I Created a CFB Ranking System

[bamawriter]

This may be a weird question but: Florida (who beat us) beat South Carolina (who lost to us), this weekend. Would it have been better for our ranking if a team we beat wins, if it means a team we lost to also lost, ie South Carolina beating Florida by the same amount Florida beat them? or is it weighted the same, and would it just be a wash?

It's mostly a wash. It can be beneficial or detrimental if the score of the game causes one or both teams' score differential to improve or get worse.

 

[bamawriter]

WEEK 7 2023 RANKINGS (with AP/Coaches):

1. Oklahoma (6-0) - 192.2813 (6/7)
2. Washington (6-0) - 181.4616 (5/5)
3. Michigan (7-0) - 181.3324 (2/2)
4. Texas (5-1)- 178.7944 (8/t8)
5. Florida St (6-0) - 177.4062 (4/4)
6. Ohio St (6-0) - 176.8109 (3/3)
7. Penn St (6-0) - 172.1673 (7/6)
8. North Carolina (6-0) - 167.7976 (10/10)
9. Notre Dame (6-2) - 165.8670 (15/18)
10. Oregon (5-1) - 160.1926 (9/11)
11. Alabama (6-1) - 158.1284 (11/t8)
12. James Madison (6-0) - 157.6283 (UR/UR)
13. Liberty (6-0) - 157.3152 (UR/UR)
14. Ole Miss (5-1) - 155.7283 (13/12)
15. Georgia (7-0) - 154.3291 (1/1)
16. Oregon St (6-1) - 150.7586 (12/13)
17. Air Force (6-0) - 149.6964 (22/22)
18. Duke (5-1) - 149.0358 (16/17)
19. LSU (5-2) - 147.6685 (19/19)
20. Utah (5-1) - 147.4870 (14/14)
21. Missouri (6-1) - 146.5104 (20/20)
22. Iowa (6-1) - 145.4907 (24/23)
23. Troy (5-2) - 144.6314 (UR/UR)
24. Louisville (6-1) - 142.8326 (21/21)
25. Clemson (4-2) - 142.2732 (UR/UR)

 

[bamawriter]

The Rest of the SEC:

27. Tennessee (5-1) - 140.9401 (17/15)
36. Texas A&M (4-3) - 129.2997
40. Florida (5-2) - 125.3522
44. Kentucky (5-2) - 122.7905
70. South Carolina (2-4) - 108.2272
75. Auburn (3-3) - 106.0355
85. Mississippi St (3-3) - 98.6843
98. Arkansas (2-5) - 90.5237
106. Vanderbilt (2-6) - 83.1954

 

[bamawriter]

The Bottom 10:

124. Arizona St (1-5) - 68.3617
125. UConn (1-5) - 68.2947
126. Southern Miss (1-5) - 67.6868
127. UMass (1-7) - 63.7517
128. Ball St (1-6) - 61.6266
129. New Mexico (2-4) - 60.6976
130. Temple (2-5) - 58.3874
131. Nevada (0-6) - 57.8688
132. Kent St (1-6) - 54.6961
133. Akron (1-6) - 38.6301

Current Champions of Life (Lineal Title): Ohio St

 

[woodpusher]

WEEK 7 2023 RANKINGS (with AP/Coaches):

1. Oklahoma (6-0) - 192.2813 (6/7)
2. Washington (6-0) - 181.4616 (5/5)
3. Michigan (7-0) - 181.3324 (2/2)
4. Texas (5-1)- 178.7944 (8/t8)
5. Florida St (6-0) - 177.4062 (4/4)
6. Ohio St (6-0) - 176.8109 (3/3)
7. Penn St (6-0) - 172.1673 (7/6)
8. North Carolina (6-0) - 167.7976 (10/10)
9. Notre Dame (6-2) - 165.8670 (15/18)
10. Oregon (5-1) - 160.1926 (9/11)
11. Alabama (6-1) - 158.1284 (11/t8)
12. James Madison (6-0) - 157.6283 (UR/UR)
13. Liberty (6-0) - 157.3152 (UR/UR)
14. Ole Miss (5-1) - 155.7283 (13/12)
15. Georgia (7-0) - 154.3291 (1/1)
16. Oregon St (6-1) - 150.7586 (12/13)
17. Air Force (6-0) - 149.6964 (22/22)
18. Duke (5-1) - 149.0358 (16/17)
19. LSU (5-2) - 147.6685 (19/19)
20. Utah (5-1) - 147.4870 (14/14)
21. Missouri (6-1) - 146.5104 (20/20)
22. Iowa (6-1) - 145.4907 (24/23)
23. Troy (5-2) - 144.6314 (UR/UR)
24. Louisville (6-1) - 142.8326 (21/21)
25. Clemson (4-2) - 142.2732 (UR/UR)

Sagarin used an Elo-like system (the exact details of which were his secret -- I don't know if he's still doing it or not) - I wrote an Elo-like system a long time ago. I think with the Elo methods, James Madison and Liberty would rank a lot lower. I see Georgia gets punished for its weak schedule.

Sagarin also lumped all the FCS schools into one artificial category. I think the overall probability of an FCS school beating an FBS school was a lot lower than 0.25.

 

[bamawriter]

Sagarin used an Elo-like system (the exact details of which were his secret -- I don't know if he's still doing it or not) - I wrote an Elo-like system a long time ago. I think with the Elo methods, James Madison and Liberty would rank a lot lower. I see Georgia gets punished for its weak schedule.

Sagarin also lumped all the FCS schools into one artificial category. I think the overall probability of an FCS school beating an FBS school was a lot lower than 0.25.

I picked the FCS number because the average FCS program that transitions to FBS goes 3-9 its first year. The point isn't to predict the FCS team's chance of winning, but rather to reflect the quality of the competition that the FBS team played. There may be better ways to do it, but at least the way I picked is even for all. The best way would be to actually use the legit records of all FCS teams, but that takes more time and energy than I'm willing to commit.

 

[HighRockvol]

WEEK 7 2023 RANKINGS (with AP/Coaches):

1. Oklahoma (6-0) - 192.2813 (6/7)
2. Washington (6-0) - 181.4616 (5/5)
3. Michigan (7-0) - 181.3324 (2/2)
4. Texas (5-1)- 178.7944 (8/t8)
5. Florida St (6-0) - 177.4062 (4/4)
6. Ohio St (6-0) - 176.8109 (3/3)
7. Penn St (6-0) - 172.1673 (7/6)
8. North Carolina (6-0) - 167.7976 (10/10)
9. Notre Dame (6-2) - 165.8670 (15/18)
10. Oregon (5-1) - 160.1926 (9/11)
11. Alabama (6-1) - 158.1284 (11/t8)
12. James Madison (6-0) - 157.6283 (UR/UR)
13. Liberty (6-0) - 157.3152 (UR/UR)
14. Ole Miss (5-1) - 155.7283 (13/12)
15. Georgia (7-0) - 154.3291 (1/1)
16. Oregon St (6-1) - 150.7586 (12/13)
17. Air Force (6-0) - 149.6964 (22/22)
18. Duke (5-1) - 149.0358 (16/17)
19. LSU (5-2) - 147.6685 (19/19)
20. Utah (5-1) - 147.4870 (14/14)
21. Missouri (6-1) - 146.5104 (20/20)
22. Iowa (6-1) - 145.4907 (24/23)
23. Troy (5-2) - 144.6314 (UR/UR)
24. Louisville (6-1) - 142.8326 (21/21)
25. Clemson (4-2) - 142.2732 (UR/UR)

Why is it so high on Oklahoma I get they beat Texas but haven’t played anyone else ranked have they?

 

[bamawriter]

Why is it so high on Oklahoma I get they beat Texas but haven’t played anyone else ranked have they?

They've only played one team that's below .500. Their SOS is pretty strong at this point. Plus, their revised scoring differential is over 30 points per game.

 

[woodpusher]

I picked the FCS number because the average FCS program that transitions to FBS goes 3-9 its first year. The point isn't to predict the FCS team's chance of winning, but rather to reflect the quality of the competition that the FBS team played. There may be better ways to do it, but at least the way I picked is even for all. The best way would be to actually use the legit records of all FCS teams, but that takes more time and energy than I'm willing to commit.

The trouble with that is that you'll get FCS teams ranked much higher than they should be. South Dakota State (6-0) could come out much higher ranked in your method than with an Elo system, having beaten Montana St. (5-1), North Dakota (4-2), and Illinois St (4-2).

I'll admit it gets a little fuzzy. Some years ago, some of the MAC schools were classified I-AA and others were I-A - as far as I could tell, it was because the attendance at some of the schools was too low.
I'm not sure how Sagarin would have handled that.

 

[bamawriter]

The trouble with that is that you'll get FCS teams ranked much higher than they should be. South Dakota State (6-0) could come out much higher ranked in your method than with an Elo system, having beaten Montana St. (5-1), North Dakota (4-2), and Illinois St (4-2).

I'll admit it gets a little fuzzy. Some years ago, some of the MAC schools were classified I-AA and others were I-A - as far as I could tell, it was because the attendance at some of the schools was too low.
I'm not sure how Sagarin would have handled that.

You're detailing another good reason why math systems are problematic.

 

[woodpusher]

You're detailing another good reason why math systems are problematic.

Elo can produce illogical results too if there are a very small number of games, say, between FCS and FBS.

 

[woodpusher]

FCS beating FBS is something like 2% (Fordham over Buffalo, and Sacramento State over Stanford this year)....maybe there are one or two others I missed.
I stopped counting after about week 3.

 

[bamawriter]

FCS beating FBS is something like 2% (Fordham over Buffalo, and Sacramento State over Stanford this year)....maybe there are one or two others I missed.
I stopped counting after about week 3.

Idaho absolutely destroyed Nevada.

 

[woodpusher]

Idaho absolutely destroyed Nevada.

Another one I missed was Southern Illinois beating Northern Illinois.
As far as I can tell, it's FCS 4, FBS 106 for the season.

 

[bamawriter]

WEEK 8 2023 RANKINGS (with AP/Coaches):

1. Oklahoma (7-0) - 184.2680 (6/6)
2. Michigan (8-0) - 183.4401 (2/2)
3. Florida St (7-0) - 180.9663 (4/4)
4. Ohio St (7-0) - 180.9110 (3/3)
5. Texas (6-1) - 177.4779 (7/7)
6. Washington (7-0) - 167.5308 (5/5)
7. Alabama (7-1) - 164.0199 (9/8)
8. James Madison (7-0) - 163.1869 (25/25)
9. Notre Dame (6-2) - 159.7785 (14/14)
10. Penn St (6-1) - 159.0099 (10/10)
11. Oregon (6-1) - 158.5216 (8/9)
12. Liberty (7-0) - 158.2429 (UR/UR)
13. Utah (6-1) - 157.1462 (13/13)
14. Ole Miss (6-1) - 155.4346 (12/11)
15. Georgia (7-0) - 152.9923 (1/1)
16. LSU (6-2) - 152.2184 (15/15)
17. Oregon St (6-1) - 151.3717 (11/12)
18. Air Force (7-0) - 150.0379 (19/19)
19. Missouri (7-1) - 148.7998 (16/16)
20. Kansas St (5-2) - 145.2841 (UR/UR)
21. North Carolina (6-1) - 144.6792 (17/17)
22. Troy (5-2) - 141.6314 (UR/UR)
23. Louisville (6-1) - 141.3394 (18/18)
24. Tulane (6-1) - 140.5277 (22/23)
25. Duke (5-2) - 139.9261 (20/21)

 

[bamawriter]

The Rest of the SEC:

29. Tennessee (5-2) - 136.3570 (21/20)
40. Texas A&M (4-3) - 126.9944
45. Kentucky (5-2) - 124.6400
47. Florida (5-2) - 124.4066
70. Auburn (3-4) - 105.0508
74. Mississippi St (4-3) - 104.0937
82. South Carolina (2-5) - 100.1933
99. Arkansas (2-6) - 87.4408
103. Vanderbilt (2-6) - 84.0413

 

[bamawriter]

The Bottom 10:

124. Nevada (1-6) - 67.7044
125. Sam Houston (0-7) - 65.2174
126. ECU (1-6) - 65.1512
127. UConn (1-6) - 63.5650
128. Hawaii (2-6) - 61.8645
129. Southern Miss (1-6) - 61.0065
130. UMass (1-7) - 59.2800
131. Temple (2-6) - 54.5453
132. Kent St (1-7) - 45.3929
133. Akron (1-7) - 36.5072

Current Champions of Life (Lineal Title): Ohio State

 

[bamawriter]

WEEK 9 2023 RANKINGS (with AP/Coaches/CFP):

1. Michigan (8-0) - 182.6231 (2/2/3)
2. Ohio St (8-0) - 178.7795 (3/3/1)
3. Florida St (8-0) - 178.4569 (4/4/4)
4. Texas (7-1) - 172.6988 (7/6/7)
5. Oklahoma (7-1) - 171.3825 (10/11/9)
6. Alabama (7-1) - 164.7119 (8/8/8)
7. Washington (8-0) - 162.7600 (5/5/5)
8. Oregon (7-1) - 161.8751 (6/7/6)
9. Notre Dame (7-2) - 161.0617 (12/12/15)
10. James Madison (8-0) - 159.5919 (23/24/UR)
11. Liberty (8-0) - 159.4794 (UR/UR/UR)
12. Penn St (7-1) - 157.5044 (9/9/11)
13. Georgia (8-0) - 156.4164 (1/1/2)
14. Ole Miss (7-1) - 155.3676 (11/10/10)
15. LSU (6-2) - 152.0800 (13/13/14)
16. Air Force (8-0) - 150.2539 (17/17/25)
17. Louisville (7-1) - 149.6176 (15/15/13)
18. Kansas St (6-2) - 148.7713 (25/UR/23)
19. Missouri (7-1) - 147.4633 (14/14/12)
20. Troy (6-2) - 146.1094 (UR/UR/UR)
21. Utah (6-2) - 143.8135 (18/18/18)
22. Tulane (7-1) - 141.6406 (21/21/24)
23. Tennessee (6-2) - 140.3163 (19/16/17)
24. Oregon St (6-2) - 139.5648 (16/19/16)
25. USC (6-2) - 138.2183 (24/22/20)

 

[bamawriter]

NY6 Bowl Matchups as of today:

Rose (CFP) - #1 Michigan vs. #4 Texas
Sugar (CFP) - #2 Ohio St vs. #3 Florida St

Cotton (At-Large vs. At-Large) - #8 Oregon vs. #12 Penn St
Orange (ACC vs. Big 10/SEC/ND) - #17 Louisville vs. #6 Alabama
Fiesta (At-Large vs. At-Large) - #5 Oklahoma vs. #7 Washington
Peach (At-Large vs. At-Large) - #9 Notre Dame vs. #11 Liberty*

*James Madison is ineligible for the postseason due to their FBS transition.

 

[bamawriter]

The Rest of the SEC:

41. Texas A&M (5-3) - 127.9219
51. Florida (5-3) - 116.6614
52. Kentucky (5-3) - 116.4339
59. Auburn (4-4) - 113.8163
83. Mississippi St (4-4) - 97.8203
89. South Carolina (2-6) - 91.6419
98. Arkansas (2-6) - 85.7913
114. Vanderbilt (2-7) - 77.6617

 

[bamawriter]

The Bottom 10:

124. Army (2-6) - 63.8869
125. ULM (2-6) - 63.0619
126. ECU (1-7) - 62.7675
127. UConn (1-7) - 57.8504
128. Southern Miss (1-7) - 56.8975
129. Sam Houston (0-8) - 56.6990
130. Temple (2-6) - 54.3131
131. Hawaii (2-7) - 53.8610
132. Kent St (1-7) - 42.4167
133. Akron (1-7) - 34.8019

Kent St takes on Akron tonight. That should be fun.

Current Champions of Life (Lineal Title): Ohio St

 

[ThemDawgsIsHell]

Your "Ranking System" is drunk, it might need a little tweaking... or scratch that, it needs a major overhaul.

James Madison and Liberty ranked higher than Georgia?

Forget the playoffs, Georgia doesn't even make a NY6 bowl?

 

[LouderVol]

Your "Ranking System" is drunk, it might need a little tweaking... or scratch that, it needs a major overhaul.

James Madison and Liberty ranked higher than Georgia?

Forget the playoffs, Georgia doesn't even make a NY6 bowl?

go back and read the OP. the whole point is to show how the computer only system is flawed.

 

[BarrythesnoUT]

Your "Ranking System" is drunk, it might need a little tweaking... or scratch that, it needs a major overhaul.

James Madison and Liberty ranked higher than Georgia?

Forget the playoffs, Georgia doesn't even make a NY6 bowl?

Reading is hard sometimes.

 

[bamawriter]

WEEK 10 RANKINGS (with AP/Coaches/CFP):

1. Ohio St (9-0) - 178.8930 (3/3/1)
2. Michigan (9-0) - 178.2263 (2/2/3)
3. Florida St (9-0) - 173.0604 (4/4/4)
4. Texas (8-1) - 172.4633 (7/7/7)
5. Alabama (8-1) - 167.0863 (8/8/8)
6. Washington (9-0) - 166.4130 (5/5/5)
7. Penn St (8-1) - 166.0511 (9/9/10)
8. Oregon (8-1) - 165.4614 (6/6/6)
9. Georgia (9-0) - 162.5625 (1/1/2)
10. Oklahoma (7-2) - 161.3472 (17/16/17)
11. James Madison (9-0) - 161.2469 (21/21/UR)
12. Liberty (9-0) - 159.7843 (25/UR/UR)
13. Ole Miss (8-1) - 157.9236 (10/10/9)
14. Louisville (8-1) - 154.2630 (11/11/11)
15. Notre Dame (7-3) - 150.1933 (22/22/20)
16. Troy (7-2) - 150.0688 (UR/UR/UR)
17. LSU (6-3) - 146.0512 (18/19/19)
18. Kansas St (6-3) - 144.8557 (UR/UR/25)
19. Missouri (7-2) - 142.9519 (16/15/14)
20. Tennessee (7-2) - 141.7528 (14/12/13)
21. Utah (7-2) - 141.7422 (13/14/18)
22. Kansas (7-2) - 139.2451 (19/18/16)
23. Oregon St (7-2) - 138.9783 (12/13/12)
24. Tulane (8-1) - 138.6515 (20/20/23)
25. Oklahoma St (7-2) - 138.1746 (15/17/15)