Jones at Cincy...

#26
#26
Volmorning said:
OK, I, for one, am happy with what Jones has accomplished in the short time he has been here. However, a point that is missed by Volnatoin, repeatedly, is that he went 4-8 his first season at Cincy. How do we, as Vol fans, rationalize this in the Southeastern Conference?

I don't know what to expect this year, but Butch doeas have a body of evidence that states don't expect much in the first year.

Thoughts?
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That 4-8 season at Cincy is exactly what his talent predicted he should have won. Every other year, he wins more games than his talent would predict.

Do not think that his 4 win season at Cincy is somehow an under-performance. It is, in fact, status-quo.

To summarize: talent averages can be used to predict the outcome of football games by simply averaging four years of recruiting numbers, doing that for each team, and creating an ordered list. If you see a matchup between two teams and pick the team with the higher average to win, you will be correct 60-70% of the time when looking at seasonal outcomes.

If you do that for Jones tenure at Cincy, here is what you will discover:

2010: Talent Predicted wins: 4; Actual Wins: 4
2011: Talent Predicted wins: 6; Actual Wins: 10
2012: Talent Predicted wins: 7; Actual Wins: 9 (remember he wasn't coaching for the 10th win against Duke in the bowl game).

So, Jones averages winning 2 games a season more than his predictions overall at Cincy. If you discount the first year where he was status quo, that number jumps to an average of +3 games a year during his final two seasons.

Also it is interesting to note how Jones improved the recruiting during his tenure. If you look at the four year talent averages beginning in 2010 (largely Kelly's recruits) Cincy averaged 68.75, in 2011 Cincy averaged 58.75 (Jones raised the talent average ten spots in one year), then in 2012 Cincy again increased to a four year trailing average of 54.5.

If Jones can only match his output of the 2010 season and win only as many games as his talent would predict in 2013, UT will go 7-5.

EDIT: Let me take it a step further.

In 2010 Jones beat both Louisville and Rutgers when he should have lost, and lost to Syracuse and Uconn, who he should have beaten. The end result is still a talent predicted 4 win season.

In 2011 Jones beat NCSU, Louisville, South Florida, and Pittsburgh who all had better talent. He did not lose to any team that he should have beaten. The end result is a talent plus 4 win season.

In 2012 Jones beat Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech and South Florida who had better talent but lost to Toledo who didn't. The end result is a talent plus 2 win season.

The key to remember is that as Jones 4 year trailing recruiting average gets better, his ability to have seasons with huge talent plus games goes down. In other words, if you recruit like Alabama, Saban will never be a talent +X games coach because he out recruits everyone.
 
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#27
#27
mkil5 said:
Derek Dooley and Sal Sunseri would disagree with this.
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And 2005 & 2008 Phillip Fulmer.

The thing that I am hopeful with CBJ first season here is that the players really do seem to have bought in to what CBJ is selling. That's something that didn't happen in Jone's first season at Cincinatti. If you remember Kelly bolted for ND right before Cinci's bowl game and they proceeded to get absolutely thrashed by Florida. After that beat down I'm sure the Cinci players had their doubts about Jones and his ability to coach. However it was a remarkable turnaround in his second season.
 
#30
#30
Volmorning said:
OK, I, for one, am happy with what Jones has accomplished in the short time he has been here. However, a point that is missed by Volnatoin, repeatedly, is that he went 4-8 his first season at Cincy. How do we, as Vol fans, rationalize this in the Southeastern Conference?

I don't know what to expect this year, but Butch doeas have a body of evidence that states don't expect much in the first year.

Thoughts?
Posted via VolNation Mobile
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Ashevolle said:
he didn't make an argument, but posed a question. reading comprehension is a valuable skill.
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One of the definitions of argument is "a process of reasoning."

The OP is using Butch Jones' 1st year record at Cincy as reasoning for UT fans to not expect much in the first year.

What else you got, Einstein!
 
#32
#32
RichRollin said:
This. One would first need to see what key players returned from the previous season. Was there extra attrition from the change? Etc. numbers numbers numbers....hey OP, we need numbers. Thanks in advance.
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The numbers weren't good. I posted a while back, some articles written by the Cincy media. Brian Kelly left an undermanned team, low on talent, and CBJ and staff had to cobble a defense together by playing some folks at unnatural positions.
 
#33
#33
Volmorning said:
OK, I, for one, am happy with what Jones has accomplished in the short time he has been here. However, a point that is missed by Volnatoin, repeatedly, is that he went 4-8 his first season at Cincy. How do we, as Vol fans, rationalize this in the Southeastern Conference?

I don't know what to expect this year, but Butch doeas have a body of evidence that states don't expect much in the first year.

Thoughts?
Posted via VolNation Mobile
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My the things we ponder while having a bowel movement

:snoring:
 
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#38
#38
butchna said:
He can blow a whistle...among other things
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If he was our coach for the last three years I bet we win atleast 8 more games.

2012
Florida
Georgia
South Carolina
Missouri
Mississippi St.

2011
Kentucky
South Carolina

2010
North Carolina
 
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#39
#39
Sandman 423 said:
If he was our coach for the last three years I bet we win atleast 8 more games.

2012
Florida
Georgia
South Carolina
Missouri
Mississippi St.

2011
Kentucky
South Carolina

2010
North Carolina
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Too bad Uncle Rico and Kip's time machine doesn't freaking work!
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#40
#40
JAllen18 said:
"Thoughts? "

It's always tough for a team to adjust to a new coaching scheme in its first year.
New offense, New Defense. You don't have the right players to fit your scheme.

I look at a coaches second year, where Coach Jones went 10–3 in 2011, including a Big East championship.
That tells me all I need to know.

Another example would be Saban at Bama.
6-6 first year.
2nd year 12-0.
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One of those 6 wins was against our Orange, it would be nice if Butch could repay the favor.
 
#41
#41
I don't know how our season will unfold, but I'm excited that we finally have a very good coach in place. I do believe we'll see a difference in the execution and hard play. Will that add up on the wins column yet is hard to say. The future looks much brighter in these orange colored glasses over the past though.
 
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#43
#43
I don't expect the coach to go 4-8 here his first year. However, I seem to recall that Saban's first year at Bama was less than memorable, with a loss to a Louisiana some direction.
 
#47
#47
6-6 is the expectation this year, with a reasonable shot at 7 or maybe 8 wins. (UGA and SCAR in Neyland this season)
If we can just stomach one more mediocre year I expect us to be back competing for SEC titles.
 
#50
#50
All I want is a bowl game. I don't care which one it is, I just want Tennessee in one
 
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