If you go 12-1 in your first season and your only loss is a bowl game to LSU the year before they win the Natty, it's a bit hard not to suffer a little decline.
His down year, a Covid-season, UCF was 6-3 in the regular season w/losses to a pretty good Tulsa team, #7 Cincinnati (by 3) and at Memphis (by 1). They lost the bowl game to #13 BYU and Zach Wilson, who Kiper has as the second QB off the board at #4 in his current mock draft.
The 23 points by UCF is their lowest total in three years under Heupel and only the second time in his three season at UCF that his team didn't score at least 31 points.