So I wanted to look at this from a different angle. I wanted to see if there was any pattern to recruiting and national championships. It appears that only 1 team, Texas in 2005, beat a team with a higher recruiting average.
So, I looked at the BCS championship teams recruiting average since 2005:
2005: Texas (13.5)
2006: Florida (7.25)
2007: LSU (8.75)
2008: Florida (5.25)
2009: Alabama (5.75)
2010: Auburn (12.25)
2011: Bama (2)
2012: Bama (2)
TEAM AVERAGE RECRUITING: 7.09
Using these teams as a measuring stick would suggest that to win the national championship the team needs to have 1) a four year recruiting average of around 7.09, but no lower than 13.5. and 2) a higher four year recruiting average than their opponent and 3) a minimum of at least one 1st or 2nd ranked class within four years of a championship.
Of the 8 teams, 3 won a championship within four years of a 1st ranked recruiting class; 2 others won a championship within four years of a 2 ranked recruiting class, 1 team won it within 3 years of a 2nd ranked recruiting class and one team won it within 2 years of a 1st ranked recruiting class.
All of the teams, except Auburn, had at least one 1st or 2nd ranked class.
The two anomalies in this study are Texas and Auburn. Texas is the only team to beat a team with a higher ranked four year average (I think) and is the lowest ranked in this bunch, and Auburn was the only team to not have a top 2 class in their four year average.
I wonder if that correlation is directly related to the ability of a star mobile quarterback to be a game changer? The answer, if you are wondering, is yes.
If you remove the anomalous Auburn and Texas from the averages, you find that the average four year trailing recruiting class required for a championship jumps up to 5.2.
Our 1998 national championship team also conforms quite closely to that statistical pattern in terms of prior recruiting ratings.
We signed the 2nd, 12th, 3rd and 5th best classes in succession from 1994-1997, which would give us an annual ranking for that period of 5.5. Documentation for that assertion can be found in the following article:
Tennessee Football Recruiting: The 10 Greatest Recruiting Classes Since 1980 | Bleacher Report. For a review of the headline members of those classes, I provide the following excerpts:
1994: Rivals No. 2 Class. The 1994 class was revered because it boasted two of the top quarterback prospects in the country. When future NFL Hall of Famer Peyton Manning became the choice early in the 1994 season, the second of that duo, Brandon Stewart, transferred. This class didn't feature a ton of stars. Between Marcus Nash, Terry Fair, Jonathan Brown and, of course, Manning there's plenty of starpower to land this group among the top two ever at Tennessee. The '94 signing class was a part of three bowl wins and an SEC title.
1995: Rivals No. 12 Class. A class that included such Vols royalty as Chad Clifton, Leonard Little and Peerless Price was the senior class that experienced the Vols national title in 1998.
This class was a part of three bowl wins, two SEC titles and, of course, the 1998 BCS title.
1996: Rivals No. 3 Class. Shaun Ellis, Darwin Walker, Eric Westmoreland, Raynoch Thompson and Tee Martin were all members of this class. Those names are hallowed in Knoxville as the core group of players that landed Tennessee its first consensus national championship since 1951. . . . This class experienced two bowl wins, two SEC titles and the first-ever BCS National Championship.
1997: Rivals No. 5 Class. The best way to begin this slide is with a list of names.
Deon Grant
Travis Henry
Jamal Lewis
Travis Stephens
Andre Lott
Cedrick Wilson
Cosey Coleman
David Martin
Recognize any or all of those names? One is the all-time leading rusher in Tennessee history (Henry). Another (Grant) is currently in his 12th year in the NFL. Lewis was one of the NFL's leading rushers for nearly half a decade. There is over 70 years of NFL experience from this signing class. All of these players were integral pieces of the Vols' championship run in '98. Members of this class won two SEC titles and one national championship.
