I Created a CFB Ranking System

#151
#151
I actually agree with your rankings on the top 4.
 
#152
#152
I wasn't sure whether to bother posting it this year, but after 5 weeks my system was spitting out some funny stuff. Maybe some folks will be amused.

WEEK 5 Top 25 (with AP/Coaches):

1. UCF (3-0) - 209.2167 (25/25)
2. Clemson (5-0) - 191.4520 (2/2)
3. Alabama (5-0) - 190.2240 (1/1)
4. TCU (4-0) - 185.5725 (8/10)
5. Georgia (5-0) - 182.2680 (5/6)
6. Miami (3-0) - 181.0567 (13/12)
7. Penn St (5-0) - 172.9633 (4/4)
8. Ohio St (4-1) - 171.0020 (10/9)
9. Wisconsin (4-0) - 170.1600 (9/8)
10. Michigan (4-0) - 168.6025 (7/7)
11. USC (4-1) - 166.4740 (14/15)
12. Notre Dame (4-1) - 162.4840 (t21/22)
13. Oklahoma (4-0) - 159.5900 (3/3)
14. Oklahoma St (4-1) - 158.2180 (15/14)
15. Washington (5-0) - 157.3440 (6/5)
16. Florida (3-1) - 155.0850 (t21/20)
17. Virginia Tech (4-1) - 152.6180 (16/19)
18. Maryland (3-1) - 150.9625 (UR/UR)
19. San Diego St (5-0) - 149.1240 (19/21)
20. Navy (4-0) - 147.1975 (UR/UR)
21. Washington St (5-0) - 143.7760 (11/11)
22. Iowa (3-2) - 143.6600 (UR/UR)
23. SMU (4-1) - 143.6287 (UR/UR)
24. Oregon (4-1) - 143.4920 (UR/UR)
25. Auburn (4-1) - 142.5853 (12/13)
 
#153
#153
The Rest of the SEC:

27. Mississippi St (3-2) - 137.8740
28. Kentucky (4-1) - 137.7380
42. Texas A&M (4-1) - 130.6880
44. South Carolina (3-2) - 127.6660
46. Vanderbilt (3-2) - 123.6873
58. Arkansas (2-2) - 117.4650
64. Tennessee (3-2) - 111.8727
74. LSU (3-2) - 106.8280
90. Ole Miss (2-2) - 95.4575
119. Missouri (1-3) - 62.4650
 
#155
#155
bamawriter said:
I wasn't sure whether to bother posting it this year, but after 5 weeks my system was spitting out some funny stuff. Maybe some folks will be amused.

WEEK 5 Top 25 (with AP/Coaches):

1. UCF (3-0) - 209.2167 (25/25)
2. Clemson (5-0) - 191.4520 (2/2)
3. Alabama (5-0) - 190.2240 (1/1)
4. TCU (4-0) - 185.5725 (8/10)
5. Georgia (5-0) - 182.2680 (5/6)
6. Miami (3-0) - 181.0567 (13/12)
7. Penn St (5-0) - 172.9633 (4/4)
8. Ohio St (4-1) - 171.0020 (10/9)
9. Wisconsin (4-0) - 170.1600 (9/8)
10. Michigan (4-0) - 168.6025 (7/7)
11. USC (4-1) - 166.4740 (14/15)
12. Notre Dame (4-1) - 162.4840 (t21/22)
13. Oklahoma (4-0) - 159.5900 (3/3)
14. Oklahoma St (4-1) - 158.2180 (15/14)
15. Washington (5-0) - 157.3440 (6/5)
16. Florida (3-1) - 155.0850 (t21/20)
17. Virginia Tech (4-1) - 152.6180 (16/19)
18. Maryland (3-1) - 150.9625 (UR/UR)
19. San Diego St (5-0) - 149.1240 (19/21)
20. Navy (4-0) - 147.1975 (UR/UR)
21. Washington St (5-0) - 143.7760 (11/11)
22. Iowa (3-2) - 143.6600 (UR/UR)
23. SMU (4-1) - 143.6287 (UR/UR)
24. Oregon (4-1) - 143.4920 (UR/UR)
25. Auburn (4-1) - 142.5853 (12/13)
Click to expand...


I have had a system since 2006, and I also have UCF at No. 1. They're looking very solid, but part of their ranking is because of the games they've missed. Bama is just now in my Top 10, because they received no return on the FSU win until Saturday.

My system has had the four playoff teams ranked inside the Top 4 each year of the playoffs and last year had them in order, 1-4, for the first time.
 
#156
#156
ukvols said:
I have had a system since 2006, and I also have UCF at No. 1. They're looking very solid, but part of their ranking is because of the games they've missed. Bama is just now in my Top 10, because they received no return on the FSU win until Saturday.

My system has had the four playoff teams ranked inside the Top 4 each year of the playoffs and last year had them in order, 1-4, for the first time.
Click to expand...

Bama was #7 in mine last week, but they were helped by FSU, Fresno, and CSU all winning. UCF's score is fool's gold at the moment because of their limited resume. Interestingly, the other 3-0 team aside from UCF and Miami is UTSA, and they're down at 54th.
 
#157
#157
bamawriter said:
The Rest of the SEC:

27. Mississippi St (3-2) - 137.8740
28. Kentucky (4-1) - 137.7380
42. Texas A&M (4-1) - 130.6880
44. South Carolina (3-2) - 127.6660
46. Vanderbilt (3-2) - 123.6873
58. Arkansas (2-2) - 117.4650
64. Tennessee (3-2) - 111.8727
74. LSU (3-2) - 106.8280
90. Ole Miss (2-2) - 95.4575
119. Missouri (1-3) - 62.4650
Click to expand...

That would mean there are 65 teams worse than Tennessee. I find that hard to believe.
 
#159
#159
Do you have one for march madness also? If so, how have you done? I made an algorithm in undergrad and won a few brackets with it.

Disclaimer: I didnt read all 11 so if you already mentioned it, my bad.
 
#161
#161
WEEK 6 Top 25 (with AP/Coaches):

1. UCF (4-0) - 188.5267 (22/21)
2. Clemson (6-0) - 188.0161 (2/2)
3. Alabama (6-0) - 186.3817 (1/1)
4. Georgia (6-0) - 184.4117 (4/5)
5. Penn St (6-0) - 181.3072 (3/3)
6. TCU (5-0) - 177.8440 (6/7)
7. Ohio St (5-1) - 174.1511 (9/8)
8. Wisconsin (5-0) - 167.3180 (7/6)
9. Miami (4-0) - 164.1242 (11/10)
10. Washington St (6-0) - 160.7528 (8/9)
11. USC (5-1) - 160.1917 (13/13)
12. Washington (6-0) - 159.7794 (5/4)
13. Notre Dame (5-1) - 159.5344 (16/19)
14. Oklahoma St (4-1) - 157.1647 (14/14)
15. Michigan St (4-1) - 156.6440 (21/22)
16. San Diego St (6-0) - 155.0633 (19/18)
17. Houston (4-1) - 148.2393 (UR/UR)
18. Iowa (4-2) - 147.9528 (UR/UR)
19. Michigan (4-1) - 146.0013 (17/16)
20. NC State (5-1) - 145.7706 (20/20)
21. Navy (5-0) - 145.2600 (25/24)
22. Oklahoma (4-1) - 144.7633 (12/12)
23. Stanford (4-2) - 144.1228 (23/25)
24. Virginia Tech (5-1) - 143.3294 (15/17)
25. Auburn (5-1) - 143.1494 (10/11)
 
#162
#162
The Rest of the SEC:

28. Mississippi St (3-2) - 140.2207
34. Kentucky (5-1) - 131.5533
35. Texas A&M (4-2) - 131.2894
37. Florida (3-2) - 130.2333
39. South Carolina (4-2) - 129.9072
56. LSU (4-2) - 117.1050
63. Vanderbilt (3-3) - 113.4789
69. Tennessee (3-2) - 109.0527
82. Arkansas (2-3) - 97.6660
96. Ole Miss (2-3) - 89.7887
109. Missouri (1-4) - 71.9593
 
#163
#163
bamawriter said:
WEEK 6 Top 25 (with AP/Coaches):

1. UCF (4-0) - 188.5267 (22/21)
9. Miami (4-0) - 164.1242 (11/10)
16. San Diego St (6-0) - 155.0633 (19/18)
17. Houston (4-1) - 148.2393 (UR/UR)
18. Iowa (4-2) - 147.9528 (UR/UR)
21. Navy (5-0) - 145.2600 (25/24)
Click to expand...


What is the SOS adjustment for teams like those above, especially UCF? I mean, they are whalloping teams by large margins, but they aren't exactly tough competition.
 
#164
#164
lawgator1 said:
What is the SOS adjustment for teams like those above, especially UCF? I mean, they are whalloping teams by large margins, but they aren't exactly tough competition.
Click to expand...

Keep in mind, my S.O.S. figure is based solely on wins/losses and point differential.

So a team like UCF has a decent SOS. They are currently ranked 56th in that measure. However, last week was way higher because they had only played 3 opponents, and those three opponents were unbeaten outside of their losses to UCF. That's no longer the case, obviously.

As for rest of your list:

Miami's SOS = 88th
SDSU = 93rd
Houston = 48th
Iowa = 10th (Iowa's only opponent below .500 is 2-3 Illinois.)
Navy = 112th

Obviously, teams like SDSU and Navy would be ranked higher overall if they had played better teams. South Florida is 5-0, but they are ranked at 29th (behind 3-2 Miss St) because they have the 129th SOS. USF's best win is 3-3 Temple.
 
#165
#165
bamawriter said:
Keep in mind, my S.O.S. figure is based solely on wins/losses and point differential.

So a team like UCF has a decent SOS. They are currently ranked 56th in that measure. However, last week was way higher because they had only played 3 opponents, and those three opponents were unbeaten outside of their losses to UCF. That's no longer the case, obviously.

As for rest of your list:

Miami's SOS = 88th
SDSU = 93rd
Houston = 48th
Iowa = 10th (Iowa's only opponent below .500 is 2-3 Illinois.)
Navy = 112th

Obviously, teams like SDSU and Navy would be ranked higher overall if they had played better teams. South Florida is 5-0, but they are ranked at 29th (behind 3-2 Miss St) because they have the 129th SOS. USF's best win is 3-3 Temple.
Click to expand...


Ok, so your SOS factor to be attributed to a given game is simply the W/L percentage of that other team, and does not include any objective or subjective measure of that?
 
#166
#166
lawgator1 said:
Ok, so your SOS factor to be attributed to a given game is simply the W/L percentage of that other team, and does not include any objective or subjective measure of that?
Click to expand...

Yep.

The whole point of the exercise is to point out the flaws that are innate to computer or math systems. There is always hand-wringing over polls and the CFP committee, but any human-based system is far superior to any math-based system.
 
#167
#167
bamawriter said:
Yep.

The whole point of the exercise is to point out the flaws that are innate to computer or math systems. There is always hand-wringing over polls and the CFP committee, but any human-based system is far superior to any math-based system.
Click to expand...

I guess the theory is that, over the course of a ten + game season the qualitative differences have a way of evening themselves out. We know, for example, that UCF is not really the #1 team, even if the math says they are right now because their schedule has been so weak. And you assume that they will at some point have that reflected in their position based on variance reducing over the course of a season.

Interestingly, however, in their case they really only have two decent opponents coming up, Navy and USF. Good, but by no means super strong, relative to what the power 5 teams have left .
 
#168
#168
lawgator1 said:
I guess the theory is that, over the course of a ten + game season the qualitative differences have a way of evening themselves out. We know, for example, that UCF is not really the #1 team, even if the math says they are right now because their schedule has been so weak. And you assume that they will at some point have that reflected in their position based on variance reducing over the course of a season.

Interestingly, however, in their case they really only have two decent opponents coming up, Navy and USF. Good, but by no means super strong, relative to what the power 5 teams have left .
Click to expand...

Correct. In fact, there is almost no way that UCF will remain at the top next week even if they destroy ECU, as that would tack a 1-6 opponent onto their SOS.
 
#169
#169
A system I've been messing around with is spitting out this as the top 25 (Only did it for 67 major teams as of right now while I still tinker).

1 Alabama
2 Penn State
3 Georgia
4 UCF
5 Wash state
6 Clemson
7 Ohio State
8 Washington
9 Auburn
10 Wisconsin
11 Miami (FL)
12 Notre Dame
13 Oklahoma
14 TX Christian
15 Oklahoma ST
16 Virginia Tech
17 Michigan
18 Utah
19 USC
20 Stanford
21 NC State
22 Virginia
23 Kentucky
24 Oregon
25 Georgia Tech

SEC Teams
30 Texas A&M
35 South Carolina
36 Florida
45 LSU
51 Miss. State
53 Tennessee
54 Arkansas
57 Vanderbilt
60 Mississippi
65 Missouri
 
#172
#172
bamawriter said:
WEEK 6 Top 25 (with AP/Coaches):

1. UCF (4-0) - 188.5267 (22/21)
2. Clemson (6-0) - 188.0161 (2/2)
3. Alabama (6-0) - 186.3817 (1/1)
4. Georgia (6-0) - 184.4117 (4/5)
5. Penn St (6-0) - 181.3072 (3/3)
6. TCU (5-0) - 177.8440 (6/7)
7. Ohio St (5-1) - 174.1511 (9/8)
8. Wisconsin (5-0) - 167.3180 (7/6)
9. Miami (4-0) - 164.1242 (11/10)
10. Washington St (6-0) - 160.7528 (8/9)
11. USC (5-1) - 160.1917 (13/13)
12. Washington (6-0) - 159.7794 (5/4)
13. Notre Dame (5-1) - 159.5344 (16/19)
14. Oklahoma St (4-1) - 157.1647 (14/14)
15. Michigan St (4-1) - 156.6440 (21/22)
16. San Diego St (6-0) - 155.0633 (19/18)
17. Houston (4-1) - 148.2393 (UR/UR)
18. Iowa (4-2) - 147.9528 (UR/UR)
19. Michigan (4-1) - 146.0013 (17/16)
20. NC State (5-1) - 145.7706 (20/20)
21. Navy (5-0) - 145.2600 (25/24)
22. Oklahoma (4-1) - 144.7633 (12/12)
23. Stanford (4-2) - 144.1228 (23/25)
24. Virginia Tech (5-1) - 143.3294 (15/17)
25. Auburn (5-1) - 143.1494 (10/11)
Click to expand...

Looks pretty good other than UCF Auburn and Oklahoma
 
#173
#173
WEEK 7 Top 25 (with AP/Coaches):

1. Alabama (7-0) - 188.7492 (1/1)
2. Penn St (6-0) - 183.9243 (2/2)
3. TCU (6-0) - 178.9517 (4/4)
4. Georgia (7-0) - 175.4307 (3/3)
5. UCF (5-0) - 174.7114) (20/20)
6. Ohio St (6-1) - 173.9139 (6/6)
7. Clemson (6-1) - 170.0116 (7/8)
8. Miami (5-0) - 168.1922 (8/7)
9. Wisconsin (6-0) - 164.6517 (5/5)
10. Notre Dame (5-1) - 159.7670 (13/16)
11. USC (6-1) - 158.9633 (11/10)
12. Michigan St (5-1) - 155.8847 (18/19)
13. Oklahoma St (5-1) - 153.9809 (10/11)
14. Iowa (4-2) - 151.7583 (UR/UR)
15. Washington (6-1) - 149.8766 (12/12)
16. Memphis (5-1) - 148.9428 (25/UR)
17. NC State (6-1) - 148.7819 (t16/17)
18. Oklahoma (5-1) - 148.1028 (9/9)
19. Stanford (5-2) - 147.8552 (22/22)
20. Michigan (5-1) - 146.3306 (19/15)
21. San Diego St (6-1) - 145.0626 (UR/UR)
22. Virginia Tech (5-1) - 141.1152 (14/14)
23. Washington St (6-1) - 140.2760 (15/18)
24. Boise St (4-2) - 139.2562 (UR/UR)
25. Navy (5-1) - 137.4387 (UR/UR)
 
#174
#174
The Rest of the SEC:

29. Mississippi St (4-2) - 135.4712
30. Auburn (5-2) - 134.0782 (21/21)
31. Texas A&M (5-2) - 133.5700 (UR/24)
32. South Carolina (5-2) - 132.5824
34. Kentucky (5-1) - 130.2954
42. LSU (5-2) - 126.1212 (24/25)
53. Florida (3-3) - 118.4435
75. Ole Miss (3-3) - 103.0133
78. Arkansas (2-4) - 101.5733
83. Tennessee (3-3) - 97.3340
86. Vanderbilt (3-4) - 95.7788
108. Missouri (1-5) - 72.7579
 
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