were a result of the other team getting up early on Tennessee and playing from ahead.

If Heupel doesn't have to worry about being too far down, the offense can continue to function properly and doesn't have to worry about the defense getting worn down.

 

[pimo1]

Iowa's run game is decent. If Tennessee doesn't load up the LOS, Iowa will get yards on the ground and keep the UT offense on the sideline. Nico could have 2-3 ints if he tries to do too.much.

CJH offenses do not really throw a lot of picks even back to his time at UCF

UCF (HC)
2018 7 funny aside his QB was McKenzie Milton (no relation)
2019 8
2020 4
Tennessee (HC)
2021 3
2022 3
2023 5
I think a large part of that is the offensive scheme itself. Part is the QB's Hendon Hooker for instance threw 5 in 2 years. Milton threw 5 in one and is considered a much less accurate QB than Nico.
Maybe you guys can trick him with some disguised coverages? But again there the way the offense works kinda protects from that. You guys look like a zone team and if you stick to that you might have some success stopping over-the-top plays but will get picked apart.

Iowa's run game averaged a little over 100 yards a game...I dunno how you define it but 1500 yards for 11 tds in 13 games is not keeping anyone in the SEC awake.

Looking at your schedule I can guarantee we are the third-best defense and probably second-best offense you guys have seen this year... even with the opt-outs and portal defections. Stats can kind of lie sometimes. UT was top at getting to the QB in the nation and our run defense was very solid. Our weakness on defense is irrelevant to you guys. Question I watched a few Iowa games and I saw some long 'gains' on passes but they were mostly of the RAC variety... how many times did you guys even attempt a pass that traveled more than 25 yards in the air? Thats begging for press man and pin ears back on the edge.

A perfect example of how stats can be misleading.

UT gave up 18 sacks pretty good right?
Iowa gave up 28 also seems ok?

Except for the fact UT had 390 pass attempts and Iowa had 323 so the difference is a lot more than it seems. That means UT gives up a sack on 4.6% of pass attempts. while Iowa does on 8.6% so you're getting sacked once every 11 or so dropbacks we get sacked once every 22ish

 

[pimo1]

Your schedule is softer than elevator music. Of course the defense looked good.

They literally played 2 games against P5 level talent. 2 ranked teams and you lost to Minnesota. UT's bad loss was to Florida a team that would have likely gone undefeated in the big10 west. Iowa's SOS is completely propped up by their championship game vs Michigan. I was more worried about the UTSA and Virginia games than this one which is to say not at all. Its not that I think those teams are better than Iowa its the that offense is so epically bad they have no chance against us. Youre defense is good for the big 10 but they are SLOW.........you play in the big10 where teams run out of the iform and 21 personnel with normal splits. We are gonna spread you out. The closest they have seen to our offense is Penn State a team that also got to stack stats on a weak schedule.. How did that turn out?

 

[BrewHawk]

They literally played 2 games against P5 level talent. 2 ranked teams and you lost to Minnesota. UT's bad loss was to Florida a team that would have likely gone undefeated in the big10 west. Iowa's SOS is completely propped up by their championship game vs Michigan. I was more worried about the UTSA and Virginia games than this one which is to say not at all. Its not that I think those teams are better than Iowa its the that offense is so epically bad they have no chance against us. Youre defense is good for the big 10 but they are SLOW.........you play in the big10 where teams run out of the iform and 21 personnel with normal splits. We are gonna spread you out. The closest they have seen to our offense is Penn State a team that also got to stack stats on a weak schedule.. How did that turn out?

Guess we'll see. I had Tennessee winning this 17-3 or 34-6 before everyone decided not to play. I think Iowa has a puncher's chance now. The game will come down to turnovers.

 

[pimo1]

Guess we'll see. I had Tennessee winning this 17-3 or 34-6 before everyone decided not to play. I think Iowa has a puncher's chance now. The game will come down to turnovers.

Outside of Tyler Baron the people not playing are not going to affect the outcome of this game enough to change the real deal. RB depth will hurt sure, The guys we lost in secondary are canceled out by the fact Iowa cant pass. I am ok with our 3rd string secondary vs your offense. Honestly even before this game if you told most UT fans we were gonna bench the guys that left in favor of the guys that are gonna play now in the secondary outside of slaughter and MacDonald they'd be like heck yeah. Even those 2 guys people had a favorite they wanted in over them. I am honestly not worried at all. I am so hyped for this darn game.

 

[BrewHawk]

Outside of Tyler Baron the people not playing are not going to affect the outcome of this game enough to change the real deal. RB depth will hurt sure, The guys we lost in secondary are canceled out by the fact Iowa cant pass. I am ok with our 3rd string secondary vs your offense. Honestly even before this game if you told most UT fans we were gonna bench the guys that left in favor of the guys that are gonna play now in the secondary outside of slaughter and MacDonald they'd be like heck yeah. Even those 2 guys people had a favorite they wanted in over them. I am honestly not worried at all. I am so hyped for this darn game.

Cool. No excuses.

 

[pimo1]

Cool. No excuses.

None.. Zero. I think pretty much all of VolNation would agree. Not only would losing this game be a loss giving up more than 14 points would be a loss. Over the last 2 years Iowa is hands down the worst offense I have ever seen in my life. I have been following college and NFL football since the 80's. I happen to have a coworker who is a huge OSU/Big10 fan so I have followed the big10 very closely for the last 4 years. Next year the big10 becomes a legit conference but until now its been the big3 in the east vs everyone else and the big10 West has been weak the past 3-4 years. The last time a team from the west won the big 10 was Wisconsin in 2010-2012 (they went on to lose in the rose bowl all 3 years) before that Iowaw tied with Michigan and Ohio state in 2004 and 2002 respectively before there was a playoff. Iowa split its 2 bowls following that. Historically the big 10 has been a 3 team conference and the gap between those 3 and everyone else is huge.

That all changes next year for you and you'll play in an actual competitive league where good teams will end up with losing records. Like the SEC. As bad as Vandy was this year they would have been at worst .500 if they played in the big10 west. I know this comes off as one way and its not meant to be honestly im just looking at the info thats out there. I will say you Iowa guys that have come to this board have been great and gracious. I know your feeling we just went through 12 years of hell and are coming out the other side. Your team is a completely different animal with McNamara, All, and Lachey healthy. All 3 of those guys likely play in the NFL at some point. Your punter is gonna need a leg transplant surgery after this season the dude has punted 80+ times the past 3 years he is 5th in career punting yardage since 2000 in the nation.... funny story 3 of the top 5 career punting yardage leaders are from the big 10 west and Rutgers has the number 2 guy they are all guys that have played recently. kinda wild

Punting Yards Career Leaders and Records | College Football at Sports-Reference.com

Punting Yards Career Leaders and Records

www.sports-reference.com

 

[Pink Locker Room]

None.. Zero. I think pretty much all of VolNation would agree. Not only would losing this game be a loss giving up more than 14 points would be a loss. Over the last 2 years Iowa is hands down the worst offense I have ever seen in my life. I have been following college and NFL football since the 80's. I happen to have a coworker who is a huge OSU/Big10 fan so I have followed the big10 very closely for the last 4 years. Next year the big10 becomes a legit conference but until now its been the big3 in the east vs everyone else and the big10 West has been weak the past 3-4 years. The last time a team from the west won the big 10 was Wisconsin in 2010-2012 (they went on to lose in the rose bowl all 3 years) before that Iowaw tied with Michigan and Ohio state in 2004 and 2002 respectively before there was a playoff. Iowa split its 2 bowls following that. Historically the big 10 has been a 3 team conference and the gap between those 3 and everyone else is huge.

That all changes next year for you and you'll play in an actual competitive league where good teams will end up with losing records. Like the SEC. As bad as Vandy was this year they would have been at worst .500 if they played in the big10 west. I know this comes off as one way and its not meant to be honestly im just looking at the info thats out there. I will say you Iowa guys that have come to this board have been great and gracious. I know your feeling we just went through 12 years of hell and are coming out the other side. Your team is a completely different animal with McNamara, All, and Lachey healthy. All 3 of those guys likely play in the NFL at some point. Your punter is gonna need a leg transplant surgery after this season the dude has punted 80+ times the past 3 years he is 5th in career punting yardage since 2000 in the nation.... funny story 3 of the top 5 career punting yardage leaders are from the big 10 west and Rutgers has the number 2 guy they are all guys that have played recently. kinda wild
View attachment 605536

Punting Yards Career Leaders and Records | College Football at Sports-Reference.com

Punting Yards Career Leaders and Records

www.sports-reference.com

The hell does this mean? I know UT is coming out of a hole the last 12 years, but the Hawkeyes are like 8th in the country in total wins the last 10 years.

 

[NeverWe'llSever]

It’s about turnovers and special teams. If Tennessee doesn’t turn the ball over, Tennessee wins this game by double digits. Iowa will not drive the length of the field consistently against Tennessee. Turnovers or bad plays in special teams that give Iowa short fields and free points will be where things get dicey.

And btw, I perused that message board you have. Y’all are a more cocky bunch than I thought lol. There seems to be this idea that Tennessee “hasn’t played a defense like Iowa” and Tennessee “won’t know what to do when Iowa hits them”. Y’all know we play Bama and Georgia every year, right? Lol. And Tennessee has some hard hitters on defense, too. James Pearce Jr will be the most athletic edge rusher you’ve faced. Period. That includes Michigan players.

 

[Pink Locker Room]

It’s about turnovers and special teams. If Tennessee doesn’t turn the ball over, Tennessee wins this game by double digits. Iowa will not drive the length of the field consistently against Tennessee. Turnovers or bad plays in special teams that give Iowa short fields and free points will be where things get dicey.

And btw, I perused that message board you have. Y’all are a more cocky bunch than I thought lol. There seems to be this idea that Tennessee “hasn’t played a defense like Iowa” and Tennessee “won’t know what to do when Iowa hits them”. Y’all know we play Bama and Georgia every year, right? Lol. And Tennessee has some hard hitters on defense, too. James Pearce Jr will be the most athletic edge rusher you’ve faced. Period. That includes Michigan players.

I thought he was arrested? He’s playing?

 

[pimo1]

The hell does this mean? I know UT is coming out of a hole the last 12 years, but the Hawkeyes are like 8th in the country in total wins the last 10 years.

in the big 10 west.... thats like saying Liberty is a national power for roflstomping teams that don't even have pages on espn each year. If we could play the likes of Vandy and Mississippi State 10 games a year we'd be in the top 10 in wins also even at our worst. The Big10 west is bad. Has Iowa been the historical cream of that crop? yes. You're a college team beating up on pee wee teams. What is Iowas record vs the big 3 the last 10 years? Last 10 years VS Michigan 2-4 you've only played them regular season 4 times in 10 years and went 2-2. In the last 10- years you have only had to face OSU 4 times all regular season 1-3. Penn state youve played 7 times in 10 years.. 2-5....in that period of time who were you beating? Not them and who else is on your schedule?

We play Bama, Georgia and Florida every year since I can remember. Plus whatever other ranked teams are in the SEC plus at least one my point is the level of competition is not the same. other ranked OOC team every year. UT is an time 12-5 vs the big 10. in the last 10 years 5-1 and we got feelings about that Purdue game.

mcubed.net : NCAA Football : Conference Series Records : Tennessee vs. Big Ten

 

[JCHateSteve]

I thought he was arrested? He’s playing?

Charges dropped against Tennessee defensive end James Pearce Jr.

Charges were dropped.

 

[BreatheUT]

Outside of Tyler Baron the people not playing are not going to affect the outcome of this game enough to change the real deal. RB depth will hurt sure, The guys we lost in secondary are canceled out by the fact Iowa cant pass. I am ok with our 3rd string secondary vs your offense. Honestly even before this game if you told most UT fans we were gonna bench the guys that left in favor of the guys that are gonna play now in the secondary outside of slaughter and MacDonald they'd be like heck yeah. Even those 2 guys people had a favorite they wanted in over them. I am honestly not worried at all. I am so hyped for this darn game.

You are disillusioned if you think we can miss most of our 2 deep in our secondary and be ok. It's a blown coverage or 3 or 4 waiting to happen. If Iowa gets any semblance of a passing game going then the secondary will be on its heels. The best hope is Iowa stick with their regular season offensive game plan and don't attempt a bunch of junk/trick plays to confuse the back 4. We already know our LB has trouble in coverage.

 

[pimo1]

You are disillusioned if you think we can miss most of our 2 deep in our secondary and be ok. It's a blown coverage or 3 or 4 waiting to happen. If Iowa gets any semblance of a passing game going then the secondary will be on its heels. The best hope is Iowa stick with their regular season offensive game plan and don't attempt a bunch of junk/trick plays to confuse the back 4. We already know our LB has trouble in coverage.

They have not gotten a semblance of a passing game going in 2 years.. Their 2 pass catchers are out....their starting QB right now is basically the walkon version of Jared Lorenzen. We are fine. They threw for under 100 yards as a team 4 times...they threw for 200+ once. I am not scared of a team that has averaged 123 yards a game passing against our 4th string. That is not delusion its applying common sense. If they score they will move the ball on the ground. Anytime Hill is trying to push the ball he throws picks.

Ask the Iowa guys if they think they have any chance of beating us through the air...they won't, their chances are on the ground. This dude has thrown 5 tds all year 4 of those came with a pick included.
TE Erick All (out for bowl game) 2 TD 22 yards 13 yards
TE Addison Estranga (likely Starter) 2 tds 4 yards and 2
WR Kaleb Brown 1 TD 10 yards

If they had McNamara, All, and their number 1 TE Luke Lachey it's a different story and I'm shaking in my boots. When your deep threats all weigh over 250lbs I'm not that worried. And its easy to cover passes over the middle when you know for a fact that's whats coming because its all they have. 69 of their 161 completions went to tight ends. 755 of their 1601 passing yards and 6 of their 9 td's. and most of those yards are either in the transfer portal, opted out for NFL or injured.

 

[pimo1]

Reading back this thread is funny

 

[DeadByDaylightFan]

Tennessee is more talented than Iowa, yet produces significantly less NFL players? LOL

This aged well

 

[Orange931]

Reading back this thread is funny

Glad we don’t have to deal with that pink locker room person anymore. The disrespect on the opposing teams board was comical.

 

[Jaxon_Vol2017]

Well, Iowa's chances for winning just went up significantly. We're not the defense an inexperienced QB should be cutting his teeth on.

Guess many of you are getting what you want with Nico starting. If he can keep from getting greedy he will likely do fine.

Also, he needs to be smart on his runs to stay healthy. #29 is lurking.

 

[sjt18]

I get it, hence my 17-3 prediction.

So you're saying your current RBs are faster than Hurd and Kamara? I'm not seeing that when I watch your games. If you're saying the Vol RBs are faster than the Iowa RBs, I would argue with that as well.

Would you still? FTR, I believe Sampson does have a better 40 time than Hurd or Kamara did. Seldon supposedly ran a 10.4 100m in HS. That is also faster than Hurd or Kamara.

We know what we're bringing into this game. Our offensive success rests on the play of the OL, which has not been good for most of the season. They did improve in run blocking, but Michigan's D was too much to overcome. I don't think UT's D is as good as Michigan's. Obviously, hard to apply any sort of transitive property.

UT's D isn't as good as Michigan's. That is still as true today as it was when you wrote it. However without the yardage put up by your back up QB in trash time... UT would have held your O to less yardage than Michigan did. Three teams shut you out this year. PSU and Michigan are the other two. That's pretty good company for a D missing a lot of starters from the season. Bright outlook for the Vols on D though.

We have played some man D, just more typically a cover six zone. The LBs do a good job in pass coverage as well. I think/hope you will be impressed by this year's version of the Iowa D.

Actually, I am as impressed as I thought I would be. Your D has some studs. The two LBs were pretty much the only thing that kept the Vols from making it a complete laugher. The problem is all the players around them vs the players UT had across the LOS.

I think the Tax Slayer and Rose Bowl disasters made our DC change his philosophy a bit and an example of that would be the rise of players like Sebastian Castro (and your Titan's Amani Hooker).

Having stars surrounded by role players who are more or less on par with the typical B1G West opponent works in those games.

I don't hate Iowa at all. I live in MO and work for a company with several locations in Iowa. I have a lot of friends in Iowa because of it. I really love the people I've met in Iowa. To be honest, the reputation of the U of Iowa as Chicago West University makes me favor ISU more... but I like Iowa. The problem for schools across the Midwest is homegrown talent. There isn't enough and definitely not enough to go around. Missouri has started producing more talent but it is typically going to Mizzou or another SEC school. The Chicago City schools do not produce the talent you'd expect. The suburbs produce some talent but again not enough. The Twin Cities produces some talent. But competing for those guys you have Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, ISU, Illinois, ND, Michigan, MSU, Purdue, Indiana,...

That leaves you looking for scraps in FL, GA, TX, and CA. That's just not a formula to make you competitive in a game like this one or an opponent like UT.

 

[tigers68]

Obviously, if the Vol coaching staff doesn't read my "Wanna beat Iowa?" post

From the UT games I've watched, Milton doesn't appear to be overly mobile, but really has a nice release and throws a fairly accurate ball. He's going to need to be patient. If not, he will throw a couple picks and that will greatly benefit an Iowa offense that can't seem to get out of their own way.

I could see Iowa establishing a run game. This would go a long way to helping the offense as it would open up the play-action pass game.

Iowa needs to get ahead early, or avoid getting down by two scores.

I don't see the overall team speed on offense you guys had the last time you took us out behind the woodshed (shudder). I think/hope our defense will put on a much better performance this time around. Our D-line is quite salty and has done a good job of batting down passes and stuffing good rushing attacks. You guys run a bunch of quick release passes, which could give soft zone coverage fits. You may see Iowa play two deep zone/man under quite a bit to try to take this away, but that goes against trying to avoid the big play. In 900 snaps, the defense has only allowed 18 plays of 20 yards or more this year.

I really think this game comes down to FG success. Whoever misses will lose. If we can't get any offense going (which is a very distinct possibility), I see you guys walking away with a 17-3 victory. If we can get 100+ yards rushing, I see Iowa eeking out a 17-13 win.

There is a small part of me that wants to see Brian Ferentz give the AD the finger on the way out the door with an offensive outburst, but I just don't think we have the horses to pull it off.

You could've made this alot shorter had you just said..."If Tennessee doesn't get off the bus." Cause that's the only way those stiffs from Iowa were going to win. By forfeit.