Jones at Cincy...

#51
#51
Sandman 423 said:
If he was our coach for the last three years I bet we win atleast 8 more games.

2012
Florida
Georgia
South Carolina
Missouri
Mississippi St.

2011
Kentucky
South Carolina

2010
North Carolina
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what year was the 13 man/goalline stand fail vs LSU?? probably would've won that too.
 
#52
#52
Volmorning said:
OK, I, for one, am happy with what Jones has accomplished in the short time he has been here. However, a point that is missed by Volnatoin, repeatedly, is that he went 4-8 his first season at Cincy. How do we, as Vol fans, rationalize this in the Southeastern Conference?

I don't know what to expect this year, but Butch doeas have a body of evidence that states don't expect much in the first year.

Thoughts?
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Well see the difference is that now CBJ is starting with a team that went 5-7 last year, while going 4-8 his first year at Cincy he started with a team that had gone 12-1 the year before and .......... Oh, wait
 
#54
#54
tm3 said:
Well see the difference is that now CBJ is starting with a team that went 5-7 last year, while going 4-8 his first year at Cincy he started with a team that had gone 12-1 the year before and .......... Oh, wait
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Everybody on the 12-1 team graduated. Butch got stuck with a team that didn't buy in at first. That is the only way we go 4-8. I think our team is buying in. The fact that the players are buying in makes a huge different.
 
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#55
#55
Volmorning said:
OK, I, for one, am happy with what Jones has accomplished in the short time he has been here. However, a point that is missed by Volnatoin, repeatedly, is that he went 4-8 his first season at Cincy. How do we, as Vol fans, rationalize this in the Southeastern Conference?

I don't know what to expect this year, but Butch doeas have a body of evidence that states don't expect much in the first year.

Thoughts?
Posted via VolNation Mobile
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So, does Nick Saban...next question?
 
#57
#57
daj2576 said:
That 4-8 season at Cincy is exactly what his talent predicted he should have won. Every other year, he wins more games than his talent would predict.

Do not think that his 4 win season at Cincy is somehow an under-performance. It is, in fact, status-quo.

To summarize: talent averages can be used to predict the outcome of football games by simply averaging four years of recruiting numbers, doing that for each team, and creating an ordered list. If you see a matchup between two teams and pick the team with the higher average to win, you will be correct 60-70% of the time when looking at seasonal outcomes.

If you do that for Jones tenure at Cincy, here is what you will discover:

2010: Talent Predicted wins: 4; Actual Wins: 4
2011: Talent Predicted wins: 6; Actual Wins: 10
2012: Talent Predicted wins: 7; Actual Wins: 9 (remember he wasn't coaching for the 10th win against Duke in the bowl game).

So, Jones averages winning 2 games a season more than his predictions overall at Cincy. If you discount the first year where he was status quo, that number jumps to an average of +3 games a year during his final two seasons.

Also it is interesting to note how Jones improved the recruiting during his tenure. If you look at the four year talent averages beginning in 2010 (largely Kelly's recruits) Cincy averaged 68.75, in 2011 Cincy averaged 58.75 (Jones raised the talent average ten spots in one year), then in 2012 Cincy again increased to a four year trailing average of 54.5.

If Jones can only match his output of the 2010 season and win only as many games as his talent would predict in 2013, UT will go 7-5.

EDIT: Let me take it a step further.

In 2010 Jones beat both Louisville and Rutgers when he should have lost, and lost to Syracuse and Uconn, who he should have beaten. The end result is still a talent predicted 4 win season.

In 2011 Jones beat NCSU, Louisville, South Florida, and Pittsburgh who all had better talent. He did not lose to any team that he should have beaten. The end result is a talent plus 4 win season.

In 2012 Jones beat Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech and South Florida who had better talent but lost to Toledo who didn't. The end result is a talent plus 2 win season.

The key to remember is that as Jones 4 year trailing recruiting average gets better, his ability to have seasons with huge talent plus games goes down. In other words, if you recruit like Alabama, Saban will never be a talent +X games coach because he out recruits everyone.
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How this doesn't have more likes I'll never know. This post is awesome!
 
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#59
#59
JAllen18 said:
"Thoughts? "

It's always tough for a team to adjust to a new coaching scheme in its first year.
New offense, New Defense. You don't have the right players to fit your scheme.

I look at a coaches second year, where Coach Jones went 10–3 in 2011, including a Big East championship.
That tells me all I need to know.

Another example would be Saban at Bama.
6-6 first year.
2nd year 12-0.
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I would be happy with similar results.:good!:
 
#61
#61
iluvsmesumdooley said:
Not true.
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Really? It's not far from the truth, then. CBJ was left a depleted roster at Cincy when Kelly left.

Throughout my postmortum on the Bowl-less campaign of 2010 a couple of themes have begun to make their presence know. First among them is the stunning lack of general depth on the roster, while this deficit is visible at all positions, it is along the lines, both offensive and defensive where this issue came to bear most emphatically.
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The biggest issue with the defensive line last year, in my opinion at least, was a catastrophic lack of depth, and that was something that became apparent pretty early in the season. For most of the season the defensive line rotation was cripplingly short.
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There is no single reason for this, there are some players who looked promising early in their careers who never quite panned out, like Trigg, there are others who seemed to have bright futures that left the team, like Ricky Harris but once you go through the signing lists from the last couple of years the biggest reason was the recruiting of Brian Kelly. Kelly reached on a lot of guys in his three recruiting classes particularly along the defensive line.
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Grading The Defensive Line - Down The Drive

:hi:
 
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#62
#62
Were going to suck this year. It has less to do with him and more to do with our returning players
 
#63
#63
golfballs said:
Were going to suck this year. It has less to do with him and more to do with our returning players
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I believe VN should buckle in for a bumpy ride this season, then expect continued improvement. We're still in the tunnel, but we're moving toward the light at the end.

I predict a bowl game this year, competitive with everyone the next.
 
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#66
#66
Orange_Crush said:
I believe VN should buckle in for a bumpy ride this season, then expect continued improvement. We're still in the tunnel, but we're moving toward the light at the end.

I predict a bowl game this year, competitive with everyone the next.
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Would that be the "relentless pursuit of continuous improvement?" :crazy:
 
#67
#67
Burger said:
That 12-1 Cincy team was senior loaded. I remember watching them.
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They lost some seniors. And some key players. But, they also kept some key players. And all of the players were not seniors.

Your claim that "everyone on the 12-1 team graduated" is wrong. Way wrong.
 
#68
#68
Boca Vol said:
Would that be the "relentless pursuit of continuous improvement?" :crazy:
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It would be my expectation that if recruiting continues as it is, and those recruits are coached well, the team will improve from year to year. It's not a complex formula.
 
#71
#71
Orange_Crush said:
I apologize for the response. (I sometimes struggle to see the humor on VN, considering the many factions of vitriol. lol)

Good on you sir. :hi:
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No worries. I actually your wording was a joke...a play on a Dooleyism. :loco:
 
#73
#73
Boca Vol said:
Thoughts?

That is very poorly thought out argument. Each situation is different. You can't compare what he did in 2010 at Cincy for what he may or will do at UT in 2013.
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That's not an arguement he is asking us a question and asking for people's opinion.

But, knowing you......you will try to twist it some way to prove it was an arguement, because you are never wrong.
 
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#75
#75
Boca Vol said:
One of the definitions of argument is "a process of reasoning."

The OP is using Butch Jones' 1st year record at Cincy as reasoning for UT fans to not expect much in the first year.

What else you got, Einstein!
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Vol4life25 said:
That's not an arguement he is asking us a question and asking for people's opinion.

But, knowing you......you will try to twist it some way to prove it was an arguement, because you are never wrong.
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Go ahead and get in the dipsh%t line.
 
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