No, I'm fine with the 5-0 prediction because we will be a 2 or 3 seed playing the 6/7 then the 2/3. Beating those teams will get us there.
My problem is the 4-1 prediction. Where do you see us being seeded if we finish 4-1?
I'll take this one.
A 4-1 finish puts us at 10-6. That's almost certainly behind Kentucky and Florida. It's ahead of Georgia, South Carolina, and Auburn.
Currently, four SEC teams have exactly 6 losses. I'm confident that Ole Miss and Arkansas will lose at least once more, so let's assume 10-6 puts us ahead of them.
So we'll be fighting Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Alabama, and LSU for spots 3 through 7. Obviously, 6 and 7 would be preferable to 5 (avoid Kentucky on Saturday).
I'll handle the remaining situations depending on the loss.
If the loss is to Alabama:
Vandy will lose @Tennessee and @Kentucky. Suppose they beat Florida at home. They finish 10-6, tied with Tennessee.
LSU will lose vs Tennessee. They finish with 7+ losses.
Mississippi State likely loses to Kentucky to give them 6 losses. They also play Alabama. If they win (and win their other three), they will be tied with Tennessee.
Alabama plays @Arkansas and vs Miss St. If they win both (and their other games), they will be tied with Tennessee.
Verdict: 2-3 way tie for 3rd. We win two-way tiebreaker over Vandy. MSU would win a tiebreaker with UT and Vandy, Vols 2nd. Vandy would win a tiebreaker with UT and Bama, Vols 3rd. Finish 3rd, 4th, or 5th. To finish 3rd, would need MSU to beat Bama and lose to Arkansas
If the loss is to LSU
Vandy loses to Tennessee and Kentucky, beats Florida at home, finishes 10-6.
LSU has a good chance of running the table (toughest game other than Vols is Ole Miss) to finish 10-6.
Bama loses to Tennessee, finishes with 7+ losses.
Miss St loses to Kentucky, can finish 10-6 with wins over Bama, Arkansas.
Verdict: 3-4 way tie for 3rd. Vols are 1-2 or 1-3 vs other tied teams. Finish 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th. We'd be rooting for LSU and Mississippi State to both win out to push us to 6th or both lose to push us to 3rd. If one wins out and the other loses a 7th game, we're in 4th or 5th
If the loss is to Vandy
Vandy finishes 11-5, third place.
LSU loses to Vols, has 7+ losses
Bama loses to Vols, has 7+ losses.
Miss St has a chance to finish 10-6.
Verdict: Either alone in 4th or tied for 4th with Miss St (lose the tiebreaker). Finish 4th or 5th. Play Kentucky in the semis if we make it that far.
Loss is to South Carolina or Ole Miss
Vandy loses to Vols and Kentucky, beats Florida, finishes 10-6.
LSU loses to Vols, has 7+ losses
Bama loses to Vols, has 7+ losses
Miss St has chance to finish 10-6.
Verdict: 2-3 way tie for 3rd. We win tiebreaker over Vandy, lose to Miss St. Finish 3rd or 4th. Need a Miss St loss (another one after their likely Kentucky loss) to secure 3rd.
That should clear things up. I hope.