I Created a CFB Ranking System

[perico]

Nope. This formula has nothing to do with odds, nor does it makes any predictions or take conference affiliation into account. And I rounded to 4 decimal places because I thought it looked better.

Makes sense. I make my living as a statistician and have worked on college football ratings systems before, which is why I was curious. Nice job.

 

[GVol1966]

Alabama still at #1 after a 2 touchdown loss to Auburn. Hmm

OP. Bamawriter. Hmmm

 

[bamawriter]

OP. Bamawriter. Hmmm

The formula is in the OP, if anyone doubts that it's unbiased.

 

[AirVol]

Is Bammer still #1?

 

[rjd970]

Crazy as it might sound, if Bama gets in the playoffs they could win the whole thing.

OSU will get destroyed in the semi’s, again.

My money is on Clemson. They are just soooo good.

 

[bamawriter]

Is Bammer still #1?

Haven't had a chance to update it yet. May have to wait til tomorrow.

 

[bamawriter]

Here we go. This will probably be the final ranking because it's really unlikely that Army-Navy will skew the numbers unless either team completely destroys the other.

WEEK 14 TOP 25 (with AP/Coaches/CFP):

1. Alabama (11-1) - 173.7085 (4/4/4)
2. UCF (12-0) - 173.4923 (10/10/12)
3. Georgia (12-1) - 173.4899 (3/3/3)
4. Clemson (12-1) - 171.2746 (1/1/1)
5. Ohio St (11-2) - 169.0152 (5/5/5)
6. Wisconsin (12-1) - 166.5934 (6/6/6)
7. Oklahoma (12-1) - 166.4117 (2/2/2)
8. Penn St (10-2) - 164.7964 (9/9/9)
9. Auburn (10-3) - 160.0049 (7/8/7)
10. Notre Dame (9-3) - 157.1285 (14/15/14)
11. Washington (10-2) - 150.8185 (12/12/11)
12. USC (11-2) - 149.8921 (8/7/8)
13. Miami (10-2) - 148.4708 (11/11/10)
14. Memphis (10-2) - 146.7234 (19/18/20)
15. Boise St (10-3) - 144.9695 (25/25/25)
16. FAU (10-3) - 143.8632 (UR/UR/UR)
17. TCU (10-3) - 143.3995 (13/13/15)
18. Toledo (11-2) - 141.0311 (UR/UR/UR)
19. Stanford (9-4) - 140.9707 (15/16/13)
20. Oklahoma St (9-3) - 139.7024 (17/17/19)
21. Virginia Tech (9-3) - 138.6758 (22/22/22)
22. San Diego St (10-2) - 137.6810 (UR/UR/UR)
23. Michigan St (9-3) - 137.6594 (18/19/16)
24. Mississippi St (8-4) - 136.8974 (24/23/23)
25. LSU (9-3) - 136.4672 (16/14/17)

 

[bamawriter]

Final Bowl Match-ups:

Sugar Bowl (CFP) - #1 Alabama vs. #5 Ohio St
Rose Bowl (CFP) - #3 Georgia vs. #4 Clemson

Peach Bowl (At-Large vs At-Large) - #9 Auburn vs. #2 UCF
Fiesta Bowl (At-Large vs At-Large) - #15 USC vs. #10 Notre Dame
Orange Bowl (ACC vs. SEC/Big 10/ND) - #13 Miami vs. #8 Penn St
Cotton Bowl (At-Large vs. At-Large) - #6 Wisconsin vs. #7 Oklahoma

 

[bamawriter]

The Rest of the SEC:

37. South Carolina (8-4) - 123.2193
47. Texas A&M (7-5) - 114.6399
55. Missouri (7-5) - 111.0712
56. Kentucky (7-5) - 110.4989
69. Ole Miss (6-6) - 102.1565
82. Florida (4-7) - 94.3681
88. Vanderbilt (5-7) - 90.3169
94. Arkansas (4-8) - 87.7683
97. Tennessee (4-8) - 81.8167

 

[bamawriter]

Bottom 10:

121. Hawaii (3-9) - 54.3986
122. Kent St (2-10) - 53.2057
123. Oregon St (1-11) - 49.9822
124. Texas St (2-10) - 49.7069
125. Charlotte (1-11) - 45.7263
126. Ball St (2-10) - 45.1615
127. Kansas (1-11) - 44.3396
128. Rice (1-11) - 44.0532
129. San Jose St (2-11) - 39.1603
130. UTEP (0-12) - 34.4485

 

[bamawriter]

Navy's loss actually caused UCF to slide behind UGA. So the top 2 in the country are both from the SEC. Other than that, no change.

 

[bamawriter]

Every team has at least 4 games in the books, so here's the first ranking of 2018 (with AP/Coaches):

1. LSU (5-0) - 189.2280 (5/6)
2. Alabama (5-0) - 188.3760 (1/1)
3. Notre Dame (5-0) - 185.8180 (6/7)
4. Clemson (5-0) - 181.1540 (4/4)
5. Ohio St (5-0) - 175.6400 (3/3)
6. Penn St (4-1) - 173.4860 (11/11)
7. Georgia (5-0) - 172.0360 (2/2)
8. NC State (4-0) - 166.8600 (23/25)
9. Kentucky (5-0) - 166.3040 (13/15)
10. West Virginia (4-0) - 160.8750 (9/8)
11. Stanford (4-1) - 160.2200 (14/14)
12. Oklahoma (5-0) - 157.5700 (7/5)
13. Army (3-2) - 157.2320 (UR/UR)
14. Auburn (4-1) - 156.1560 (8/9)
15. Miami (4-1) - 152.5140 (17/17)
16. Boise St (3-1) - 152.3425 (UR/24)
17. Washington (4-1) - 152.0180 (10/10)
18. Michigan St (3-1) - 150.3375 (20/19)
19. South Carolina (2-2) - 149.6525 (UR/UR)
20. South Florida (4-0) - 147.6050 (UR/UR)
21. Michigan (4-1) - 145.7520 (15/16)
22. Wisconsin (3-1) - 145.6175 (16/12)
23. Florida (4-1) - 145.0680 (22/UR)
24. Syracuse (4-1) - 144.5020 (UR/UR0
25. UCF (4-0) - 143.3975 (12/13)

Looking for anyone? Let me know.

 

[bamawriter]

The Rest of the SEC:

32. Missouri (3-1) - 138.3025
39. Texas A&M (3-2) - 129.9900
47. Mississippi St (3-2) - 126.6440
51. Vanderbilt (3-2) - 124.0600
52. Ole Miss (3-2) - 123.8100
79. Tennessee (2-3) - 101.2240
122. Arkansas (1-4) - 66.6800

 

[Hoosier_Vol]

I was halfway on board until Army and South Carolina

 

[bamawriter]

I was halfway on board until Army and South Carolina

They both have insanely high strengths of schedule.

 

[Vols1891]

Just curious...where do you have Oregon ranked?

 

[shotgun83]

I really like the metric "margin of victory" because if a team is ranked like Clemson, but their win to A&M was bogus, or Notre Dame squeezing by Vandy, or Ohio St squeaking bu Penn St,should hold weight and they should have fallen in rankings.

 

[MyBloodRunnethOrange]

I really like the metric "margin of victory" because if a team is ranked like Clemson, but their win to A&M was bogus, or Notre Dame squeezing by Vandy, or Ohio St squeaking bu Penn St,should hold weight and they should have fallen in rankings.

Ohio State should fall in the rankings for beating a top 10 team on the road? Are you serious?

 

[TrueOrange]

The Rest of the SEC:

32. Missouri (3-1) - 138.3025
39. Texas A&M (3-2) - 129.9900
47. Mississippi St (3-2) - 126.6440
51. Vanderbilt (3-2) - 124.0600
52. Ole Miss (3-2) - 123.8100
79. Tennessee (2-3) - 101.2240
122. Arkansas (1-4) - 66.6800

So Arkansas would only be above 8 other FBS teams in this rankings system, correct?

 

[bamawriter]

So Arkansas would only be above 8 other FBS teams in this rankings system, correct?

Yup. They are awful.

 

[bamawriter]

Just curious...where do you have Oregon ranked?

#48 with a score of 125.8580.

 

[bamawriter]

WEEK 6 Rankings (with AP/Coaches):

1. Clemson (6-0) - 188.2156 (4/4)
2. Alabama (6-0) - 185.8756 (1/1)
3. Penn St (4-1) - 178.4993 (8/8)
4. Notre Dame (6-0) - 177.1767 (5/5)
5. Ohio St (6-0) - 175.5106 (3/3)
6. Georgia (6-0) - 174.0478 (2/2)
7. LSU (5-1) - 169.3417 (13/12)
8. NC State (5-0) - 165.1880 (20/19)
9. West Virginia (5-0) - 157.5593 (6/6)
10. Florida (5-1) - 155.3161 (14/16)
11. Michigan (5-1) - 155.2294 (12/13)
12. Kentucky (5-1) - 152.6028 (18/20)
13. Oklahoma (5-1) - 152.6017 (11/11)
14. Army (3-2) - 151.9439 (UR/UR)
15. Miami (5-1) - 149.6967 (16/15)
16. UCF (5-0) - 148.9467 (10/9)
17. USF (5-0) - 148.7457 (23/23)
18. Texas (5-1) - 147.4211 (9/14)
19. South Carolina (3-2) - 146.0227 (UR/UR)
20. Stanford (4-2) - 142.9006 (UR/24)
21. Texas Tech (3-2) - 142.6513 (UR/UR)
22. Iowa (4-1) - 142.0600 (UR/UR)
23. Duke (4-1) - 140.4133 (UR/UR)
24. Texas A&M (4-2) - 139.8728 (22/22)
25. Auburn (4-2) - 137.7122 (21/21)

 

[bamawriter]

The Rest of the SEC:

27. Mississippi St (4-2) - 136.9100 (24/UR)
41. Ole Miss (4-2) - 126.6567
52. Missouri (3-2) - 122.5813
53. Vanderbilt (3-3) - 122.2850
83. Tennessee (2-3) - 101.1473
112. Arkansas (1-5) - 73.2433

 

[bamawriter]

Bottom 10 (forgot to do this last week):

121. Kent St (1-5) - 61.6089
122. New Mexico St (2-4) - 61.4661
123. Western Kentucky (1-4) - 60.6180
124. Rutgers (1-5) - 60.4689
125. Rice (1-5) - 58.6616
126. Old Dominion (1-5) - 54.5867
127. San Jose St (0-5) - 52.0966
128. Bowling Green (1-5) - 50.1028
129. UTEP (0-6) - 31.8289
130. Texas St (1-4) - 23.2660

Current Champions of Life (Lineal Title): Florida

 

[MyBloodRunnethOrange]

Army at 14? That's interesting!

Penn State ahead of OSU
LSU ahead of Florida
Oklahoma ahead of Texas