I still say Vols must beat Ole Miss in Oxford Wed AND win first SEC tourney game to #1

#51
#51
99gator said:
The scenario I originally laid out, which is possible, but I would argue is highly improbable is Florida winning out which means also beating Bama @ Bama and then winning the tournament.

But, for sake of argument, i'll address your scenario where florida loses at Bama and Bama loses to Auburn.

In your scenario, if at the SEC tournament, it went chalk.....right now that would mean Florida would have to beat OleMiss, then Alabama, then Auburn. Bama would have to beat A&M, Florida, then Auburn. Then, yes, I think they would leap frog to a 1 seed.

I think again people are dismissing the human element and I think that it's not entirely data driven. From the Florida resume standpoint, right off the bat, the #1 overall seed would be Auburn who would finish the season (under this scenario) with three losses. Two them would be to Florida and neither of those games would be played in Gainesville. That alone, I think would cause people to pause considering (again under these circumstances), Alabama would be 0-2 vs. Auburn, Tennessee would be 0-2 vs. Auburn (losing in the SEC tourney semis), and Florida would have also split with Alabama (losing @ Alabama, winning at the tournament) and Tennessee on the season.

I could be wrong. And as I've said before, I'm worried about the draw and not the seed. When the bracket comes out, I may be overjoyed to be the #2 seed instead of the #1 seed. Who knows?

I also believe that for this to happen I think the tournament needs to be "chalk". If games at the tournament are against Kentucky, A&M, Ole Miss, etc., because of upsets.....then, I think Alabama and Florida have no shot and I would expect Tennessee to get the nod as the 1 seed even if Bama or Florida won the tournament.
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I get where you’re coming from. If Florida does win at Auburn and then at Bama plus goes on to win the SEC tournament, that would be hard to ignore. I’ve always thought if we win out we would get the 1 but part of that had been assuming some losses, like you all losing at Bama and Bama losing at least 3 down the stretch and they already have. I did think Houston would lose 1 more regular season game but they’ve had some good fortune going against wounded teams and done a great job of taking care of business so that’s not looking likely now.
 
#52
#52
hUTch2002 said:
I get where you’re coming from. If Florida does win at Auburn and then at Bama plus goes on to win the SEC tournament, that would be hard to ignore. I’ve always thought if we win out we would get the 1 but part of that had been assuming some losses, like you all losing at Bama and Bama losing at least 3 down the stretch and they already have. I did think Houston would lose 1 more regular season game but they’ve had some good fortune going against wounded teams and done a great job of taking care of business so that’s not looking likely now.
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Well, where I am different is....does it really matter? With the exception of being closer to home.

What I mean is, If Houston is the 1 in the midwest region and Florida is the 2......is that so different that Florida being the 1 seed in the midwest region and Houston being the 2?

That's why I keep mentioning wanting to see the bracket. Depending on the draw, I'd rather play the winner of the 7-10 game than the 8-9 in order to get to the Sweet Sixteen.

Someone is going to get a Kansas or UConn in the 2nd round and won't be happy about it.
 
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#53
#53
Someone can correct me if I am wrong, but I believe if there is a 3 way tie in the standings (Florida, Alabama, Tennessee), Florida would get the 2 seed because of their win against Auburn.

I don't know where Tennessee and Alabama would fall.

Some of y'all may know the answer
 
#55
#55
99gator said:
Well, where I am different is....does it really matter? With the exception of being closer to home.

What I mean is, If Houston is the 1 in the midwest region and Florida is the 2......is that so different that Florida being the 1 seed in the midwest region and Houston being the 2?

That's why I keep mentioning wanting to see the bracket. Depending on the draw, I'd rather play the winner of the 7-10 game than the 8-9 in order to get to the Sweet Sixteen.

Someone is going to get a Kansas or UConn in the 2nd round and won't be happy about it.
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Always, always hope for the one seed. It's always a better draw, and that shows heavily in the tournament results over the last several decades.
 
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#57
#57
omghulkhands said:
Games played over the weekend don’t get counted because the committee sets the bracket EOD Friday or very early Saturday (this isn’t official, but it’s pretty widely accepted as the truth due to how seeding plays out each year. And it makes sense with needing to lock in a lot of logistics)

So this means only the SEC semi’s and finals won’t matter for seeding.
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That only applies if UT wins. Let us lose, and you can bet your last dollar it will matter to the committee.
 
#58
#58
ABtheVolsfan92 said:
exactly I keep seeing this argument that the conference tourneys don't matter. They do up until the sunday game, we lost our 1 seed last year because we lost to Miss St in the opening game
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Well two things can be true, because when we WON the SEC tourney a couple seasons ago, we put up a great argument for a 2 seed and still was left with a 3 seed and many ppl questioned why we didn’t get a 2 seed after winning the tourney!

Those selections are already made prior to the ending of the tournament!
 
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#60
#60
OrangeVolMan said:
Thus that come into play:

Florida plays @ Alabama
Alabama plays @ Auburn
Best case is for Alabama to beat Florida and Auburn to beat Alabama.

Tennessee is 10-5 in Quad 1 games
Florida is 6-4 in Quad 1 games
Big advantage Tennessee is total Quad 1 wins and Quad 1 games played.

If Tennessee goes 2-0 they appear to be lock for #1. If they lose to Ole Miss and beat USC it will be determined by the two games above.

I don’t think SEC tourney will be a factor unless a team flames out early and one of the other two runs the table.
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I agree with all of this!!

This was my Exact thoughts!
 
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#62
#62
99gator said:
Someone can correct me if I am wrong, but I believe if there is a 3 way tie in the standings (Florida, Alabama, Tennessee), Florida would get the 2 seed because of their win against Auburn.

I don't know where Tennessee and Alabama would fall.

Some of y'all may know the answer
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It's according to how you arrive there.

If Florida loses to Alabama, and Alabama loses to Auburn, with Tennessee winning vs Ole Miss and SC, Tennessee is the 2 seed, because the first tie-breaker in a three way is winning percentage against each other. Tennessee will be 2-1 vs Alabama/Florida. Alabama will be 1-1 vs Tennessee/Florida, and Florida will be 1-2 vs Tennessee Alabama. So Florida will be the #4 seed.
 
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#63
#63
BallsVolls1 said:
Well two things can be true, because when we WON the SEC tourney a couple seasons ago, we put up a great argument for a 1 seed and still was left with a 2 seed and many ppl questioned why we didn’t get a 1 after winning the tourney!
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The year we won the SECT we were a 3-seed. We were told that no matter what happened, Kentucky was the #2 seed and we were the three. We beat Kentucky, we won the SECT and Lunardi was right, we were the 3 and Kentucky was the 2, even though we had the same record and we were 2-1 vs Kentucky.
 
#64
#64
VolArmy74 said:
The year we won the SECT we were a 3-seed. We were told that no matter what happened, Kentucky was the #2 seed and we were the three. We beat Kentucky, we won the SECT and Lunardi was right, we were the 3 and Kentucky was the 2, even though we had the same record and we were 2-1 vs Kentucky.
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Well I may have misquote the seeding, but my point is, the SEC tourney game didn’t make a difference at all… especially with a championship game ending on a Sunday and the selections were already made prior to us winning the championship!

That season we still had a good resume and a tourney championship to seed higher than a 3!

Also, Texas A&M, who we beat that year to win the tourney, although they wasn’t having the best season, they still got to the championship game, put up an argument to make the NCAA tourney and still didn’t get in, so I’m more on the side of “SEC tourney” really don’t affect seeding unless you win outright as a lower seed!
 
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#65
#65
VolArmy74 said:
The year we won the SECT we were a 3-seed. We were told that no matter what happened, Kentucky was the #2 seed and we were the three. We beat Kentucky, we won the SECT and Lunardi was right, we were the 3 and Kentucky was the 2, even though we had the same record and we were 2-1 vs Kentucky.
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And to my memory, Texas A&M made the final and didn’t even make the tournament
 
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#67
#67
VOLINVONORE said:
If the right team shows up, we win any game we want to win. If the right team does not show up, we lose that game and go home. We played well at times against Alabama yesterday, but we also played poorly enough, at times, to have lost it. We have to ; get offensive rebounds, shoot at least 40% from the three, shout down the corner three, keep ZZ from dribbling down the lane and turning the ball over, and shoot open three when open to prevent rushing a shot with 2 seconds left on the clock. To sum its up, we need to ply very well and be aggressive at both ends of the court.
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They played well at times yesterday too, especially Sears.
 
#70
#70
ABtheVolsfan92 said:
not sure if mentioned in this thread but I'm not sleeping on the Gamecocks. They have finally figured it out and beat us in Knoxville last year, don't think we can sharpie that in as a W quite yet
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You honestly can’t sharpie in any games until the final buzzer!

This conference is so tough and the worst teams in the conference, sometimes play their best game against ranked teams!!

Vandy is a testament to that!
 
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#72
#72
VolGee4 said:
Everyone has their reasons, but we have a better resume than UF even with beating Bama. Our non conference resume is much better, and UF played a weaker schedule, even in conference.
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We have comparable records, split blow outs with you, and we have the marquis, convincing win over the #1 team, on the road. You can't really complain if we end up with the #1 seed over you.
 
#73
#73
lawgator1 said:
We have comparable records, split blow outs with you, and we have the marquis, convincing win over the #1 team, on the road. You can't really complain if we end up with the #1 seed over you.
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Comparable records don’t matter with unbalanced schedules- it’s who you play and beat. We have 10 Q1 wins over your 6. We have non conference wins at Louisville, at Illinois, and neutral to Baylor. Based on the NET and KP, those 3 are better than any one UF non conference win.

Sure, if you just want to use one game, then Auburn win it is (we lost by 2 there). But they evaluate the entire resume. Again, people will try to justify their opinion, but we clearly have the better resume.
 
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#74
#74
lawgator1 said:
We have comparable records, split blow outs with you, and we have the marquis, convincing win over the #1 team, on the road. You can't really complain if we end up with the #1 seed over you.
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NET strength of schedule we are 7th and UF is 35th. RPI SOS we are 4th and UF 27th. We've got as many Q1 wins currently as you've played games vs Q1.
 
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#75
#75
hUTch2002 said:
Let’s say UT wins out, UF loses to Bama and beats Ole Miss so we finish with the same record. Let’s then assume UT wins Friday and loses Saturday while UF wins the SEC tournament. You think that would jump UF over UT? I don’t. UT played a tougher schedule, especially out of conference where UT has 3 Quad 1 wins, all away from home and 2 true road game. UF has 1 neutral Quad 1 win against UNC. They do have 3 Quad 2 wins out of conference and I believe 2 of those were road but, historically, the conference tournaments haven’t mattered too much barring a new team
taking a spot from a bubble team. Anyway, I think UF is ridiculously good and so is UT. I think UT is a little more predictable and they’re a little less prone to wild swings in play from one game to the next (still happens of course) but UF has a slightly higher ceiling of play. If UF is playing their best we see what you get (Auburn). Maybe it’s not that UT can’t be that because they can if they shoot like they did at Oklahoma, we just haven’t seen it as much as we have from UF. UF is capable of consistently beating solid to good teams by double digits. UT can but they usually play those games closer. That’s probably a better way of saying what I was trying to say. Anyway, lots of words, what are your thoughts on the scenario I started this post with? Maybe Houston will do us both a favor and drop a game but I doubt it.
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I agee. It matters a ton who is projected as the #1 seed when the season ends.
Especially this year since we were a projected #1 seed when the 16 were revealed.
If we are that when the seson ends will be awful hard to take us off that line at that point.
Win one game in the tournament and I'd be willing to bet it's a done deal for us.

Right now all focus must go into beating Old Piss.
 
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