I Created a CFB Ranking System

#551
#551
bamawriter said:
The Bottom 10:

121. Kansas (1-8) - 57.0436
122. Arizona (1-8) - 56.6894
123. New Mexico St (1-8) - 49.7977
124. Arkansas St (1-8) - 49.6854
125. Akron (2-7) - 48.0330
126. Vanderbilt (2-7) - 46.8447
127. Southern Miss (1-8) - 43.5410
128. FIU (1-8) - 41.1585
129. UMass (1-8) - 40.6194
130. UConn (1-8) - 30.0806

Current Champions of Life (Lineal Title): Arkansas St
Click to expand...
The question must be asked... Is Tennessee the best 5-4 team in the country according to your model?
 
#553
#553
WEEK 11 RANKINGS (with CFP/AP/Coaches):

1. Georgia (10-0) - 190.5720 (1/1/1)
2. Ohio St (9-1) - 164.9720 (4/5/4)
3. Michigan (9-1) - 162.7090 (6/8/7)
4. Notre Dame (9-1) - 160.3030 (8/6/6)
5. Alabama (9-1) - 158.2240 (2/2/2)
6. Oklahoma St (9-1) - 155.1180 (9/9/9)
7. Wake Forest (9-1) - 153.2500 (10/13/12)
8. Cincinnati (10-0) - 153.1162 (5/3/3)
9. Wisconsin (7-3) - 150.0720 (15/19/20)
10. UTSA (10-0) - 149.9550 (22/15/18)
11. Ole Miss (8-2) - 147.7000 (12/10/10)
12. Michigan St (9-1) - 147.4760 (7/7/8)
13. Appalachian St (8-2) - 146.7210 (UR/UR/UR)
14. Baylor (8-2) - 145.5610 (11/11/13)
15. Oregon (9-1) - 144.7208 (3/4/5)
16. Boise St (6-4) - 142.6782 (UR/UR/UR)
17. San Diego St (9-1) - 141.4976 (19/23/23)
18. BYU (8-2) - 140.5550 (14/14/15)
19. Texas A&M (7-3) - 140.2810 (16/16/16)
20. ULL (9-1) - 139.8810 (UR/22/21)
21. Oklahoma (9-1) - 139.0350 (13/12/11)
22. Houston (9-1) - 137.7052 (24/17/17)
23. Iowa (8-2) - 137.1400 (17/18/14)
24. Utah (7-3) - 135.2088 (23/24/25)
25. Clemson (7-3) - 133.1080 (UR/UR/UR)
 
#554
#554
NY6 Bowl Matchups as of today (and the G5 can't get into the CFP):

Orange (CFP) - #1 Georgia vs. #4 Notre Dame
Cotton (CFP ) - #2 Ohio St vs. #3 Michigan

Fiesta (At-Large vs. At-Large) - #8 Cincinnati vs. #9 Wisconsin
Peach (At-Large vs. At-Large) - #7 Wake Forest vs. #11 Ole Miss*
Sugar (SEC vs. Big XII) - #5 Alabama vs. #6 Oklahoma St
Rose (Big Ten vs. Pac-12) - #12 Michigan St vs. #15 Oregon

*I'm guessing that the committee wouldn't award NY6 spots to two G5 teams, so UTSA is out.
 
#555
#555
The Rest of the SEC:

27. Arkansas (7-3) - 131.8250 (21/21/22)
40. Auburn (6-4) - 126.0240
41. Mississippi St (6-4) - 125.8760 (25/UR/UR)
42. Kentucky (7-3) - 125.1130
45. Tennessee (5-5) - 121.0720*
60. Florida (5-5) - 110.8330
64. LSU (4-6) - 107.8600
72. South Carolina (5-5) - 103.1380
80. Missouri (5-5) - 100.1940
126. Vanderbilt (2-8) - 47.6110

* Yes, @Adam2014 , Tennessee is the highest ranked 5-5 team.
 
#556
#556
The Bottom 10:

121. Temple (3-7) - 61.7270
122. Arizona (1-9) - 57.6214
123. Arkansas St (2-8) - 57.2140
124. Southern Miss (1-9) - 49.8870
125. Akron (2-8) - 47.6310
126. Vanderbilt (2-8) - 47.6110
127. New Mexico St (1-9) - 47.3664
128. FIU (1-9) - 38.4537
129. UMass (1-9) - 36.2040
130. UConn (1-9) - 31.4682

Current Champions of Life (Lineal Title): Arkansas St
 
#557
#557
WEEK 13 RANKINGS (with CFP/AP/Coaches):

1. Georgia (12-0) - 185.7092 (1/1/1)
2. Alabama (11-1) - 166.7397 (3/4/2)
3. Ohio St (10-2) - 164.7339 (7/7/7)
4. Michigan (11-1) - 164.2558 (2/2/3)
5. Cincinnati (12-0) - 163.7239 (4/3/4)
6. Oklahoma St (11-1) - 161.2486 (5/5/5)
7. Notre Dame (11-1) - 160.6251 (6/6/6)
8. Baylor (10-2) - 149.3872 (9/9/9)
9. Appalachian St (10-2) - 148.6450 (UR/UR/UR)
10. Wake Forest (10-2) - 148.4840 (16/18/18)
11. Ole Miss (10-2) - 146.4964 (8/8/8)
12. UTSA (11-1) - 144.2036 (UR/UR/UR)
13. San Diego St (11-1) - 143.7230 (19/19/19)
14. Utah (9-3) - 142.6109 (17/14/17)
15. Wisconsin (8-4) - 142.5690 (UR/UR/UR)
16. ULL (11-1) - 141.8994 (24/20/21)
17. Michigan St (10-2) - 141.8642 (11/11/13)
18. Clemson (9-3) - 141.5650 (20/22/24)
19. Oregon (10-2) - 140.3903 (10/10/10)
20. BYU (10-2) - 139.3765 (12/12/14)
21. Boise St (7-5) - 139.2156 (UR/UR/UR)
22. Oklahoma (10-2) - 138.4300 (14/13/11)
23. Iowa (10-2) - 138.1875 (13/15/12)
24. Houston (11-1) - 138.0212 (21/16/16)
25. NC State (9-3) - 136.0606 (18/21/20)
 
#558
#558
NY6 Bowl Matchups as of today (and the G5 can't get into the CFP):

Orange (CFP) - #1 Georgia vs. #4 Michigan
Cotton (CFP ) - #2 Alabama vs. #3 Ohio St

Fiesta (At-Large vs. At-Large) - #5 Cincinnati vs. #8 Baylor
Peach (At-Large vs. At-Large) - #7 Notre Dame vs. #10 Wake Forest*
Sugar (SEC vs. Big XII) - #11 Ole Miss vs. #6 Oklahoma St
Rose (Big Ten vs. Pac-12) - #15 Wisconsin St vs. #14 Utah

*I'm guessing that the committee wouldn't award NY6 spots to two G5 teams, so App St is out.
 
#559
#559
bamawriter said:
WEEK 13 RANKINGS (with CFP/AP/Coaches):

1. Georgia (12-0) - 185.7092 (1/1/1)
2. Alabama (11-1) - 166.7397 (3/4/2)
3. Ohio St (10-2) - 164.7339 (7/7/7)
4. Michigan (11-1) - 164.2558 (2/2/3)
5. Cincinnati (12-0) - 163.7239 (4/3/4)
6. Oklahoma St (11-1) - 161.2486 (5/5/5)
7. Notre Dame (11-1) - 160.6251 (6/6/6)
8. Baylor (10-2) - 149.3872 (9/9/9)
9. Appalachian St (10-2) - 148.6450 (UR/UR/UR)
10. Wake Forest (10-2) - 148.4840 (16/18/18)
11. Ole Miss (10-2) - 146.4964 (8/8/8)
12. UTSA (11-1) - 144.2036 (UR/UR/UR)
13. San Diego St (11-1) - 143.7230 (19/19/19)
14. Utah (9-3) - 142.6109 (17/14/17)
15. Wisconsin (8-4) - 142.5690 (UR/UR/UR)
16. ULL (11-1) - 141.8994 (24/20/21)
17. Michigan St (10-2) - 141.8642 (11/11/13)
18. Clemson (9-3) - 141.5650 (20/22/24)
19. Oregon (10-2) - 140.3903 (10/10/10)
20. BYU (10-2) - 139.3765 (12/12/14)
21. Boise St (7-5) - 139.2156 (UR/UR/UR)
22. Oklahoma (10-2) - 138.4300 (14/13/11)
23. Iowa (10-2) - 138.1875 (13/15/12)
24. Houston (11-1) - 138.0212 (21/16/16)
25. NC State (9-3) - 136.0606 (18/21/20)
Click to expand...
Have you tracked your model in head to head games? Your model has had UK ahead of UT by just a little bit and UT actually won that game by just a little bit so, seems your model predicted a close game and got one. Well done! But do you track head to head regularly? Just interesting to see, you can take out the G5 teams that rank well, but we all know it’s fools gold
 
#560
#560
The Rest of the SEC:

29. Kentucky (9-3) - 133.0211 (23/25/22)
30. Arkansas (8-4) - 132.4217 (22/23/25)
32. Texas A&M (8-4) - 131.1122 (25/24/23)
36. Tennessee (7-5) - 127.8372
43. Mississippi St (7-5) - 122.1997
47. Auburn (6-6) - 119.1025
50. LSU (6-6) - 117.2675
64. Florida (6-6) - 109.2883
70. Missouri (6-6) - 103.5564
71. South Carolina (6-6) - 103.5475
125. Vanderbilt (2-10) - 49.4069
 
#561
#561
Otis1105 said:
Have you tracked your model in head to head games? Your model has had UK ahead of UT by just a little bit and UT actually won that game by just a little bit so, seems your model predicted a close game and got one. Well done! But do you track head to head regularly? Just interesting to see, you can take out the G5 teams that rank well, but we all know it’s fools gold
Click to expand...

No. Head-to-head is irrelevant to this system. It doesn't consider names. I could figure out how good it has been at predicting, but it would take some time. Though I will say that my math has been disrespecting Oklahoma all year, and in the end it turned out to be correct.
 
#562
#562
The Bottom 10:

121. Arizona (1-11) - 55.6943
122. Arkansas St (2-10) - 52.4872
123. New Mexico St (2-10) - 51.4126
124. Duke (3-9) - 50.5792
125. Vanderbilt (2-10) - 49.4069
126. Temple (3-9) - 49.2131
127. Akron (2-10) - 40.9369
128. UConn (1-11) - 38.5487
129. UMass (1-11) - 32.6729
130. FIU (1-11) - 31.7483

Current Champions of Life (Lineal Title): Georgia St
 
#563
#563
bamawriter said:
No. Head-to-head is irrelevant to this system. It doesn't consider names. I could figure out how good it has been at predicting, but it would take some time. Though I will say that my math has been disrespecting Oklahoma all year, and in the end it turned out to be correct.
Click to expand...
Yeah, you may have a blend of power rating vs ranking system. Maybe if some percentages were weighed heavier you could have a gambling model. It’s interesting and I check this thread every time I see it updated.
 
#564
#564
CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK RANKINGS (with CFP/AP/Coaches):

1. Georgia (12-1) - 178.8125 (3/3/3)
2. Alabama (12-1) - 172.3415 (1/1/1)
3. Michigan (12-1) - 169.0216 (2/2/2)
4. Cincinnati (13-0) - 167.5755 (4/4/4)
5. Ohio St (10-2) - 164.1436 (6/7/7)
6. Notre Dame (11-1) - 160.2709 (5/5/5)
7. Oklahoma St (11-2) - 156.0756 (9/9/9)
8. Baylor (11-2) - 152.7810 (7/6/6)
9. Ole Miss (10-2) - 146.5178 (8/8/8)
10. UTSA (12-1) - 146.5165 (UR/24/25)
11. Utah (10-3) - 146.1695 (11/10/11)
12. ULL (12-1) - 145.5884 (23/16/17)
13. Appalachian St (10-3) - 144.7820 (UR/UR/UR)
14. Wake Forest (10-3) - 142.8568 (17/20/19)
15. Pitt (11-2) - 141.9143 (12/13/12)
16. Wisconsin (8-4) - 141.9120 (UR/UR/UR)
17. Michigan St (10-2) - 141.4785 (10/11/10)
18. Clemson (9-3) - 139.9902 (19/19/22)
19. BYU (10-2) - 139.7556 (13/12/14)
20. Boise St (7-5) - 137.9720 (UR/UR/UR)
21. Oklahoma (10-2) - 137.7671 (16/14/13)
22. San Diego St (11-2) - 136.6225 (24/UR/UR)
23. Houston (11-2) - 135.8875 (20/21/21)
24. NC State (9-3) - 135.2838 (18/18/18)
25. Oregon (10-3) - 135.0673 (14/15/15)

It's possible that the result of the Army-Navy game could have an impact on Cincinnati's score. So this may not be the final ranking.
 
#565
#565
NY6 Bowl Matchups as of today (and because the committee proved me wrong, the G5 can get into the CFP):

Orange (CFP) - #1 Georgia vs. #4 Cincinnati
Cotton (CFP ) - #2 Alabama vs. #3 Michigan

Fiesta (At-Large vs. At-Large) - #7 Oklahoma St vs. #14 Wake Forest*
Peach (At-Large vs. At-Large) - #15 Pitt vs #6 Notre Dame
Sugar (SEC vs. Big XII) - #9 Ole Miss vs. #8 Baylor
Rose (Big Ten vs. Pac-12) - #5 Ohio St vs. #11 Utah

*I'm guessing that the committee wouldn't award NY6 spots to more than one G5 team, so UTSA, ULL, and App St are out.
 
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#566
#566
The Rest of the SEC:

28. Kentucky (9-3) - 132.0580 (22/25/20)
30. Arkansas (8-4) - 131.4799 (21/22/24)
32. Texas A&M (8-4) - 130.6485 (25/23/23)
36. Tennessee (7-5) - 127.0605
43. Mississippi St (7-5) - 122.2211
48. Auburn (6-6) - 118.1607
50. LSU (6-6) - 117.2889
64. Florida (6-6) - 108.3466
72. Missouri (6-6) - 102.5932
73. South Carolina (6-6) - 102.5844
125. Vanderbilt (2-10) - 48.4438
 
#567
#567
The Bottom 10:

121. Arizona (1-11) - 54.5009
122. Arkansas St (2-10) - 51.8184
123. New Mexico St (2-10) - 50.9057
124. Duke (3-9) - 49.9675
125. Vanderbilt (2-10) - 48.4438
126. Temple (3-9) - 48.3515
127. Akron (2-10) - 40.4519
128. UConn (1-11) - 37.7629
129. UMass (1-11) - 32.8380
130. FIU (1-11) - 31.1848

Current Champions of Life (Lineal Title): Georgia St
 
#571
#571
bamawriter said:
NY6 Bowl Matchups as of today (and because the committee proved me wrong, the G5 can get into the CFP):

Orange (CFP) - #1 Georgia vs. #4 Cincinnati
Cotton (CFP ) - #2 Alabama vs. #3 Michigan

Fiesta (At-Large vs. At-Large) - #7 Oklahoma St vs. #14 Wake Forest*
Peach (At-Large vs. At-Large) - #15 Pitt vs #6 Notre Dame
Sugar (SEC vs. Big XII) - #9 Ole Miss vs. #8 Baylor
Rose (Big Ten vs. Pac-12) - #5 Ohio St vs. #11 Utah

*I'm guessing that the committee wouldn't award NY6 spots to more than one G5 team, so UTSA, ULL, and App St are out.
Click to expand...
You were right, the committee got it wrong with Cincy.
IMHO the committee was just pushing Mickey Mouse's play-off expansion agenda.
A G5 team will be hard pressed to EVER win a true championship play-off game.
 
#572
#572
tnutater said:
You were right, the committee got it wrong with Cincy.
IMHO the committee was just pushing Mickey Mouse's play-off expansion agenda.
A G5 team will be hard pressed to EVER win a true championship play-off game.
Click to expand...

I think Bama's going to beat Cincy comfortably. But I honestly don't have a problem with Cincy getting in. There weren't 4 P5 teams that deserved it.
 
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#573
#573
bamawriter said:
I think Bama's going to beat Cincy comfortably. But I honestly don't have a problem with Cincy getting in. There weren't 4 P5 teams that deserved it.
Click to expand...
IMO watching Cinci get steamrolled by Bama is the same as watching ND or likely even tOSU, this year, get steamrolled.

It's GA and Bama at the top and who they beat to get to the championship game wouldn't matter. It's GA and Bama..... and the rest of CFB this year.
 
#574
#574
SayUWantAreVOLution said:
IMO watching Cinci get steamrolled by Bama is the same as watching ND or likely even tOSU, this year, get steamrolled.

It's GA and Bama at the top and who they beat to get to the championship game wouldn't matter. It's GA and Bama..... and the rest of CFB this year.
Click to expand...
I agree that Cinci will get steamrolled, but if that's the case why not let the record speak for itself?

It's a question I have long asked about CFP expansion, which team in would have made a difference?

The average margin of victory is almost 20 points in the CFP. I dont see how that's an argument for expansion, at least if you want to see quality games. The NY6 (first out) margin is 24 points. So it's not like you can argue things would get better with more.

A 12-team College Football Playoff? Why we really love (and hate) the idea

TV ratings for New Year’s 6 Bowls down 13 percent overall
 
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#575
#575
WEEK 4 2022 RANKINGS (with AP/Coaches):

1. Alabama (4-0) - 182.8500 (2/2)
2. Ohio St (4-0) - 182.3200 (3/3)
3. USC (4-0) - 175.1792 (6/6)
4. Georgia (4-0) - 172.8075 (1/1)
5. Penn St (4-0) - 171.4750 (11/12)
6. James Madison (3-0) - 169.8567 (UR/UR)
7. Kansas (4-0) - 167.9425 (UR/UR)
8. Florida St (4-0) - 166.2450 (23/22)
9. Tennessee (4-0) - 165.7725 (8/9)
10. LSU (3-1) - 159.6650 (UR/UR)
11. Oregon (3-1) - 159.0075 (13/15)
12. Syracuse (4-0) - 155.6350 (UR/25)
13. NC State (4-0) - 154.2075 (10/10)
14. Ole Miss (4-0) - 152.9425 (14/11)
15. Washington (4-0) - 152.9333 (15/18)
16. Clemson (4-0) - 151.0025 (5/5)
17. Indiana (3-1) - 150.7825 (UR/UR)
18. Michigan (4-0) - 150.6300 (4/4)
19. Wake Forest (3-1) - 150.4350 (22/21)
20. Mississippi St (3-1) - 150.3150 (UR/UR)
21. Kansas St (3-1) - 149.2375 (25/UR)
22. Baylor (3-1) - 147.6950 (16/14)
23. Oklahoma St (3-0) - 146.1800 (9/7)
24. BYU (3-1) - 146.1750 (19/20)
25. Kentucky (4-0) - 145.3075 (7/8)

Let me know if you're looking for anyone or if you want to know how the math shakes out.
 
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