I Created a CFB Ranking System

[VolPack22]

No disagreement here. But right now this math has UGA at #10, and they have the most direct path to Atlanta. Tennessee and A&M have similar paths, but they're ranked below UGA.

Texas has a more direct path to Atlanta and they are ranked higher in your system, even with the head to head loss to Georgia. And Georgia still has 2 matchups vs top 15 teams while Texas only has the 19th team according to your rankings. So that doesn’t make any sense.

 

[bamawriter]

Texas has a more direct path to Atlanta and they are ranked higher in your system, even with the head to head loss to Georgia. And Georgia still has 2 matchups vs top 15 teams while Texas only has the 19th team according to your rankings. So that doesn’t make any sense.

But if the season ended today, UGA would be in over Texas. That may not last, but it is what it is at the moment.

 

[VolPack22]

But if the season ended today, UGA would be in over Texas. That may not last, but it is what it is at the moment.

But by that logic, A&M would be in the SEC Championship game also with Georgia and they aren’t going to keep the SEC runner up out. Having Alabama in over A&M at this point whenever Alabama has 2 conference losses makes zero sense. It’s flawed.

 

[bamawriter]

But by that logic, A&M would be in the SEC Championship game also with Georgia and they aren’t going to keep the SEC runner up out. Having Alabama in over A&M at this point whenever Alabama has 2 conference losses makes zero sense. It’s flawed.

Correct. It's flawed. That's the point.

 

[bamawriter]

WEEK 11 2024 RANKINGS (with CFP/AP/Coaches):

1. Ohio St (8-1) - 175.3938 (2/2/2)
2. Alabama (7-2) - 175.1662 (10/9/9)
3. Oregon (10-0) - 172.2641 (1/1/1)
4. Texas (8-1) - 168.6700 (3/3/3)
5. Notre Dame (8-1) - 165.1398 (8/8/7)
6. Indiana (10-0) - 165.0514 (5/5/6)
7. BYU (9-0) - 161.0135 (6/7/8)
8. Boise St (8-1) - 160.1715 (13/13/t13)
9. Penn St (8-1) - 159.3835 (4/4/5)
10. Miami (9-1) - 157.2083 (9/12/12)
11. SMU (8-1) - 155.4849 (14/14/t13)
12. Ole Miss (8-2) - 155.0187 (11/10/11)
13. Louisville (6-3) - 151.1493 (19/22/24)
14. Georgia (7-2) - 151.1210 (12/11/10)
15. Tennessee (8-1) - 148.8260 (7/6/4)
16. Army (9-0) - 148.5625 (24/16/17)
17. Washington St (8-1) - 146.0231 (18/19/18)
18. Texas A&M (7-2) - 144.7533 (15/15/15)
19. Kansas St (7-2) - 144.4774 (16/20/19)
20. Tulane (8-2) - 143.4890 (25/25/UR)
21. Colorado (7-2) - 142.6378 (17/18/20)
22. South Carolina (6-3) - 142.2299 (21/23/23)
23. ULL (8-1) - 140.7383 (UR/UR/UR)
24. Iowa St (7-2) - 138.1609 (UR/UR/25)
25. LSU (6-3) - 137.8115 (22/21/22)

 

[bamawriter]

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF AS OF TODAY:

1st Round:

Columbus, OH: 5 seed - #1 Ohio St vs 12 seed - #12 Ole Miss
Tuscaloosa, AL: 6 seed - #2 Alabama vs 11 seed - #11 SMU
South Bend, IN: 7 seed - #5 Notre Dame vs. 10 seed - #10 Miami (ACC Champ)
Bloomington, IN: 8 seed - #6 Indiana vs 9 seed - #9 Penn St

Quarterfinals:

Rose Bowl: 1 seed - #3 Oregon (Big 10 Champ)
Sugar Bowl: 2 seed - #4 Texas (SEC Champ)
Fiesta Bowl: 3 seed - #7 BYU (Big XII Champ)
Peach Bowl: 4 seed - #8 Boise St (Group of Five Champ)

 

[bamawriter]

The Rest of the SEC:

27. Missouri (7-2) - 135.9111 (23/24/21)
47. Oklahoma (5-5) - 118.8866
49. Vanderbilt (6-4) - 117.0320
63. Florida (4-5) - 110.3660
67. Arkansas (5-4) - 109.7853
91. Kentucky (3-6) - 97.4562
104. Auburn (3-6) - 88.9314
108. Mississippi St (2-8) - 78.4783

 

[bamawriter]

The Bottom 10:

125. NMSU (2-7) - 59.7760
126. Wyoming (2-7) - 59.6021
127. Utah St (2-7) - 59.0535
128. Purdue (1-8) - 56.3527
129. UMass (2-7) - 56.2930
130. Tulsa (3-6) - 54.6201
131. UTEP (2-8) - 54.5954
132. Kennesaw St (1-8) - 50.0725
133. Southern Miss (1-8) - 47.6678
134. Kent St (0-9) - 31.6231

Current Champions of Life (Lineal Title): South Carolina

 

[adam.vol]

Alabama at number 2 surprised me. I expected them to be higher here than anywhere else, but I can’t wrap my head around this one.

 

[bamawriter]

Alabama at number 2 surprised me. I expected them to be higher here than anywhere else, but I can’t wrap my head around this one.

This will likely be the last week this happens. As of right now, Bama's SOS is enormous. Bama has only played 1 team that is .500 or below (USF is one game under .500). Wisconsin is 1 game over .500. The remaining 7 are all multiple games above .500. But Bama is about to add an FCS opponent, currently 5-5 Oklahoma, and currently 3-6 Auburn. Even if Bama wins out, that huge SOS is going to dip.

 

[VolPack22]

Just a shade better than Washington State

 

[bamawriter]

WEEK 12 2024 RANKINGS (with CFP/AP/Coaches):

1. Ohio St (9-1) - 172.3799 (2/2/2)
2. Texas (9-1) - 169.8370 (3/3/3)
3. Oregon (11-0) - 169.4282 (1/1/1)
4. Alabama (8-2) - 167.3600 (7/7/7)
5. Notre Dame (9-1) - 165.6960 (6/6/6)
6. Indiana (10-0) - 161.6979 (5/5/5)
7. Boise St (9-1) - 161.2280 (12/12/13)
8. Georgia (8-2) - 160.4940 (10/8/8)
9. Miami (9-1) - 157.0850 (8/11/10)
10. Penn St (9-1) - 157.0619 (4/4/4)
11. SMU (9-1) - 153.9407 (13/13/12)
12. Ole Miss (8-2) - 153.7920 (9/9/9)
13. Army (9-0) - 149.6267 (19/18/17)
14. Tulane (9-2) - 148.5673 (20/20/20)
15. BYU (9-1) - 148.4530 (14/14/15)
16. South Carolina (7-3) - 146.4690 (18/19/19)
17. Colorado (8-2) - 144.5170 (16/16/18)
18. Tennessee (8-2) - 143.4250 (11/10/11)
19. Texas A&M (8-2) - 143.0190 (15/15/14)
20. Iowa St (8-2) - 141.7400 (22/22/21)
21. Clemson (8-2) - 141.6746 (17/17/16)
22. Kansas St (8-2) - 137.3315 (UR/UR/25)
23. Louisville (6-4) - 136.8070 (UR/UR/UR)
24. UNLV (8-2) - 136.3364 (24/23/23)
25. Washington St (8-2) - 135.4778 (UR/25/UR)

 

[bamawriter]

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF AS OF TODAY:

1st Round:

Columbus, OH: 5 seed - #1 Ohio St vs 12 seed - #15 BYU (Big XII Champ)
Tuscaloosa, AL: 6 seed - #4 Alabama vs 11 seed - #11 SMU
South Bend, IN: 7 seed - #5 Notre Dame vs. 10 seed -#10 Penn St
Bloomington, IN: 8 seed - #6 Indiana vs 9 seed - #8 Georgia

Quarterfinals:

Sugar Bowl: 1 seed - #2 Texas (SEC Champ)
Rose Bowl: 2 seed - #3 Oregon (Big 10 Champ)
Fiesta Bowl: 3 seed - #7 Boise St (Group of Five Champ)
Peach Bowl: 4 seed - #9 Miami (ACC Champ)

 

[bamawriter]

The Rest of the SEC:

28. Missouri (7-3) - 132.2190 (23/UR/UR)
30. LSU (6-4) - 129.3000
46. Oklahoma (5-5) - 118.6055
48. Vanderbilt (6-4) - 118.4120
49. Florida (5-5) - 116.9420
71. Arkansas (5-5) - 107.7450
82. Kentucky (4-6) - 100.8780
89. Auburn (4-6) - 97.2095
110. Mississippi St (2-8) - 78.4250

 

[bamawriter]

The Bottom 10:

125. NMSU (2-8) - 60.1754
126. FAU (2-8) - 59.5766
127. Wyoming (2-8) - 59.3185
128. UMass (2-8) - 59.2089
129. Tulsa (3-7) - 56.5156
130. Purdue (1-9) - 55.0669
131. UTEP (2-8) - 54.3399
132. Kennesaw St (1-9) - 50.7429
133. Southern Miss (1-9) - 46.1720
134. Kent St (0-10) - 29.8370

Current Champions of Life (Lineal Title): South Carolina

 

[CAVPUT]

Back in 2011, during the controversy surrounding the Bama-LSU rematch, I started putting together my own version of a BCS computer ranking system. I was going to use it in a future column to detail how stupid the very concept of the computers is when it comes to determining a champion. But, before I had the chance to write that column, the playoff was announced, and it seemed sort of pointless.

Anyway, I was clearing of a hard drive and found my system. Because I'm bored, I decided to update it for the past several seasons just to see what it would spit out for the four team playoff. Thought some on here might find it interesting. Certainly could spur some debate.

Here's the idea:

Bias is completely eliminated. Team names, history, and conference are all ignored. Winning % and strength of schedule are the most important factors. While the BCS eliminated margin of victory, I think that's ridiculous, so it's back in on mine. In order to adjust for home field advantage, I took the standard Vegas rule and subtracted 3 points for a game at home, and added 3 points for a road game, creating an adjusted point differential. I also included average yardage differential to help account for the way a game actually played out on the field. FCS opponents are given a standard .25 winning % and only their games against FBS teams count toward their point differential.

Here's the formula:

Winning % x 100 (too make it a whole number)
+
Opponents' Winning % x 100
+
Average Adjusted Point Differential
+
Opponents' Average Point Differential
+
Average Yardage Differential / 100
=
SCORE


As an example, 2015 Tennessee had the following score (bowl game not included):

(.6667 x 100) + (.5385 x 100) + 12.4167 + .5753 + (52.0833 / 100) = 134.0328

Interestingly, my system from last year produced the same 4 playoff teams, and even the same semifinal matchups, but with different seeding:

1. Alabama - 176.4984
2. Clemson - 175.6221
3. Oklahoma - 174.9711
4. Mich St. - 164.4958

Michigan State got in over Ohio State by .0007.

I went back to 2008 if anyone is interested in more.

Yeah, we needed another one of those.

 

[bamawriter]

I was out last week and didn't have the laptop that holds my math. So here's the Top 25 from last week and then I'll jump to current.

WEEK 13 2024 RANKINGS (with CFP/AP/Coaches):

1. Ohio St (10-1) - 180.0424 (2/2/2)
2. Notre Dame (10-1) - 173.4012 (5/5/5)
3. Oregon (11-0) - 170.3364 (1/1/1)
4. Texas (10-1) - 169.6436 (3/3/3)
5. Miami (10-1) - 159.7893 (6/8/7)
6. Penn St (10-1) - 158.8596 (4/4/4)
7. Georgia (9-2) - 157.7193 (7/6/6)
8. Indiana (10-1) - 156.7423 (10/10/10)
9. Boise St (10-1) - 156.6130 (11/11/11)
10. Alabama (8-3) - 156.4735 (13/13/13)
11. SMU (10-1) - 156.2633 (9/9/9)
12. Tulane (9-2) - 150.8681 (17/18/18)
13. Ole Miss (8-3) - 146.1936 (14/15/16)
14. Tennessee (9-2) - 144.6616 (8/7/8)
15. Iowa St (9-2) - 143.3348 (18/17/17)
16. Louisville (7-4) - 143.6288 (UR/UR/UR)
17. South Carolina (8-3) - 142.9785 (15/16/14)
18. Army (9-1) - 142.9214 (UR/25/22)
19. BYU (9-2) - 142.7093 (19/19/20)
20. UNLV (9-2) - 141.3732 (UR/UR/UR)
21. Clemson (9-2) - 139.9797 (12/12/12)
22. Kansas St (8-3) - 138.6794 (24/UR/UR)
23. Texas A&M (8-3) - 138.3888 (20/20/19)
24. Arizona St (9-2) - 137.4218 (16/14/15)
25. Colorado (8-3) - 133.8979 (25/23/UR)

 

[bamawriter]

WEEK 14 2024 RANKINGS (with CFP/AP/Coaches):

1. Notre Dame (11-1) - 172.0996 (4/4/4)
2. Ohio St (10-2) - 169.8953 (6/7/8)
3. Texas (11-1) - 169.6014 (2/2/2)
4. Oregon (12-0) - 169.0033 (1/1/1)
5. SMU (11-1) - 158.4003 (8/8/7)
6. Georgia (10-2) - 156.8181 (5/5/5)
7. Boise St (11-1) - 156.7050 (10/10/10)
8. Penn St (11-1) - 156.2506 (3/3/3)
9. Alabama (9-3) - 155.6658 (11/11/11)
10. Indiana (11-1) - 155.2897 (9/9/9)
11. Miami (10-2) - 152.2675 (12/14/14)
12. Tennessee (10-2) - 147.2056 (7/6/6)
13. South Carolina (9-3) - 146.9608 (14/13/12)
14. Army (10-1) - 145.2436 (24/24/23)
15. Tulane (9-3) - 145.2332 (UR/UR/UR)
16. Iowa St (10-2) - 145.2231 (16/16/16)
17. Ole Miss (9-3) - 143.2478 (13/15/15)
18. Louisville (8-4) - 141.7691 (UR/UR/UR)
19. BYU (10-2) - 141.5819 (18/17/18)
20. UNLV (10-2) - 140.2284 (20/19/19)
21. Arizona St (10-2) - 139.8681 (15/12/13)
22. Syracuse (9-3) - 139.2061 (22/23/25)
23. Colorado (9-3) - 135.6228 (23/20/22)
24. Clemson (9-3) - 134.5804 (17/18/17)
25. Texas A&M (8-4) - 134.3758 (UR/UR/UR)

 

[bamawriter]

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF AS OF TODAY:

1st Round:

South Bend, IN: 5 seed - #1 Notre Dame vs 12 seed - #16 Iowa St (Big XII Champ)
Columbus, OH: 6 seed - #2 Ohio St vs 11 seed - #11 Miami
Athens, GA: 7 seed - #6 Georgia vs. 10 seed -#10 Indiana
State College, PA: 8 seed - #8 Penn St vs 9 seed - #9 Alabama

Quarterfinals:

Sugar Bowl: 1 seed - #3 Texas (SEC Champ)
Rose Bowl: 2 seed - #4 Oregon (Big 10 Champ)
Peach Bowl: 3 seed - #5 SMU (ACC Champ)
Fiesta Bowl: 4 seed - #7 Boise St (Group of Five Champ)

 

[bamawriter]

The Rest of the SEC:

27. LSU (8-4) - 133.7800
28. Missouri (9-3) - 133.0544
41. Florida (7-5) - 122.1661
44. Oklahoma (6-6) - 119.8228
59. Vanderbilt (6-6) - 110.6950
63. Arkansas (6-6) - 108.5967
81. Auburn (5-7) - 99.8306
89. Kentucky (4-8) - 97.0444
111. Mississippi St (2-10) - 76.9256

 

[bamawriter]

The Bottom 10:

125. San Diego St (3-9) - 61.9183
126. UTEP (3-9) - 58.4149
127. NMSU (3-9) - 58.1530
128. MTSU (3-9) - 58.1366
129. UMass (2-10) - 56.0402
130. Kennesaw St (2-10) - 52.4563
131. Purdue (1-11) - 51.0989
132. Tulsa (3-9) - 44.2572
133. Southern Miss (1-11) - 38.4783
134. Kent St (0-12) - 26.2100

The Golden Flashes have clinched the bottom spot in resounding fashion,

Current Champions of Life (Lineal Title): South Carolina

 

[bamawriter]

FINAL 2024 RANKINGS (with CFP/AP/Coaches):

1. Oregon (13-0) - 172.0794 (1/1/1)
2. Notre Dame (11-1) - 170.9112 (5/3/3)
3. Ohio St (10-2) - 169.3814 (6/6/7)
4. Texas (11-2) - 163.9051 (3/4/4)
5. Georgia (11-2) - 160.0689 (2/2/2)
6. Boise St (12-1) - 159.5412 (9/8/8)
7. Indiana (11-1) - 155.2897 (8/9/9)
8. Alabama (9-3) - 155.0147 (11/11/11)
9. SMU (11-2) - 152.9681 (10/12/12)
10. Penn St (11-2) - 152.7107 (4/5/5)
11. Miami (10-2) - 152.2675 (13/15/16)
12. Tennessee (10-2) - 147.2478 (7/7/6)
13. South Carolina (9-3) - 147.0549 (15/14/14)
14. Arizona St (11-2) - 145.4485 (12/10/10)
15. Army (11-2) - 143.6666 (22/19/18)*
16. Ole Miss (9-3) - 143.2900 (14/16/15)
17. Louisville (8-4) - 141.5589 (UR/UR/UR)
18. BYU (10-2) - 141.0595 (17/17/17)
19. Clemson (10-3) - 139.9229 (16/13/13)
20. Tulane (9-4) - 139.7560 (UR/UR/UR)
21. Iowa St (10-3) - 139.3693 (18/18/19)
22. Syracuse (9-3) - 138.8162 (21/22/25)
23. Navy (9-3) - 138.3136 (UR/UR/UR)*
24. UNLV (10-3) - 136.9737 (24/24/24)
25. Colorado (9-3) - 135.6228 (23/23/22)

*The polls were all concluded before the Army-Navy game. The above math includes that result.

 

[VolPack22]

The Bottom 10:

125. San Diego St (3-9) - 61.9183
126. UTEP (3-9) - 58.4149
127. NMSU (3-9) - 58.1530
128. MTSU (3-9) - 58.1366
129. UMass (2-10) - 56.0402
130. Kennesaw St (2-10) - 52.4563
131. Purdue (1-11) - 51.0989
132. Tulsa (3-9) - 44.2572
133. Southern Miss (1-11) - 38.4783
134. Kent St (0-12) - 26.2100

The Golden Flashes have clinched the bottom spot in resounding fashion,

Current Champions of Life (Lineal Title): South Carolina

Champions of Life should probably be Alabama now

 

[bamawriter]

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF ACCORDING TO THE MATH:

1st Round:

South Bend, IN: 5 seed - #2 Notre Dame vs. 12 seed - #15 Army (American Champ)
Columbus, OH: 6 seed - #3 Ohio St vs. 11 seed - #10 Penn St
Austin, TX: 7 seed - #4 Texas vs. 10 seed -#9 SMU
Bloomington, IN: 8 seed - #7 Indiana vs. 9 seed - #8 Alabama

Quarterfinals:

Rose Bowl: 1 seed - #1 Oregon (Big 10 Champ)
Sugar Bowl: 2 seed - #5 Georgia (SEC Champ)
Fiesta Bowl: 3 seed - #6 Boise St (Mountain West Champ)
Peach Bowl: 4 seed - #14 Arizona St (Big XII Champ)

 

[bamawriter]

The Rest of the SEC:

26. LSU (8-4) - 133.7800
27. Texas A&M (8-4) - 133.6253
28. Missouri (9-3) - 133.0544
42. Florida (7-5) - 121.4578
46. Oklahoma (6-6) - 118.3436
58. Vanderbilt (6-6) - 109.9445
63. Arkansas (6-6) - 107.8461
78. Auburn (5-7) - 99.8728
87. Kentucky (4-8) - 96.6577
111. Mississippi St (2-10) - 76.4229