Is the Neocon vision coming to fruition?

#1
volinbham

volinbham

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#1
Just throwing this out. With the potential revolts occurring across the ME, is the neocon view of toppling dominoes coming to fruition?

Put another way, do you think things such as the images of people voting Iraq and coalition governments and/or the ousting of Taliban rule in Afghanistan have had any material role in motivating the revolts in Egypt, Iran, Libya, Morrocco, etc.?

I'll hang up and listen.
 
#2
#2
Not really.

It did set a few others off, but if all their populations revolted in the first place, they were all being pushed to that point. Could have happened first at any of them, then spread elsewhere.

IMO it has much more to do with the conditions of government and life in those countries to begin with. So, small role, yes, determining factor, no.
 
#3
#3
volinbham said:
Just throwing this out. With the potential revolts occurring across the ME, is the neocon view of toppling dominoes coming to fruition?

Put another way, do you think things such as the images of people voting Iraq and coalition governments and/or the ousting of Taliban rule in Afghanistan have had any material role in motivating the revolts in Egypt, Iran, Libya, Morrocco, etc.?

I'll hang up and listen.
Click to expand...

Yes, but it's getting car-jacked by code pink.
 
#4
#4
I don't think it is necessarily Neoconservatism, but Liberalism in general.

And for those who don't follow IR, I don't insinuate the American definition of Liberal.
 
#5
#5
bam15 said:
I don't think it is necessarily Neoconservatism, but Liberalism in general.

And for those who don't follow IR, I don't insinuate the American definition of Liberal.
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Well the Neocon notion is that democracy once established (installed?) in the ME will spread. It was a major part of the Iraq invasion.

I'm certainly not saying the ends justify the means but I wonder to what extend they were correct in this notion.
 
#6
#6
Seems to me that people go out and revolt / protest for very personal reasons that don't have anything to do with the greater ME or what's happening elsewhere. It has to be about local conditions and governance.

Certainly access to information when you're needlessly being forced to live perpetually in 1732 could lead to a dominos type analogy, but I think it's for different reasons than the neocon vision.
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#7
#7
volinbham said:
Well the Neocon notion is that democracy once established (installed?) in the ME will spread.

I'm certainly not saying the ends justify the means but I wonder to what extend they were correct in this notion.
Click to expand...

Liberalism implies the same thing. Wilson (OE's favorite guy) was predominately in favor of this -- as is Democratic Peace Theory. Neoconservatives are as famously stated...Liberals mugged by reality.
 
#8
#8
What, like communism spread itself?

It didn't spread itself organically, and neither will democracy, except in rare occurances. More likely is the probability that when a government collapses, there is a group or person waiting to fill the power vacuum rather than everybody getting together and figuring to let the people decide.

Democracy needs to be installed and guided, in the vast majority of cases it won't just "happen."
 
#9
#9
I think we have to admit that the current situation is a dominos situation. Tunisia, Egypt then boom.

It's a catalyst. I don't know if Iraq/Afghan had any catalytic effect though.
 
#10
#10
volinbham said:
I think we have to admit that the current situation is a dominos situation. Tunisia, Egypt then boom.

It's a catalyst. I don't know if Iraq/Afghan had any catalytic effect though.
Click to expand...

I think the catalyst has been widespread dismal economy with a little access to the outside world.
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#11
#11
There is generally a catalyst.

In the current situation there is a linkage as well. The uprisings are not independent events. They are self reinforcing.

Conditions on the ground aren't significantly different today than 5 years ago. Why now I wonder.
 
#12
#12
Okay, but given the availability of information these days, why would it have taken so long for these people to organize and revolt?

It happened because most of the governments in the ME either suck for its people or are non-existent, that has much, much more to do with it than people looking to their neighboring states and seeing elections.
 
#15
#15
milohimself said:
Okay, but given the availability of information these days, why would it have taken so long for these people to organize and revolt?

It happened because most of the governments in the ME either suck for its people or are non-existent, that has much, much more to do with it than people looking to their neighboring states and seeing elections.
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I agree. My speculation is though that the governments have sucked for decades. What got people off their arses? Twitter? I'd be interested in finding out what was the proverbial last straw or push off the cliff.

Kinda like the Arch Duke Ferdinand deal - what was the spark? What moved people to action?
 
#16
#16
IMO there's always been a conflict between the guidance of placement of a new government and letting it happen...

Does anybody think a Democracy can be installed with lasting success, or does it need to happen naturally with zero outside influence to work out?
 
#17
#17
volinbham said:
There is generally a catalyst.

In the current situation there is a linkage as well. The uprisings are not independent events. They are self reinforcing.

Conditions on the ground aren't significantly different today than 5 years ago. Why now I wonder.
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Well, in Egypt it's economic. I suspect that's transcendent. Internet access for the youth has been the oil.
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#19
#19
volinbham said:
But that is not a new situation.
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Little access is a two-hedged sword -- I think they are aware that their governments are attempting to keep them from contact with the outside world, but it is almost impossible to do as such in the 21st century.
 
#20
#20
milohimself said:
IMO there's always been a conflict between the guidance of placement of a new government and letting it happen...

Does anybody think a Democracy can be installed with lasting success, or does it need to happen naturally with zero outside influence to work out?
Click to expand...

The obstacles to democracy can be minimized but it has to be a deep will of the people to last.
 
#21
#21
volinbham said:
I agree. My speculation is though that the governments have sucked for decades. What got people off their arses? Twitter? I'd be interested in finding out what was the proverbial last straw or push off the cliff.

Kinda like the Arch Duke Ferdinand deal - what was the spark? What moved people to action?
Click to expand...

Breaking point. Kinda like blaming only the straw that broke the camel's back without looking at the fact that the thing was loaded down to begin with.
 
#22
#22
milohimself said:
Breaking point. Kinda like blaming only the straw that broke the camel's back without looking at the fact that the thing was loaded down to begin with.
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I'm trying to figure out what the breaking point was. Why did it occur now?

It may be decades before we know but something popped.
 
#23
#23
volinbham said:
The obstacles to democracy can be minimized but it has to be a deep will of the people to last.
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But can that will exist when the operation is being performed by someone else? I don't think you can.

If you buy somebody a car, they will probably treat it like crap. Make them work for it and earn it, then they will appreciate it and take care of it.
 
#24
#24
bam15 said:
Little access is a two-hedged sword -- I think they are aware that their governments are attempting to keep them from contact with the outside world, but it is almost impossible to do as such in the 21st century.
Click to expand...
Government repression is doomed by information about potential freedom.
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