Hubert Davis on Tennessee....

#27
#27
Big Orange Bo said:
We are currently outside the top 100 in the RPI. I will take your word for it because I am not sure, but at top 40 RPI seems HIGHLT, HIGHLY unlikely if not impossible. We have 4 losses to teams outside the top 100 RPI....
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We had that last year too.

Southern Cal had three losses outside the top 200 and still got an at-large.

You're right in that it won't happen with the RPI we have right now, but we still have two teams with very good records on the schedule. There are chances for upward movement.
 
#28
#28
bleedingTNorange said:
its not my opinion its a fact

have fun exploring this site...

Live-RPI.com

if you click on tennessee and then with conference tourney it will give you every scenario that we could finish and an approximate as to where our rpi would be.
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Why do you keep going back to that. That conference tourney section is bullcrap since they don't know who you will play. Think about this, if we lose one game RPI is 79 according to RPIforcast. No problem with that. Probably then get the 5th seed. Then we beat the 12th seed. RPI goes down to 75 on that win if that. Then we play the 4th seed and our RPI is expected to go down 30 positions into the 40s? I don't think so. We got to win out the regular season get the 2 or 3 seed. Or we can beat Kentucky in the tournament.
 
#29
#29
Volsbackto1998 said:
Why do you keep going back to that. That conference tourney section is bullcrap since they don't know who you will play. Think about this, if we lose one game RPI is 79 according to RPIforcast. No problem with that. Probably then get the 5th seed. Then we beat the 12th seed. RPI goes down to 75 on that win if that. Then we play the 4th seed and our RPI is expected to go down 30 positions into the 40s? I don't think so. We got to win out the regular season get the 2 or 3 seed. Or we can beat Kentucky in the tournament.
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they take averages, what would the average be of each team you would play at this point. so if we got a bye and played a worse rpi team than they project it wouldnt be as much of an increase for us, if we played a better rpi team than they projected we would jump higher than they projected.

its an average, not meant to be an exact. its very simple if you play a highe rpi team it will go higher than what they projected, if they play a lower rpi team it wont raise up nearly as much. pretty simple really.

there projections are pretty spot on, if you think that if we go 5-0 end up 18-12, and go 2-1 in sec t making us 20-13 that we wont be in the 40's you are flat out wrong.
 
#30
#30
bleedingTNorange said:
they take averages, what would the average be of each team you would play at this point. so if we got a bye and played a worse rpi team than they project it wouldnt be as much of an increase for us, if we played a better rpi team than they projected we would jump higher than they projected.

its an average, not meant to be an exact. its very simple if you play a highe rpi team it will go higher than what they projected, if they play a lower rpi team it wont raise up nearly as much. pretty simple really.

there projections are pretty spot on, if you think that if we go 5-0 end up 18-12, and go 2-1 in sec t making us 20-13 that we wont be in the 40's you are flat out wrong.
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No, I'm fine with the 5-0 prediction because we will be a 2 or 3 seed playing the 6/7 then the 2/3. Beating those teams will get us there.
My problem is the 4-1 prediction. Where do you see us being seeded if we finish 4-1?
 
#31
#31
Volsbackto1998 said:
Why do you keep going back to that. That conference tourney section is bullcrap since they don't know who you will play. Think about this, if we lose one game RPI is 79 according to RPIforcast. No problem with that. Probably then get the 5th seed. Then we beat the 12th seed. RPI goes down to 75 on that win if that. Then we play the 4th seed and our RPI is expected to go down 30 positions into the 40s? I don't think so. We got to win out the regular season get the 2 or 3 seed. Or we can beat Kentucky in the tournament.
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Our remaining games and estimated rpi boost from each with win:

@Alabama RPI of 36....+15
Ole Miss RPI of 71....+7
@ S Carolina RPI of 176...+5
@LSU RPI of 67...+10
Vanderbilt RPI of 26...+10

Our current RPI of 106-47= new RPI of 59

im no expert, but thats about how i see as does rpiforecast, so move on to sec t, if we get a 2 seed these are the teams we could face and each gain from those teams...

rd 1: bye
rd 2: Alabama RPI of 38...+12
or
Auburn RPI of 150...+7
rd 3: Vanderbilt RPI of 26...+15
or
Arkansas RPI of 80...+10
or
Georgia RPI of 110...+8


so best case is you gain 27 spots in the sec t as i see it, and worst case scenario is you gain 15 spots. so if we win out the season rpiforecast says we'll be a 63. subtract 27 thats potentially a RPI of 36 at highest or lowest of 48.

so how is it that their projection of 45 is that far off?
 
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#32
#32
Volsbackto1998 said:
No, I'm fine with the 5-0 prediction because we will be a 2 or 3 seed playing the 6/7 then the 2/3. Beating those teams will get us there.
My problem is the 4-1 prediction. Where do you see us being seeded if we finish 4-1?
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it depends who the loss is too. i think 4-1 we stil get 4th place and a bye. BUT i think either florida or vandy lose a few and we end up hurdling one of those 2 if we go 4-1 and end up in 3rd place.
 
#34
#34
Volsbackto1998 said:
?
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if we go 4-1 and lose to lsu on the road i see us still getting that same 2 or 3 seed. so our rpi at season end with the record being 17-13 would be 78. if you use the same gains from the prior post the biggest gain would be 27 and the lowest would be 15.

thatd put us at between 51 and 63, and rpiforecast says we'd be 54 so once again they're right in the middle of what the average is.



also one other thing to keep in mind is that i am using vanderbilt as the other team to get a bye in our bracket. if it was florida in our bracket instead, the gain would be a bit more over that of vanderbilt.
 
#35
#35
Volsbackto1998 said:
Why do you keep going back to that. That conference tourney section is bullcrap since they don't know who you will play. Think about this, if we lose one game RPI is 79 according to RPIforcast. No problem with that. Probably then get the 5th seed. Then we beat the 12th seed. RPI goes down to 75 on that win if that. Then we play the 4th seed and our RPI is expected to go down 30 positions into the 40s? I don't think so. We got to win out the regular season get the 2 or 3 seed. Or we can beat Kentucky in the tournament.
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I think that stuff is already built into the tourney section. The formula runs itself out for the other games based on Sagarin's predictions. Then it would seed the tourney (or take a best guess at it) then solve the RPI equation again. For the scenario you put forth going 4-1 getting and getting a 5 seed. The projected RPI going in is 78.6. Then you win 1 against a bad team on a neutral site, and then win another against a decent team, and finally loose in the Semi's to a pretty good team. Which would make UT 19-14. Tourney projection for that is 55.5. That seems about right to me. Where are you getting that playing the 4 seed would take UT from the 70's to the 40's? Rpiforcast or from someone in the thread?
 
#36
#36
So 4th seed gets us a bye and then play the 5th seed. RPI goes from 79 to 65? Then play Kentucky. RPI >60


3rd seed(Not likely) gets us a bye and then play the 6th seed. RPI goes from 79 to 70? Then we play the 2nd seed and RPI goes from 70 to 55. Then we play Kentucky RPI >55.
And also if there are any upsets our RPI is even lower. The point I am trying to make again is that it is not FACT that our RPI will be 40's low 50's if we go 4-1 + 2. It could be anywhere from 40's to 70's depending who we play in the tournament.
 
#37
#37
zansdad said:
I think that stuff is already built into the tourney section. The formula runs itself out for the other games based on Sagarin's predictions. Then it would seed the tourney (or take a best guess at it) then solve the RPI equation again. For the scenario you put forth going 4-1 getting and getting a 5 seed. The projected RPI going in is 78.6. Then you win 1 against a bad team on a neutral site, and then win another against a decent team, and finally loose in the Semi's to a pretty good team. Which would make UT 19-14. Tourney projection for that is 55.5. That seems about right to me. Where are you getting that playing the 4 seed would take UT from the 70's to the 40's? Rpiforcast or from someone in the thread?
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personally i think 4-1 gets us a bye as long as the loss isnt to vanderbilt. either florida is gonna lose a couple and we hold the tie breaker or vandy will lose a couple and to us. JMO though.
 
#38
#38
Volsbackto1998 said:
So 4th seed gets us a bye and then play the 5th seed. RPI goes from 79 to 65? Then play Kentucky. RPI >60


3rd seed(Not likely) gets us a bye and then play the 6th seed. RPI goes from 79 to 70? Then we play the 2nd seed and RPI goes from 70 to 55. Then we play Kentucky RPI >55.
And also if there are any upsets our RPI is even lower. The point I am trying to make again is that it is not FACT that our RPI will be 40's low 50's if we go 4-1 + 2. It could be anywhere from 40's to 70's depending who we play in the tournament.
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i just broke it down for you above, if we go 4-1 and 2-1 it will be between 50 and 65 at the absolute most. what is it your saying?

i get what you are saying that i said we'd be high 40's low 50's and that thats a fact. the point i was trying to make was we'd be a bubble team and could get in that that was the fact, because the op was saying winning it all was the only way.

personally i think if the right things happen between now and then we could get into the 40's in that scenario. if we lose to lsu, but beat vandy i think our rpi will be a bit higher than the 78 that they project us at.
 
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#39
#39
zansdad said:
I think that stuff is already built into the tourney section. The formula runs itself out for the other games based on Sagarin's predictions. Then it would seed the tourney (or take a best guess at it) then solve the RPI equation again. For the scenario you put forth going 4-1 getting and getting a 5 seed. The projected RPI going in is 78.6. Then you win 1 against a bad team on a neutral site, and then win another against a decent team, and finally loose in the Semi's to a pretty good team. Which would make UT 19-14. Tourney projection for that is 55.5. That seems about right to me. Where are you getting that playing the 4 seed would take UT from the 70's to the 40's? Rpiforcast or from someone in the thread?
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Bleeding posted that the fact is that if we finish 4-1 and win 2 in the conference that our RPI would be in the 40s. In my post, if we're a 5th seed, I was saying that beating a 12th seed isn't going to help much at all and there was no way beating a 4 seed is going to get you into the 40's from the 70's.
 
#41
#41
Volsbackto1998 said:
So 4th seed gets us a bye and then play the 5th seed. RPI goes from 79 to 65? Then play Kentucky. RPI >60


3rd seed(Not likely) gets us a bye and then play the 6th seed. RPI goes from 79 to 70? Then we play the 2nd seed and RPI goes from 70 to 55. Then we play Kentucky RPI >55.
And also if there are any upsets our RPI is even lower. The point I am trying to make again is that it is not FACT that our RPI will be 40's low 50's if we go 4-1 + 2. It could be anywhere from 40's to 70's depending who we play in the tournament.
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Not sure where your getting the RPI's for each tourney result. The page only makes predictions based on the final record. So if for instance you took the record for being 19-13 which gives and rpi of 62.7 and tried to make that apply to going 17-13 in regular season and then winning the first two in the SECt, it would be incorrect. The 19-13 record is based on finishing the season 5-0(18-12) and then going 1-1 in the tourney for a 19-13 record. I don't know how far off they would be but they would be off. Not sure if this is what your doing or not, just trying to figure out where you keep getting the numbers for games in the tourney before the end of the season.
 
#42
#42
Volsbackto1998 said:
Bleeding posted that the fact is that if we finish 4-1 and win 2 in the conference that our RPI would be in the 40s. In my post, if we're a 5th seed, I was saying that beating a 12th seed isn't going to help much at all and there was no way beating a 4 seed is going to get you into the 40's from the 70's.
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Oh, okay that should be easy enough. That would make UT's final record 19-14 which is a projected RPI of 55.5. Easy-peasy and like you said, not in the 40's.

Edit: The only scenarios I see getting UT in the 40's or lower is to reach the SECt title game.
 
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#43
#43
Volsbackto1998 said:
Bleeding posted that the fact is that if we finish 4-1 and win 2 in the conference that our RPI would be in the 40s. In my post, if we're a 5th seed, I was saying that beating a 12th seed isn't going to help much at all and there was no way beating a 4 seed is going to get you into the 40's from the 70's.
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i didnt say we'd be in the 40's i said high 40's or low 50's, with this scenario we'd be aroun d 55, so this big a deal is being made over 5 spots???

but ok if we were a 5

rd 1: south carolina +7
rd 2: miss st +13

we would be projected at 78 rpi +20 gain from sec makes us a 58. i still think if we lose to lsu and win vs vandy 78 will be more like 72, making this scenario a 52.

the point that i was trying to make in my OP if you go back and look was that with this scenario we could get in, and that we dont have to win the sec t to get in, that was all.
 
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#44
#44
zansdad said:
Oh, okay that should be easy enough. That would make UT's final record 19-14 which is a projected RPI of 55.5. Easy-peasy and like you said, not in the 40's.
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in my post i said high 40's low 50's, as i have stated i still think our end of season rpi can be higher if we lose at lsu and win vs vanderbilt. which would bump us into low 50's thats all, its a matter of a 6 spot difference that this big a deal is being made over, 55 to 49.

you dont see 5-0, and 2-1 making us 20-13 getting us into the 40's?
 
#45
#45
bleedingTNorange said:
i just broke it down for you above, if we go 4-1 and 2-1 it will be between 50 and 65 at the absolute most. what is it your saying?

i get what you are saying that i said we'd be high 40's low 50's and that thats a fact. the point i was trying to make was we'd be a bubble team and could get in that that was the fact, because the op was saying winning it all was the only way.

personally i think if the right things happen between now and then we could get into the 40's in that scenario. if we lose to lsu, but beat vandy i think our rpi will be a bit higher than the 78 that they project us at.
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This is how I see it if we go 4-1 +2:
Highly unlikely we get a 2nd or 3rd seed but if we do the RPI would be in your range of 50 to 65 if there are no upsets by lower seeds.

If we are a 4th seed then we only get one game before Kentucky and then our RPI would be in the high 60's if there isn't an upset.

If we are a 5th seed the first game is worthless and still be in the 60's.

What I am really getting at is don't point to the RPIforecast conference section to prove that we will be in the 40s/50s when there is a lot more to it then that website takes into account.
 
#46
#46
Volsbackto1998 said:
This is how I see it if we go 4-1 +2:
Highly unlikely we get a 2nd or 3rd seed but if we do the RPI would be in your range of 50 to 65 if there are no upsets by lower seeds.

If we are a 4th seed then we only get one game before Kentucky and then our RPI would be in the high 60's if there isn't an upset.

If we are a 5th seed the first game is worthless and still be in the 60's.

What I am really getting at is don't point to the RPIforecast conference section to prove that we will be in the 40s/50s when there is a lot more to it then that website takes into account.
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ok if we go in at 4-1 our rpi is 78
in your 1st scenario: if theres no upsets as you say we would gain 25 spots, thats a rpi of 53

in your second scenario(remember i said 2-1): if theres no upsets as you say we would gain 30 spots, that a rpi of 55. this is saying we beat UK which isnt gonna happen, but i did say if we go 4-1 and 2-1 and you in your above post did say +2 wins, which is this scenario.

in your third scenario: if theres no upsets as you say youd gain 18 spots putting rpi at 60.

there are only so many variables that can happen if we finish the season 4-1. all these scenarios and rpi i just posted are pretty spot on with what rpiforecast is projecting, as i said they are averaging between the different teams you may play.


so yes after all this going 4-1 would put our rpi somewhere between 50-60 if we entered in with a rpi of 78. as i stated already, i feel if we go 4-1, but lose at lsu and win vs vandy our rpi will actually be inside of 75 making these projections more like 45-55. either way, the whole point of what i said to the op, which is proven in this, is that going 4-1 and winning 2 gives you a chance to get in. he had said the only way is by winning the sec t, as you and i just proved, going 4-1 +2 definitely gets you into the talks.
 
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#47
#47
bleedingTNorange said:
in my post i said high 40's low 50's, as i have stated i still think our end of season rpi can be higher if we lose at lsu and win vs vanderbilt. which would bump us into low 50's thats all, its a matter of a 6 spot difference that this big a deal is being made over, 55 to 49.

you dont see 5-0, and 2-1 making us 20-13 getting us into the 40's?
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I do. That would be pretty straightforward. 2 or 3 seed
RPI 63 minus 6/7 seed win minus a 2/3 seed win would get us there. But again, any upsets would push that up.
 
#48
#48
Volsbackto1998 said:
I do. That would be pretty straightforward. 2 or 3 seed
RPI 63 minus 6/7 seed win minus a 2/3 seed win would get us there. But again, any upsets would push that up.
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even with upsets i think youd crack 40's in that scenario. even if you play the 11 and the 10 seed, which are both games the lowest seeds possible, our incoming rpi would be around 60 and those games would each boost you about 5 or spots each putting you right inside of 49 imo.

obviously for the 11 to beat the 6, the 11 to then beat the 3, and the 10 beat the 7 thatd take some crazy stuff. im gonna go on a limb and say that scenario has never happened, but jmo.
 
#49
#49
Alright, Big Orange Bo questioned your numbers on the first page and you responded with this:
bleedingTNorange said:
its not my opinion its a fact
have fun exploring this site...

Live-RPI.com

if you click on tennessee and then with conference tourney it will give you every scenario that we could finish and an approximate as to where our rpi would be.
Click to expand...

Are those numbers really facts? No, they are possible but there are many possibilities if we go 4-1 and the RPI numbers could range from 45 to 70 depending on how it plays out. Like I said before, don't point to those tournament forecasts to defend your position. Explain how you came to those numbers yourself.
 
#50
#50
bleedingTNorange said:
even with upsets i think youd crack 40's in that scenario. even if you play the 11 and the 10 seed, which are both games the lowest seeds possible, our incoming rpi would be around 60 and those games would each boost you about 5 or spots each putting you right inside of 49 imo.

obviously for the 11 to beat the 6, the 11 to then beat the 3, and the 10 beat the 7 thatd take some crazy stuff. im gonna go on a limb and say that scenario has never happened, but jmo.
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I agree.
 
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