I Created a CFB Ranking System

[bamawriter]

Ah I see it. Thanks. Surely the BCS model wasn’t that simple, was it?

Yardage differential seems to be weighted much less than it should be relative to SOS. Have you considered adding a metric that quantifies how teams perform against the spread throughout the season as well? It would interesting to see how that changed things, if at all.

The spread is created and moves up and down based upon human behavior. My point in this was to completely take human eyeballs out of the equation, which ends up proving how important human eyeballs truly are.

 

[Charlie Kelly]

The spread is created and moves up and down based upon human behavior. My point in this was to completely take human eyeballs out of the equation, which ends up proving how important human eyeballs truly are.

Fair enough. I’m curious about methodology whenever someone tries to operationalize a quality into a quantity.

Just asking questions, no need to be testy.

 

[bamawriter]

Fair enough. I’m curious about methodology whenever someone tries to operationalize a quality into a quantity.

Just asking questions, no need to be testy.

Not trying to be testy at all. My apologies if I'm coming off that way. You're asking great questions. And I completely agree with you on trying to objectivize comparisons that inevitably require subjectivity.

 

[Charlie Kelly]

Not trying to be testy at all. My apologies if I'm coming off that way. You're asking great questions. And I completely agree with you on trying to objectivize comparisons that inevitably require subjectivity.

Apologies on this end as well. Tone is a bit difficult to glean when reading prose.

As someone in the (physical) sciences, I always try to remain cognizant of the differences between the models we create to characterize our experience and the reality they’re meant to describe. Ultimately, everything we do is subjective; I’m not sure very many people are aware of the contradiction implicit in the assertion: ‘objective point of view’.

Plus, I like comparing different systems to see how closely they resemble my own opinions.

 

[Nooga]

My human eyes tell me that Georgia is ranked too low by your model. What’s holding them down so low?

 

[bamawriter]

My human eyes tell me that Georgia is ranked too low by your model. What’s holding them down so low?

Their SOS is merely average, which is crazy given that they've played two 6-1 teams and a 5-2. But they also have pitiful Auburn and MSU, mediocre Kentucky, and an FCS opponent. And their games have been closer than one might expect, so their score differential is not gigantic.

 

[GroverCleveland]

It's like the key to playing Georgia is to not be a threat or Alabama. If not Alabama and perceived to be a threat, well, you get their DL sitting on your QB's head.

 

[LouderVol]

Bama, whats FSU sitting at? they have to be down near the bottom right? I keep waiting for them to break the bottom 10.

 

[bamawriter]

Bama, whats FSU sitting at? they have to be down near the bottom right? I keep waiting for them to break the bottom 10.

106. Right between Auburn and Mississippi St. Their SOS is going to make it unlikely that they'll ever drop into the Bottom 10 unless they get blown out every week.

 

[UTwild82]

Yeah, NC St and Oklahoma being very meh as well as Bama having 2 losses is hurting us. Makes sense.

Awesome to see Indiana ranked that high. They look pretty good so far.

 

[adam.vol]

I noticed you mentioned strength of schedule as part of the equation, but I only see team vs opponents record listed in the formula. How is strength of schedule determined?

Surely beating a Div II champion shouldn’t be held higher than someone who becomes bowl eligible in the SEC.

 

[bamawriter]

I noticed you mentioned strength of schedule as part of the equation, but I only see team vs opponents record listed in the formula. How is strength of schedule determined?

Surely beating a Div II champion shouldn’t be held higher than someone who becomes bowl eligible in the SEC.

Opponents' combined winning % + Opponents' average score differential = SOS.

FCS opponents are included as a default 25.00 winning percentage, and only their games against FBS opponents count toward their score differential. So, if an FCS opponent is basically going to be a millstone around the neck of an FBS team's SOS.

 

[adam.vol]

Opponents' combined winning % + Opponents' average score differential = SOS.

FCS opponents are included as a default 25.00 winning percentage, and only their games against FBS opponents count toward their score differential. So, if an FCS opponent is basically going to be a millstone around the neck of an FBS team's SOS.

I see.

So you went back to 2008. Does that mean you tested the math to make sure it gave a consistent result with the BCS each year? It would be really impressive if you could use historical week 8 results to predict who will finish in the top 12 at the end of the season.

 

[LouderVol]

I see.

So you went back to 2008. Does that mean you tested the math to make sure it gave a consistent result with the BCS each year? It would be really impressive if you could use historical week 8 results to predict who will finish in the top 12 at the end of the season.

he isn't doing this to actually make a valid poll. he is doing this to show how blindly using various stats is dumb (BCS).

in his system its not unusual to see teams ranked above teams they beat, and not just Bama losing to Vandy type upsets.

 

[adam.vol]

he isn't doing this to actually make a valid poll. he is doing this to show how blindly using various stats is dumb (BCS).

in his system its not unusual to see teams ranked above teams they beat, and not just Bama losing to Vandy type upsets.

I read that but I can’t wrap my head around the consistency.

 

[bamawriter]

With only the CUSA games being played the past couple of nights, Indiana would drop 2 places to 6th. Miami would move up to 4th and Alabama to 5th.

 

[bamawriter]

WEEK 9 2024 RANKINGS (with AP/Coaches):

1. Ohio St (6-1) - 177.8784 (4/4)
2. Oregon (8-0) - 174.4733 (1/1)
3. Alabama (6-2) - 171.8075 (14/14)
4. Texas (7-1) - 170.4116 (6/6)
5. Notre Dame (7-1) - 169.4300 (8/9)
6. Miami (8-0) - 166.8145 (5/5)
7. Penn St (7-0) - 163.8784 (3/3)
8. Boise St (6-1) - 163.6800 (15/19)
9. Indiana (8-0) - 163.4848 (13/13)
10. Iowa St (7-0) - 162.9564 (t11/10)
11. BYU (8-0) - 162.7575 (9/12)
12. Georgia (6-1) - 159.3910 (2/2)
13. Texas A&M (7-1) - 158.4863 (10/11)
14. Kansas St (7-1) - 157.2319 (17/15)
15. Tennessee (6-1) - 155.9494 (7/7)
16. Pitt (7-0) - 154.4167 (18/17)
17. SMU (7-1) - 151.9093 (20/20)
18. Washington St (7-1) - 151.4280 (22/22)
19. Army (7-0) - 148.0334 (21/21)
20. LSU (6-2) - 147.4281 (16/16)
21. Clemson (6-1) - 146.0391 (t11/8)
22. Ole Miss (6-2) - 142.4621 (19/18)
23. Louisville (5-3) - 142.0432 (UR/UR)
24. Colorado (6-2) - 140.8356 (23/UR)
25. Tulane (6-2) - 137.5473 (UR/UR)

 

[bamawriter]

The Rest of the SEC:

28. Missouri (6-2) - 134.7800 (25/23)
37. South Carolina (4-3) - 127.4857
43. Vanderbilt (5-3) - 123.8326
46. Florida (4-3) - 121.7224
48. Oklahoma (4-4) - 119.3042
51. Arkansas (5-3) - 117.4803
87. Kentucky (3-5) - 99.1137
97. Auburn (3-5) - 94.8678
114. Mississippi St (1-7) - 74.9883

 

[bamawriter]

The Bottom 10:

125. New Mexico (3-5) - 62.4905
126. Purdue (1-6) - 62.3421
127. Troy (1-7) - 62.1875
128. Utah St (2-6) - 56.0877
129. UTEP (1-7) - 54.2947
130. Kennesaw St (1-6) - 49.7111
131. Wyoming (1-7) - 49.6670
132. Southern Miss (1-7) - 49.0565
133. Air Force (1-6) - 45.6190
134. Kent St (0-8) - 39.4075

Current Champions of Life (Lineal Title): Texas A&M

 

[bamawriter]

WEEK 10 2024 RANKINGS (with AP/Coaches):

1. Ohio St (7-1) - 181.2055 (3/3)
2. Oregon (9-0) - 174.0964 (1/1)
3. Alabama (6-2) - 173.9082 (11/11)
4. Texas (7-1) - 173.6924 (5/5)
5. Miami (9-0) - 170.1230(4/4)
6. Indiana (9-0) - 167.7896 (8/10)
7. Notre Dame (7-1) - 165.9340 (10/8)
8. Boise St (7-1) - 165.4113 (12/14)
9. BYU (9-0) - 163.1638 (9/9)
10. Georgia (7-1) - 159.1160 (2/2)
11. SMU (8-1) - 156.5766 (13/15)
12. Iowa St (7-1) - 154.5079 (17/18)
13. Penn St (7-1) -154.0370 (6/7)
14. Tennessee (7-1) - 153.5541 (7/6)
15. Ole Miss (7-2) - 151.9513 (16/12)
16. Washington St (7-1) - 151.9030 (20/20)
17. Louisville (6-3) - 149.5758 (25/UR)
18. Pitt (7-1) - 147.4171 (23/23)
19. Texas A&M (7-2) - 145.5570 (15/16)
20. Tulane (7-2) - 145.4745 (UR/UR)
21. Army (8-0) - 145.3838 (18/19)
22. LSU (6-2) - 145.1573 (14/13)
23. Kansas St (7-2) - 142.6265 (22/21)
24. Colorado (6-2) - 140.1846 (21/24)
25. South Carolina (5-3) - 137.8271 (UR/UR)

 

[bamawriter]

I'm going to try to do this bit early since the 12 team playoff is new, and I'll probably botch this a few times before I get it right.

Since the top 4 conference champs get a bye, I'm going to go with my rankings, but I'm going to go with the team currently in the driver's seat to win the conference. I'm only going to go with head-to-head as a tiebreaker because I don't have the wherewithal to figure out the deeper possibilities. If head-to-head isn't available, then I'm just going to fall back on my ranking.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF AS OF TODAY:

1st Round:

Columbus, OH: 5 seed - #1 Ohio St vs 12 seed - #12 Iowa St
Tuscaloosa, AL: 6 seed - #3 Alabama vs 11 seed - #11 SMU
Austin, TX: 7 seed - #4 Texas vs. 10 seed - #10 Georgia (SEC Champ)
Bloomington, IN: 8 seed - #6 Indiana vs 9 seed - #7 Notre Dame

Quarterfinals:

Rose Bowl: 1 seed - #2 Oregon (Big 10 Champ)
Peach Bowl: 2 seed - #5 Miami (ACC Champ)
Fiesta Bowl: 3 seed - #8 Boise St (MWC Champ)
Sugar Bowl: 4 seed - #9 BYU (Big XII Champ)

 

[bamawriter]

The Rest of the SEC:

32. Missouri (6-2) - 133.3668 (UR/22)
37. Vanderbilt (6-3) - 124.9954 (24/25)
42. Oklahoma (5-4) - 122.1565
50. Florida (4-4) - 118.0086
60. Arkansas (5-4) - 112.3495
85. Kentucky (3-6) - 99.7049
102. Auburn (3-6) - 90.3844
110. Mississippi St (2-7) - 78.7295

 

[bamawriter]

The Bottom 10:

125. NMSU (2-6) - 57.6305
126. Utah St (2-6) - 56.5562
127. New Mexico (3-6) - 56.0043
128. UMass (2-7) - 54.9516
129. Purdue (1-7) - 54.8469
130. Air Force (1-7) - 54.4749
131. Kennesaw St (1-7) - 53.6253
132. Southern Miss (1-7) - 51.4057
133. UTEP (1-8) - 49.2509
134. Kent St (0-8) - 34.1870

Current Champions of Life (Lineal Title): South Carolina

 

[VolPack22]

I'm going to try to do this bit early since the 12 team playoff is new, and I'll probably botch this a few times before I get it right.

Since the top 4 conference champs get a bye, I'm going to go with my rankings, but I'm going to go with the team currently in the driver's seat to win the conference. I'm only going to go with head-to-head as a tiebreaker because I don't have the wherewithal to figure out the deeper possibilities. If head-to-head isn't available, then I'm just going to fall back on my ranking.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF AS OF TODAY:

1st Round:

Columbus, OH: 5 seed - #1 Ohio St vs 12 seed - #12 Iowa St
Tuscaloosa, AL: 6 seed - #3 Alabama vs 11 seed - #11 SMU
Austin, TX: 7 seed - #4 Texas vs. 10 seed - #10 Georgia (SEC Champ)
Bloomington, IN: 8 seed - #6 Indiana vs 9 seed - #7 Notre Dame

Quarterfinals:

Rose Bowl: 1 seed - #2 Oregon (Big 10 Champ)
Peach Bowl: 2 seed - #5 Miami (ACC Champ)
Fiesta Bowl: 3 seed - #8 Boise St (MWC Champ)
Sugar Bowl: 4 seed - #9 BYU (Big XII Champ)

There is not a logical world where the SEC Champ is not going to get a bye lol

 

[bamawriter]

There is not a logical world where the SEC Champ is not going to get a bye lol

No disagreement here. But right now this math has UGA at #10, and they have the most direct path to Atlanta. Tennessee and A&M have similar paths, but they're ranked below UGA.