Is the Neocon vision coming to fruition?

#26
#26
volinbham said:
I'm trying to figure out what the breaking point was. Why did it occur now?

It may be decades before we know but something popped.
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Somebody hopping on Twitter or fb and making a serious run at getting this thing going may have just been it.
 
#31
#31
milohimself said:
It is, but these movements aren't being led by anybody with the wherewithal to be installing a government, which leaves them in limbo.
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Which gets to your point about power vacuums. I get it and don't know the route to letting folks find a democratic or representative govt of their liking, but it's a start for the cavepeople of the ME.
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#32
#32
BigPapaVol said:
And honestly, the Chinese will evolve into something different.
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They already are...

There are a few thousand native Chinese here at PSU, and when I chat with any of them I ask how they like America to China, and most of them can't wait to get back home. And does seem to be from a genuine sense of liking the country better rather than homesickness.
 
#33
#33
BigPapaVol said:
Which gets to your point about power vacuums. I get it and don't know the route to letting folks find a democratic or representative govt of their liking, but it's a start for the cavepeople of the ME.
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Makes you realize how lucky we are to have had such a brilliant group of individuals leading the revolution.

Anyways, I've held the conclusion that in most cases (even more so these days with facebook and Twitter fueling these things) representative government can't happen organically, and that letting it go would only result in that country being worse off than it already was.

Any country who has the interest of stabilizing these areas is, at some point, going to have to come in and oversee something new being put in.
 
#34
#34
BigPapaVol said:
And honestly, the Chinese will evolve into something different.
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Correct. This what makes the 'fear of China' a red herring. Economic disparity between wealthy coastal regions and poor rural regions will force the Chinese to shift focus back onto its own issues in the near future.
As for the current ME sitation, I would like to believe our actions helped this start but it seems that Iraq/Afghanistan are too incomplete to serve as models. It seems the spark could have simply been the fruit vendor in Tunisia getting to the end of his rope and the locals protesting the muni's response. Once they saw the power of the people, information spread through modern tech. and the grassfire took off. Egyptians followed their model.
 
#35
#35
The Chinese will handle their business.

Aside from having easily the most viable economy in the world, their form of government lends itself to extreme stability.

It seems as if they're structured same as they ever were.
 
#36
#36
I have little faith these countries in the ME, North Africa, and Iran will advance to anything resembling a democracy. I think they will pay it lip-service and say it's democracy, but in the end, it's going to be anti-western Islamic fascism that wins out. College kids here in America can't stand Israel, so why should it be expected Iranian college kids be pro-Israel?

Not trying to sound conspiratorial, but I just don't see a better world coming out of what's going on right now.
 
#38
#38
volinbham said:
Just throwing this out. With the potential revolts occurring across the ME, is the neocon view of toppling dominoes coming to fruition?

Put another way, do you think things such as the images of people voting Iraq and coalition governments and/or the ousting of Taliban rule in Afghanistan have had any material role in motivating the revolts in Egypt, Iran, Libya, Morrocco, etc.?

I'll hang up and listen.
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Half right. I definitely think its a domino effect, but question is what toppled the first domino? I have yet to hear anyone interviewed in the ME countries at issue say they have decided to protest or revolt because of a freer Iraq or Afghanistan.

Rather, they seem to be motivated by being tired of economic repression and thievery of huge chunks of their respective GDPs by the top government leaders. Add to that the sharing and stirring of their collective outrage on the internet, and wham-o.

Information, and perhaps more importantly the ability of primarily young educated persons in these countries to instantly share and organize via the net, is why this is happening.
 
#39
#39
MG1968 said:
I have little faith these countries in the ME, North Africa, and Iran will advance to anything resembling a democracy. I think they will pay it lip-service and say it's democracy, but in the end, it's going to be anti-western Islamic fascism that wins out. College kids here in America can't stand Israel, so why should it be expected Iranian college kids be pro-Israel?

Not trying to sound conspiratorial, but I just don't see a better world coming out of what's going on right now.
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You're right, left to their own devices, these reformed and new governments in the ME are likely going to end up at least a bit more anti-American in nature.
 
#40
#40
MG1968 said:
I have little faith these countries in the ME, North Africa, and Iran will advance to anything resembling a democracy. I think they will pay it lip-service and say it's democracy, but in the end, it's going to be anti-western Islamic fascism that wins out. College kids here in America can't stand Israel, so why should it be expected Iranian college kids be pro-Israel?

Not trying to sound conspiratorial, but I just don't see a better world coming out of what's going on right now.
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I am hopeful that you and Fox News are wrong based on the fact that the people revolting are doing to for purposes of greater freedom, including economic freedom, and so Ilam is not high on the list of reasons they are protesting. They know full well what the old guard would do to their dreams of more economic prosperity, education, and desired connection to the west and they won't trade the current devil for that one.
 
#41
#41
Problem is, as I mentioned, the leaderless nature of these revolts. What gets put in the place of these other governments might fall within some parameters, but it's likely going to be a case of who cares enough to go in and put something together for them.
 
#42
#42
lawgator1 said:
I am hopeful that you and Fox News are wrong based on the fact that the people revolting are doing to for purposes of greater freedom, including economic freedom, and so Ilam is not high on the list of reasons they are protesting. They know full well what the old guard would do to their dreams of more economic prosperity, education, and desired connection to the west and they won't trade the current devil for that one.
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I hope you're right. However, I have little faith in college students doing the right thing. They will do what feels good first, after that it will resemble "Animal Farm".
 
#43
#43
milohimself said:
You're right, left to their own devices, these reformed and new governments in the ME are likely going to end up at least a bit more anti-American in nature.
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As noted above, I think there is a good chance you are wrong. The young educated people there want a chance to enterprise, to study and learn more, etc. While someone like Mubarak kept the radical Islamic in check in terms of Israel, the underpinnings of the protests and revolt are simply not, imo, motivated by attacking Israel.

So, while you might see the military bargaining for something so as not to become hostile to Israel, they've got other things on their mind it seems and so their motivation to become super conservative Muslim states is just not that high.

Look at Iran. Stirrings there again. To what? Have a more radical leadership? No. Its so that young people can expand their economic and intellectual horizons.
 
#44
#44
MG1968 said:
I hope you're right. However, I have little faith in college students doing the right thing. They will do what feels good first, after that it will resemble "Animal Farm".
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IIRC, a lot of the people in the streets in Egypt were more in their 30s and 40s, professional types, college professors, etc.
 
#45
#45
lawgator1 said:
IIRC, a lot of the people in the streets in Egypt were more in their 30s and 40s, professional types, college professors, etc.
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that's supposed to be a good thing? Look at the gaggle of academics running things in DC. If you want prosperity for your people, having academics in charge is not the way to go. Egypt's entrepreneurial spirit should be unleashed, not it's pointy-headed intellectual types.
 
#46
#46
lawgator1 said:
As noted above, I think there is a good chance you are wrong. The young educated people there want a chance to enterprise, to study and learn more, etc. While someone like Mubarak kept the radical Islamic in check in terms of Israel, the underpinnings of the protests and revolt are simply not, imo, motivated by attacking Israel.

So, while you might see the military bargaining for something so as not to become hostile to Israel, they've got other things on their mind it seems and so their motivation to become super conservative Muslim states is just not that high.

Look at Iran. Stirrings there again. To what? Have a more radical leadership? No. Its so that young people can expand their economic and intellectual horizons.
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I would like for that to happen, but young intellectuals are not the ones with the guns and the money.
 
#47
#47
MG1968 said:
that's supposed to be a good thing? Look at the gaggle of academics running things in DC. If you want prosperity for your people, having academics in charge is not the way to go. Egypt's entrepreneurial spirit should be unleashed, not it's pointy-headed intellectual types.
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Academics running things in DC?

Uh, it's people with lots of "charisma" and special interest groups. Not academics.

So anyways, you were saying? Having the smartest, brightest people figuring things out isn't a good idea?
 
#48
#48
Whatever emerges from this in the short term doesn't mean that this isn't the first step to a freer more democratic future.
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#49
#49
MG1968 said:
that's supposed to be a good thing? Look at the gaggle of academics running things in DC. If you want prosperity for your people, having academics in charge is not the way to go. Egypt's entrepreneurial spirit should be unleashed, not it's pointy-headed intellectual types.
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THIS!!!

How many Ivy League graduates have driven this country into the ground in the last 50 years?
 
#50
#50
MG1968 said:
that's supposed to be a good thing? Look at the gaggle of academics running things in DC. If you want prosperity for your people, having academics in charge is not the way to go. Egypt's entrepreneurial spirit should be unleashed, not it's pointy-headed intellectual types.
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Your misplaced disdain for higher education and intellectuals is sad.
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