I Created a CFB Ranking System

[LouderVol]

Bottom 10 (forgot to do this last week):

121. Kent St (1-5) - 61.6089
122. New Mexico St (2-4) - 61.4661
123. Western Kentucky (1-4) - 60.6180
124. Rutgers (1-5) - 60.4689
125. Rice (1-5) - 58.6616
126. Old Dominion (1-5) - 54.5867
127. San Jose St (0-5) - 52.0966
128. Bowling Green (1-5) - 50.1028
129. UTEP (0-6) - 31.8289
130. Texas St (1-4) - 23.2660

Current Champions of Life (Lineal Title): Florida

how about UCLA and Nebraska? I would think they are pretty far down.

 

[bamawriter]

how about UCLA and Nebraska? I would think they are pretty far down.

Not as low as you'd think, due to SOS:

95. UCLA (0-5) - 90.0240
113. Nebraska (0-5) - 72.9993

 

[LouderVol]

Not as low as you'd think, due to SOS:

95. UCLA (0-5) - 90.0240
113. Nebraska (0-5) - 72.9993

they're below us. thats pretty dang far down.

 

[bamawriter]

they're below us. thats pretty dang far down.

Tennessee's SOS isn't bad, either.

 

[MyBloodRunnethOrange]

Army at 14? That's interesting!

Penn State ahead of OSU
LSU ahead of Florida
Oklahoma ahead of Texas

@bamawriter I'm still baffled at Army being #14. They've lost to the only 2 P5 teams they've played, Duke and OU.

 

[bamawriter]

@bamawriter I'm still baffled at Army being #14. They've lost to the only 2 P5 teams they've played, Duke and OU.

Yeah, Army is an interesting mathematical oddity.

Their SOS is a phenomenal 84.1019, which is behind only UCLA (109.5800), Nebraska (91.0533) and UConn (87.1500). Tulane rounds out the top 5 at 82.4167. You'll notice that Army is the only team in the Top 5 of SOS that currently has a winning record, and they gave both 6-1 Hawaii and 5-1 Buffalo their only losses so far.

That SOS is about to take a hit from here on out, as they have winless San Jose St, 2-4 Miami (OH), 2-4 Eastern Michigan, 2-3 Air Force, 2-3 Navy, and 2 FCS opponents.

 

[bamawriter]

WEEK 7 RANKINGS (with AP/Coaches):

1. Clemson (6-0) - 187.3640 (3/3)
2. Alabama (7-0) - 185.9792 (1/1)
3, LSU (6-1) - 176.1740 (5/5)
4. Notre Dame (7-0) - 173.0488 (4/4)
5. NC State (5-0) - 169.4023 (16/15)
6. Ohio St (7-0) - 166.9273 (2/2)
7. Michigan (6-1) - 165.4314 (6/7)
8. Oklahoma (5-1) - 159.7731 (9/10)
9. Florida (6-1) - 159.1669 (11/12)
10. Georgia (6-1) - 155.9856 (8/6)
11. Penn St (4-2) - 155.0640 (18/16)
12. UCF (6-0) - 152.7366 (10/9)
13. Texas (6-1) - 151.7406 (7/8)
14. Kentucky (5-1) - 151.3321 (14/17)
15. Army (4-2) - 149.5552 (UR/UR)
16. Duke (5-1) - 148.3881 (UR/UR)
17. Iowa (5-1)- 147.2269 (19/22)
18. Appalachian St (4-1) - 146.8717 (UR/UR)
19. Stanford (4-2) - 146.1958 (UR/24)
20. Texas A&M (5-2) - 144.5127 (17/18)
21. West Virginia (5-1) - 142.1045 (13/13)
22. Texas Tech (4-2) - 141.5223 (UR/UR)
23. Cincinnati (6-0) - 140.1283 (20/21)
24. Utah St (5-1) - 139.9167 (UR/UR)
25. Mississippi St (4-2) - 139.7751 (22/UR)

 

[bamawriter]

The Rest of the SEC:

44. Ole Miss (5-2) - 127.0265
51. South Carolina (3-3) - 123.9864
59. Auburn (4-3) - 117.1990
61, Missouri (3-3) - 116.4065
64. Vanderbilt (3-4) - 110.0599
71. Tennessee (3-3) - 106.5750
112. Arkansas (1-6) - 72.9749

 

[bamawriter]

The Bottom 10:

121. Old Dominion (1-6) - 570.138 (How did this team beat Va Tech?)
122. Rutgers (1-6) - 54.0151
123. Western Kentucky (1-5) - 53.3117
124. New Mexico St (2-5) - 53.1116
125. Rice (1-6) - 52.8844
126. Bowling Green (1-6) - 52.5638
127. Kent St (1-6) - 51.3103
128. San Jose St (0-6) - 47.3825
129. Texas St (1-5) - 37.8421
130. UTEP (0-6) - 29.6106

Current Champions of Life (Lineal Title): Florida

 

[LouderVol]

does your system account/weigh a team that plays fewer games? Looking at NC st they have played 5 to everyone elses 6 or 7. doesn't matter now but at the end of the season does it make an adjustment?

 

[bamawriter]

does your system account/weigh a team that plays fewer games? Looking at NC st they have played 5 to everyone elses 6 or 7. doesn't matter now but at the end of the season does it make an adjustment?

It's based on winning %, so if you're undefeated with 5 wins you get the same points as an undefeated team with 7 wins. It simply means that the other factors that accrue into the various averages each carry more weight.

 

[LouderVol]

It's based on winning %, so if you're undefeated with 5 wins you get the same points as an undefeated team with 7 wins. It simply means that the other factors that accrue into the various averages each carry more weight.

do you still tweak the system?

 

[bamawriter]

do you still tweak the system?

Nope.

 

[05_never_again]

The Bottom 10:

121. Old Dominion (1-6) - 570.138 (How did this team beat Va Tech?)

That's more of a question of Virginia Tech than Old Dominion. Absolutely insane.

 

[LouderVol]

Nope.

ok.

 

[bamawriter]

WEEK 8 RANKINGS (with AP/Coaches):

1. Clemson (7-0) - 192.0503 (2/2)
2. Alabama (8-0) - 187.2870 (1/1)
3. LSU (7-1) - 176.8842 (4/4)
4. Michigan (7-1) - 172.0082 (5/5)
5. Notre Dame (7-0) - 170.7563 (3/3)
6. Oklahoma (6-1) - 162.9131 (8/8)
7. NC State (5-1) - 158.4619 (22/22)
8. Georgia (6-1) - 156.3266 (7/6)
9. Florida (6-1) - 153.8778 (9/11)
10. Iowa (6-1) - 150.7001 (18/18)
11. UCF (7-0) - 150.4197 (10/10)
12. Penn St (5-2) - 148.6918 (17/16)
13. Texas A&M (5-2) - 148.1453 (17/16)
14. Appalachian St (5-1) - 147.8355 (25/UR)
15. Kentucky (6-1) - 147.0802 (12/14)
16. Ohio St (7-1) - 146.5225 (11/9)
17. Texas (6-1) - 146.3937 (6/7)
18. Army (5-2) - 146.2751 (UR/UR)
19. Stanford (5-2) - 145.0073 (24/23)
20. Utah (5-2) - 143.2132 (23/24)
21. Washington (6-2) - 143.1250 (15/13)
22. Texas Tech (5-2) - 140.5039 (UR/UR)
23. UAB (6-1) - 140.0756 (UR/UR)
24. Miami (5-2) - 139.7329 (UR/25)
25. West Virginia (5-1) - 139.5688 (13/12)

 

[bamawriter]

The Rest of the SEC:

35. Mississippi St (4-3) - 132.4248
41. Missouri (4-3) - 128.1867
44. South Carolina (3-3) - 126.5698
47. Auburn (5-3) - 125.8642
53. Ole Miss (5-3) - 121.9806
67. Vanderbilt (3-5) - 110.4605
74. Tennessee (3-4) - 106.0633
109. Arkansas (2-6) - 76.4524

 

[bamawriter]

The Bottom 10:

121. New Mexico St (2-6) - 52.9230
122. Rice (1-7) - 52.8468
123. Oregon St (1-6) - 51.3407
124. San Jose St (0-7) - 48.6836
125. Kent St (1-7) - 47.8088
126. Western Kentucky (1-6) - 46.8369
127. Rutgers (1-7) - 46.1686
128. Bowling Green (1-7) - 44.5890
129. Texas St (1-6) - 36.2333
130. UTEP (0-7) - 30.1383

Current Champions of Life (Lineal Title): Florida

 

[diehardvolsfan]

Back in 2011, during the controversy surrounding the Bama-LSU rematch, I started putting together my own version of a BCS computer ranking system. I was going to use it in a future column to detail how stupid the very concept of the computers is when it comes to determining a champion. But, before I had the chance to write that column, the playoff was announced, and it seemed sort of pointless.

Anyway, I was clearing of a hard drive and found my system. Because I'm bored, I decided to update it for the past several seasons just to see what it would spit out for the four team playoff. Thought some on here might find it interesting. Certainly could spur some debate.

Here's the idea:

Bias is completely eliminated. Team names, history, and conference are all ignored. Winning % and strength of schedule are the most important factors. While the BCS eliminated margin of victory, I think that's ridiculous, so it's back in on mine. In order to adjust for home field advantage, I took the standard Vegas rule and subtracted 3 points for a game at home, and added 3 points for a road game, creating an adjusted point differential. I also included average yardage differential to help account for the way a game actually played out on the field. FCS opponents are given a standard .25 winning % and only their games against FBS teams count toward their point differential.

Here's the formula:

Winning % x 100 (too make it a whole number)
+
Opponents' Winning % x 100
+
Average Adjusted Point Differential
+
Opponents' Average Point Differential
+
Average Yardage Differential / 100
=
SCORE


As an example, 2015 Tennessee had the following score (bowl game not included):

(.6667 x 100) + (.5385 x 100) + 12.4167 + .5753 + (52.0833 / 100) = 134.0328

Interestingly, my system from last year produced the same 4 playoff teams, and even the same semifinal matchups, but with different seeding:

1. Alabama - 176.4984
2. Clemson - 175.6221
3. Oklahoma - 174.9711
4. Mich St. - 164.4958

Michigan State got in over Ohio State by .0007.

I went back to 2008 if anyone is interested in more.

Send that formula into the committee. Maybe they will finally have fair matchups in the semifinals for once and a decent worth watching NC game.....

 

[bamawriter]

Send that formula into the committee. Maybe they will finally have fair matchups in the semifinals for once and a decent worth watching NC game.....

Eh, the committee has mostly gotten it right. It's not their fault the semis have sucked. As for the NC games, the last 3 have been instant classics. If you didn't find them worth watching, you don't like college football.

 

[bamawriter]

WEEK 9 Rankings (with AP/Coaches)

1. Clemson (8-0) - 192.8538 (2/2)
2. Alabama (8-0) - 183.1801 (1/1)
3. LSU (7-1) - 174.7681 (4/4)
4. Michigan (7-1) - 171.0891 (5/5t)
5. Notre Dame (8-0) - 166.7222 (3/3)
6. Georgia (7-1) - 164.4741 (6/5t)
7. Oklahoma (7-1) - 159.9349 (7/7)
8. Penn St (6-2) - 151.8334 (14/13)
9. UCF (7-0) - 150.1824 (9/9)
10. Army (6-2) - 148.8182 (UR/UR)
11. NC State (5-2) - 148.4898 (UR/UR)
12. Ohio St (7-1) - 148.2847 (8/8)
13. Kentucky (7-1) - 148.0346 (11/12)
14. Fresno St (7-1) - 146.6167 (20/23)
15. Florida (6-2) - 146.4637 (13/14)
16. West Virginia (6-1) - 145.5242 (12/10)
17. Iowa (6-2) - 144.7883 (19/18)
18. Utah (6-2) - 142.5653 (16/16)
19. Washington St (7-1) - 142.1265 (10/11)
20. Utah St (7-1) - 140.8699 (18/20)
21. Georgia Southern (7-1) - 140.2169 (UR/UR)
22. UAB (7-1) - 140.0705 (UR/UR)
23. Appalachian St (5-2) - 139.1657 (UR/UR)
24. Texas A&M (5-3) - 138.2703 (25/UR)
25. Iowa St (4-3) - 138.1995 (UR/UR)

 

[bamawriter]

The Rest of the SEC:

28. Mississippi St (5-3) - 136.7756 (21/21)
41. South Carolina (4-3) - 127.0958
42. Missouri (4-4) - 125.1618
46. Auburn (5-3) - 123.2491
49. Ole Miss (5-3) - 120.0344
58. Vanderbilt (4-5) - 113.8965
83. Tennessee (3-5) - 99.0100
111. Arkansas (2-7) - 69.3283

 

[bamawriter]

The Bottom 10:

121. Rice (1-8) - 55.4386
122. San Jose St (1-7) - 54.2567
123. UNLV (2-6) - 52.3413
124. New Mexico St (2-7) - 51.2710
125. Rutgers (1-7) - 49.0647
126. Kent St (1-7) - 48.2052)
127. Western Kentucky (1-7) - 46.1189
128. Bowling Green (1-7) - 45.9020
129. Texas St (2-6) - 45.8352
130. UTEP (0-8) - 36.2422

Current Champions of Life (Lineal Title) - Florida (game against UGA was non-title).

 

[hUTch2002]

WEEK 9 Rankings (with AP/Coaches)

1. Clemson (8-0) - 192.8538 (2/2)
2. Alabama (8-0) - 183.1801 (1/1)
3. LSU (7-1) - 174.7681 (4/4)
4. Michigan (7-1) - 171.0891 (5/5t)
5. Notre Dame (8-0) - 166.7222 (3/3)
6. Georgia (7-1) - 164.4741 (6/5t)
7. Oklahoma (7-1) - 159.9349 (7/7)
8. Penn St (6-2) - 151.8334 (14/13)
9. UCF (7-0) - 150.1824 (9/9)
10. Army (6-2) - 148.8182 (UR/UR)
11. NC State (5-2) - 148.4898 (UR/UR)
12. Ohio St (7-1) - 148.2847 (8/8)
13. Kentucky (7-1) - 148.0346 (11/12)
14. Fresno St (7-1) - 146.6167 (20/23)
15. Florida (6-2) - 146.4637 (13/14)
16. West Virginia (6-1) - 145.5242 (12/10)
17. Iowa (6-2) - 144.7883 (19/18)
18. Utah (6-2) - 142.5653 (16/16)
19. Washington St (7-1) - 142.1265 (10/11)
20. Utah St (7-1) - 140.8699 (18/20)
21. Georgia Southern (7-1) - 140.2169 (UR/UR)
22. UAB (7-1) - 140.0705 (UR/UR)
23. Appalachian St (5-2) - 139.1657 (UR/UR)
24. Texas A&M (5-3) - 138.2703 (25/UR)
25. Iowa St (4-3) - 138.1995 (UR/UR)

Seems like your SOS measure is weighted a little too heavily to get Army up so high but what has NC State up so high? My Army comment is based on your prior reason given for their ranking. If something else has them up so high please share. Interesting stuff though.

 

[Bellevue vol]

The Bottom 10:

121. Rice (1-8) - 55.4386
122. San Jose St (1-7) - 54.2567
123. UNLV (2-6) - 52.3413
124. New Mexico St (2-7) - 51.2710
125. Rutgers (1-7) - 49.0647
126. Kent St (1-7) - 48.2052)
127. Western Kentucky (1-7) - 46.1189
128. Bowling Green (1-7) - 45.9020
129. Texas St (2-6) - 45.8352
130. UTEP (0-8) - 36.2422

Current Champions of Life (Lineal Title) - Florida (game against UGA was non-title).

Connecticut is 1-7 giving up 625 yards and 47.8 points per game, both worst in the FBS. How is it possible that they are not in the bottom 10.