How long will it take to be a championship team?

#101
#101
RichRollin said:
So according to your logic Bama, ND, Texas, Oklahoma, and USC should never have risen back to the top after being down for a decade or more. I mean...when ND was good in the early 90s...do these recruits remember that? Nah I don't think they do. Oklahoma was down for ages. Stoops came in and won a NC in no time! But I'm sure he couldn't recruit because they had been irrelevant for over a decade. How would the kids remember who Ok was? how long was USC down before Caroll? I'm sure them dudes didn't remember the Rodney Pete days, LMAO!

I'll go a bit further and ask you this. If kids don't remember who UT is, how the hell did UF ever get good? I mean you had a century of NOTHING to hang your hat on, then suddenly became dominant. Those kids could have been a hundred years old and still wouldn't remember the glory days of UF. Because THERE WERE NONE!!!! In comes a kick ass coach named Spurrier who knocked off a few teams and had recruits believing and the rest is history. To think Florida can go from being a never has been to national contender, yet UT, Neb, etc have winning tradition oozing out of their arse can't get back to the top...LOL. Well that's just typical LawGator thinking. Me and anyone who has dealt with this dude is use to it.

Bottom line, the right coach can easily elevate UT to a NC. I'll go on record as saying the same for Nebraska, Michigan, USC,etc.
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The key word in your statement is "decade."
 
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#102
#102
daj2576 said:
I actually looked at this for a blog post that I wrote recently. I wanted to see how long it took before a coach won a national championship, and I arbitrarily chose the past 20 years as a sample size.

Here is what I wrote:

Let us look at a list of all Coaches in the past 20 years who have won a National Championship.

Bobby Bowden, Florida State (1993/1997/1999)
Tom Osborne, Nebraska (1994/1995)
Steve Spurrier, Florida (1996)
Lloyd Carr, Michigan (1997)
Phillip Fulmer, Tennessee (1998)
Bob Stoops, Oklahoma (2000)
Larry Coker, Miami (2001)
Jim Tressel, Ohio State (2002)
Nick Saban, <--the devil
Pete Carroll, USC (2004)
Mack Brown, Texas (2005)
Urban Meyer, Florida (2006/2008)
Les Miles, LSU (2007)
Gene Chizik, Auburn (2010)

The average number of years that any of these men coached at a school before they won their first national championship was 5.9. If you remove the two late bloomers from the list, Bowden and Osborne, the average drops to 2.6 years.

What does this illustrate?

In 20 years, 86% of coaches who won a national championship averaged 2.6 years from being hired to winning it all. The two others (14%) averaged 19 years from their start to the national championship.
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Except that in many cases those coaches were inheriting teams that had a pretty solid foundation.

Not so at UT, imo.
 
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#104
#104
skasper06 said:
I think most Vol fans would agree that Butch gets it. Every thread I have read has someone posting that he does...but how long will it take for him to get us back to SEC/National championship form?

2 years? 5 years?

I'm going to say we have an 8 win season within 3 years... And a 10+ win season within 5 years... Once his recruits have come in and have established themselves in CBJ's system we will be there.

Even further... how long until we beat Alabama and Florida?
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Whenever Butch learns that you must recruit defensive players to win in the SEC. So far we are looking like a finesse team.
 
#105
#105
he has 6 years to have at least 1 national title and a sec title in the bag. even though i aint the biggest fulmer fan he did it in six no reason butch can't.
 
#106
#106
lawgator1 said:
The key word in your statement is "decade."
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No, the key word is CENTURY. If UF can become relevant after being irrelevant for a CENTURY, why couldn't UT become relevant again after being down for a DECADE? see what I did there? And the argument could be made that UT hasn't been down for a decade.
 
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#107
#107
RichRollin said:
No, the key word is CENTURY. If UF can become relevant after being irrelevant for a CENTURY, why couldn't UT become relevant again after being down for a DECADE? see what I did there? And the argument could be made that UT hasn't been down for a decade.
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You're just feeding a troll. A troll who wants us to believe he is a lawyer? It seems unlikely that this poster could have passed the (very) basic, elementary logic portion of the LSAT. But, then again, Florida is notorious for its high number of bad law schools.
 
#108
#108
RichRollin said:
No, the key word is CENTURY. If UF can become relevant after being irrelevant for a CENTURY, why couldn't UT become relevant again after being down for a DECADE? see what I did there? And the argument could be made that UT hasn't been down for a decade.
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While UT has had some decent moments in the last 10 years it would be a weak argument.

UT ranks 45 in win percentage at 57% and no conference titles. That's well below UT's historical win %.
 
#109
#109
RichRollin said:
No, the key word is CENTURY. If UF can become relevant after being irrelevant for a CENTURY, why couldn't UT become relevant again after being down for a DECADE? see what I did there? And the argument could be made that UT hasn't been down for a decade.
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We might be arguing past each other.

I of course agree that UT can rise to national title level again. You have the facilities and the money to do it. Jury is out on the coach -- I honestly do not know enough about him to have an opinion on that.

Talent-wise, you are way behind the curve. Why is it so hard for people to just admit that? I've only seen a very few coaches who have been able to turn around the talent situation in a matter of 2-3 years, which is what some on here seem to be contemplating. Saban and Meyer come to mind, and really Meyer inherited some solid defensive talent from Zook, so that may not even be a good example.

In the final analysis, my thinking is that you can have a great facility, fans, and a solid coach. But its the players that tell the story and while UT can point to a handful of guys who have some ability, you have nowhere near the depth that you need to be able to compete across a whole season with the SEC.

That is not going to suddenly be fixed in 2-3 years. I am thinking more like 5-6.
 
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#111
#111
lawgator1 said:
Except that in many cases those coaches were inheriting teams that had a pretty solid foundation.

Not so at UT, imo.
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................5*......4*.....3*...2*.....avg/85
Georgia......3.......30.....29....4.......2.7
Florida.......7.......33.....18....2.......2.65
Tennessee..0......25.....31.....6......2.41
SCAR.........1......17.....35.....6......2.24
Missouri.....1.......7......47.....6......2.19
Kentucky....0......3.......46....17.....2.17
Vanderbilt...0.......4......43....14.....2.04

Here is a rough list of the latent talent on all of the rosters in the SEC east using the schools published spring roster. This shows that Tennessee, even when accounting for attrition, has the third most talent laden roster.

I think there is a better foundation than most would believe.
 
#112
#112
daj2576 said:
................5*......4*.....3*...2*.....avg/85
Georgia......3.......30.....29....4.......2.7
Florida.......7.......33.....18....2.......2.65
Tennessee..0......25.....31.....6......2.41
SCAR.........1......17.....35.....6......2.24
Missouri.....1.......7......47.....6......2.19
Kentucky....0......3.......46....17.....2.17
Vanderbilt...0.......4......43....14.....2.04

Here is a rough list of the latent talent on all of the rosters in the SEC east using the schools published spring roster. This shows that Tennessee, even when accounting for attrition, has the third most talent laden roster.

I think there is a better foundation than most would believe.
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How is it that Kentucky, and Vandy have more 3 stars than UT? That baffles me.
 
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#113
#113
daj2576 said:
................5*......4*.....3*...2*.....avg/85
Georgia......3.......30.....29....4.......2.7
Florida.......7.......33.....18....2.......2.65
Tennessee..0......25.....31.....6......2.41
SCAR.........1......17.....35.....6......2.24
Missouri.....1.......7......47.....6......2.19
Kentucky....0......3.......46....17.....2.17
Vanderbilt...0.......4......43....14.....2.04

Here is a rough list of the latent talent on all of the rosters in the SEC east using the schools published spring roster. This shows that Tennessee, even when accounting for attrition, has the third most talent laden roster.

I think there is a better foundation than most would believe.
Click to expand...

I'll bet you $100 these facts will fly right over the heads of most.
 
#115
#115
lawgator1 said:
We might be arguing past each other.

I of course agree that UT can rise to national title level again. You have the facilities and the money to do it. Jury is out on the coach -- I honestly do not know enough about him to have an opinion on that.

Talent-wise, you are way behind the curve. Why is it so hard for people to just admit that? I've only seen a very few coaches who have been able to turn around the talent situation in a matter of 2-3 years, which is what some on here seem to be contemplating. Saban and Meyer come to mind, and really Meyer inherited some solid defensive talent from Zook, so that may not even be a good example.

In the final analysis, my thinking is that you can have a great facility, fans, and a solid coach. But its the players that tell the story and while UT can point to a handful of guys who have some ability, you have nowhere near the depth that you need to be able to compete across a whole season with the SEC.

That is not going to suddenly be fixed in 2-3 years. I am thinking more like 5-6.
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Two posts after you wrote this, someone with solid credibility basically disputed your talent theory. It's not where it needs to be. But it's nowhere near as far off as you and others make it to be. What Tennessee is really missing is a game changer IMO. Add a SERIOUS legit game changer to the current roster and I think it changes quite a bit.
 
#117
#117
lawgator1 said:
How is it that Kentucky, and Vandy have more 3 stars than UT? That baffles me.
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Serious inquiry: explain to me why that question matters. Those teams also have more 3 star players than Florida.

At first blush it would seem that you have presupposed that UT's roster is more heavily skewed towards 3 and 2 stars. That incorrect assumption when coupled with your subjective viewing of the talent under Dooleys (in)capable hands lead you to conclude that talent at Tennessee was much lower than it is. Don't be ashamed of that feeling, that is the same evaluation that key preseason magazines will dazzle you with.

Or perhaps I just misunderstand your point?
 
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#118
#118
Boca Vol said:
While UT has had some decent moments in the last 10 years it would be a weak argument.

UT ranks 45 in win percentage at 57% and no conference titles. That's well below UT's historical win %.
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How much did that win % dip due to the past 5 years. I'll agree the program has trended downwards the past ten years. But are you saying that we've been totally irrelevant for the past ten years? To the point that recruits don't know and respect who we are? Because that's the argument at hand between LG and I.
 
#120
#120
RichRollin said:
Two posts after you wrote this, someone with solid credibility basically disputed your talent theory. It's not where it needs to be. But it's nowhere near as far off as you and others make it to be. What Tennessee is really missing is a game changer IMO. Add a SERIOUS legit game changer to the current roster and I think it changes quite a bit.
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:)
 
#122
#122
RichRollin said:
I'll bet you $100 these facts will fly right over the heads of most.
Click to expand...

Pushing that data out into the wilds of Volnation actually scares me a bit. I haven't vetted it well, and I created it in a hurry. That means there could be some minor inconsistencies in the numbers, but I think it paints the general picture pretty effectively.
 
#123
#123
daj2576 said:
Well lets make it fair then, I will take that bet if you take this one:

I bet you 100$ that the sun will set this evening, right before it gets dark outside.

Deal?
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You trying to hustle me?


On the other hand....I'd say we have a solid core of talent. Not extraordinary, not bad. One thing that's being overlooked however, is the # of upperclassmen we have. When was the last time we have had a solid core of upperclassmen? We've lacked talent and leadership for sometime now. Our upperclassmen have been thru hell and back. Many have been vastly undercoached.
South Carolina for instance...they don't have more baseline talent overall. They do have a gamechanger, but the real deal is that they've been coached the hell up. So what...just what if Butch and company coach what we have up?
 
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#124
#124
lawgator1 said:
FSU is playing in the ACC. I'm sure we'd all agree that is a much, much weaker conference than the SEC. How many BCS games has FSU played in the last 5 years or so? Florida?

Look, I agree FSU made some strides the last 3 years, but they are already stalling out, losing players, controversy. And in the meantime, on the field, they are still losing one or two games every year that they are supposed to win.

Florida is not regularly competing for the BCS title, I'd agree. But Florida seems to be in the discussion at least every few years. That's the kind of sustained, long term success I'm talking about. Florida is there. FSU is not.
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Huh? FSU was clearly the better program in the 90s. UF was better in the 00s, while Bowden was pretty much semi-retired. But, this decade, FSU has been better (both overall record and head to head) and there's no reason to suspect that won't continue. And no one has really been touting UF for a national championship much since Tebow left. Your original argument that FSU was two tiers below UF is just the usual moronic gator trolling.
 
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#125
#125
Not getting involved in the argument, but Florida has been in 7 bcs bowls

FSU has been to 5
 
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