Whether he is the guy or not. I think it's not necessarily fair to say he's regressed each year. Has he been undefeated every season? No, but I found a look at the stats and circumstances interesting.
In 2018, the team returned their veteran starting QB, McKenzie Milton. They finished the regular season undefeated, and Milton suffered that horrendous knee injury in the final game.
2018 offensive numbers: 3347 yards passing and 29 touchdowns; 3459 rushing yards and 42 touchdowns.
2019 saw Heupel starting a true freshman quarterback, Gabriel. They finish the year 10-3. The offense hums again.
2019 offensive numbers: 4117 passing yards for 36 touchdowns; 2923 rushing yards for 34 touchdowns.
In 2020, the team had ten players opt out prior to the season beginning, including multiple starters. The offense in 10 games put up the following numbers: 3574 passing yards and 32 touchdowns; 2107 rushing yards and 23 touchdowns.
So, in three seasons, Heupel's offense put up 196 touchdowns. By comparison, we have scored 88 touchdowns in the past three years.
Do they play in a lesser conference? Yes. Did they have a disappointing 2020? Yes. Would I rather have some other candidates? Also yes.
Is this the worst possible hire? I don't think so. That doesn't mean it's good enough, but it may be as good as we can do.