It has occurred to me....

#26
#26
Sabanocchio said:
You are basically saying that in a healthy economy the jobless rate will remain virtually at the level that it is currently at which is simply not the case.
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We haven't had a healthy economy since probably the late 90s really. There have been so many people relying on debt to help them make money, that when the pool started to dry up 3 years ago, things went down hill quick. Also, the fact that we have went so far so fast with technology, the scripts that these computer programmers write take the place of human thought process for the most part. While, I'm sure that there will be someone point out the Dow Jones or the Nasdaq, those only go up when people buy, and a lot of people used debt to buy those stocks as well, and had to sell like crazy to get their situations under control.
 
#27
#27
That doesn't make any sense, Eric. New jobs will be created as quickly as old ones are replaced. It's the way it's always been.
 
#28
#28
Anyone remember hearing the theory that initially the fax machine, and later on email, would put an end to the express delivery business (e.g. UPS and Fedex)?
 
#30
#30
BigPapaVol said:
and financial sector has exploded, along with the consulting arena. Marketing is a far larger arena than it has ever been. Transition to a greener economy is going to be a huge boon to the jobs market over the next several decades, but the gov't might eff that up.
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So, more than likely, your going to have to have more of a Top shelf education to get into those markets. It's not like the average American can just jump right in, and the majority can't afford the student loans or have the cash just to get retrained.
 
#32
#32
g8terh8ter_eric said:
We haven't had a healthy economy since probably the late 90s really. There have been so many people relying on debt to help them make money, that when the pool started to dry up 3 years ago, things went down hill quick. Also, the fact that we have went so far so fast with technology, the scripts that these computer programmers write take the place of human thought process for the most part. While, I'm sure that there will be someone point out the Dow Jones or the Nasdaq, those only go up when people buy, and a lot of people used debt to buy those stocks as well, and had to sell like crazy to get their situations under control.
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market liquidity has always been a huge issue. Delusion on the downside and upside are both problems, but they also help make the market run. Liquidity is the oil that makes the engine run. Unfortunately, liquidity is also typically risk capital and there are just times that folks aren't willing to risk funds.

Debt makes our economy tick. It is by far the cheapest capital available to businesses. Equity capital and mezz financing are dramatically more expensive and simply make it too expensive for businesses to operate on a global scale. Debt isn't an enemy, but has to be managed ruthlessly.
 
#34
#34
g8terh8ter_eric said:
So, more than likely, your going to have to have more of a Top shelf education to get into those markets. It's not like the average American can just jump right in, and the majority can't afford the student loans or have the cash just to get retrained.
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that isn't true at all. You simply have to show that you have a skill or work ethic that is valuable to the buyer. Businesses are far less exclusive than you think if you show some skill / talent.

There is also more to it than retraining. High paying outfits recruit at the top schools because they know that the acceptance levels are very low, so most people they interview have already displayed much of what they're after. It's simply a percentages thing. The pedigree matters to some, but for most it's simply a better use of their time to go where they know, generally, that people meet their criteria.
 
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#35
#35
BigPapaVol said:
market liquidity has always been a huge issue. Delusion on the downside and upside are both problems, but they also help make the market run. Liquidity is the oil that makes the engine run. Unfortunately, liquidity is also typically risk capital and there are just times that folks aren't willing to risk funds.

Debt makes our economy tick. It is by far the cheapest capital available to businesses. Equity capital and mezz financing are dramatically more expensive and simply make it too expensive for businesses to operate on a global scale. Debt isn't an enemy, but has to be managed ruthlessly.
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Debt is like crack, it's extremely addictive and most people never know how bad they are until things start disappearing from their houses. Then one day, they wake up and their bad is gone, they don't have any food in the fridge, and they have 4 room mates in a 3 bed room apartment just to make rent. That's when people choose to get it under control, but then it takes years to clean up the mess and retrain yourself.
 
#37
#37
utvolpj said:
and that's because of email or an inefficient gov't program?
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Both. Thing is, the post office is probably the most successful government program is history. It's the only program where you can buy services from the government. I can't think of any other government program out there that allows you to invest in it freely and openly. Now, I know taxes help run it, but because of the sales within it, it's a different beast, IMO.
 
#38
#38
g8terh8ter_eric said:
Debt is like crack, it's extremely addictive and most people never know how bad they are until things start disappearing from their houses. Then one day, they wake up and their bad is gone, they don't have any food in the fridge, and they have 4 room mates in a 3 bed room apartment just to make rent. That's when people choose to get it under control, but then it takes years to clean up the mess and retrain yourself.
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you're talking about personal, and generally discretionary, debt. I don't give a crap about that and liquidity in that arena is essentially immaterial to me. It matters to our economy some, but not much.

Commercial liquidity and commercial paper are an enormous deal. Companies that can efficiently issue their paper cheaply or borrow from lenders cheaply can reduce their cost of capital dramatically, which means that less of their income goes to pay interest or equity holders. Look up WACC, then tell me that debt is a bad thing.
 
#39
#39
g8terh8ter_eric said:
So, more than likely, your going to have to have more of a Top shelf education to get into those markets. It's not like the average American can just jump right in, and the majority can't afford the student loans or have the cash just to get retrained.
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I work in the tech industry and for the most part people want to see that you're competent, able to learn on the job, and are able to think on your feet. You'd be surprised how many people have two year degrees or tech school training that work in my field and related fields. The whole idea that you have to go to college to get a good job is a delusion this country has bought hook line and sinker. While college degrees may help give you a leg up in many situations, most business demand competency and could care less where or how much schooling you have as long as you can do the job.
 
#40
#40
g8terh8ter_eric said:
Both. Thing is, the post office is probably the most successful government program is history. It's the only program where you can buy services from the government. I can't think of any other government program out there that allows you to invest in it freely and openly. Now, I know taxes help run it, but because of the sales within it, it's a different beast, IMO.
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big endorsement for a dept losing billions every year.

BigPapaVol said:
union
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agreed. Hard to be efficient when you have that on your back
 
#43
#43
g8terh8ter_eric said:
So, more than likely, your going to have to have more of a Top shelf education to get into those markets. It's not like the average American can just jump right in, and the majority can't afford the student loans or have the cash just to get retrained.
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the "average american" is college educated these days. as they say. we still will need ditch diggers.
 
#44
#44
BigPapaVol said:
you're talking about personal, and generally discretionary, debt. I don't give a crap about that and liquidity in that arena is essentially immaterial to me. It matters to our economy some, but not much.

Commercial liquidity and commercial paper are an enormous deal. Companies that can efficiently issue their paper cheaply or borrow from lenders cheaply can reduce their cost of capital dramatically, which means that less of their income goes to pay interest or equity holders. Look up WACC, then tell me that debt is a bad thing.
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I just got finished seeing one of my personal friends go through selling his business because he had too much debt. Businesses and people think they can manage it, but I would say that the reason 90% of small businesses fail is because they don't know how to manage finances. Debt is not OK, and just think if there was no debt in a company at all. Would make a much less stressful environment, IMO.
 
#48
#48
droski said:
the "average american" is college educated these days. as they say. we still will need ditch diggers.
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We do it now with curbs, gutters, water features, holding tanks and fancy flow management techniques (like bioswales). Developers apparently hate the uneducated too.
 
#49
#49
lumberjack4 said:
I work in the tech industry and for the most part people want to see that you're competent, able to learn on the job, and are able to think on your feet. You'd be surprised how many people have two year degrees or tech school training that work in my field and related fields. The whole idea that you have to go to college to get a good job is a delusion this country has bought hook line and sinker. While college degrees may help give you a leg up in many situations, most business demand competency and could care less where or how much schooling you have as long as you can do the job.
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The formal training to understand the green alternatives, is not one that will come cheap right now though. It's not a huge market, therefore its a smaller niche training arena. It's just like tech work, it used to cost an arm and a leg to get into the field, now you can study and take tests over the course of 6 months and learn more than those who go to school for 4 years, and have no student loans. I maybe off in the smaller arena comment, but you don't see solar panel schools or wind turbine colleges on every corner. At least not where I am.
 
#50
#50
g8terh8ter_eric said:
I just got finished seeing one of my personal friends go through selling his business because he had too much debt. Businesses and people think they can manage it, but I would say that the reason 90% of small businesses fail is because they don't know how to manage finances. Debt is not OK, and just think if there was no debt in a company at all. Would make a much less stressful environment, IMO.
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What BPV said was spot-on. You have to be able to manage your debt of course, but it is a necessary evil in the business world. There is good debt and bad debt. Similar to going in debt to purchase a house. You expect that it will work in your advantage in the end. Bad business is still bad business any way you put it. That's the case in any economy but in a poor one it is obviously magnified.
 
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