Kelvin Taylor > Derrick Henry...and other bold NFL Draft predictions

#152
#152
bamawriter said:
D4H waa easily proven wrong?

I find that hard to disbelieve.
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Disproven how? I guess its time for me to educate you once again. Go back and watch the video CLOSELY.

  • With regard to his first sack, Bosa is completely stonewalled by the Raiders offensive tackle. He is effectively taken out of the play. His teammates collapse the pocket and force Derek Carr to scramble right into him for a cheap sack. This was not a play made by him. It was a play made by his teammates. He was simply at the right place at the right time and got a cheap sack.

  • With regard to his second sack, Bosa is effectively pushed to the outside by the Raiders offensive tackle causing his speed rush to fail. Once again another teammate is the one that causes Derek Carr to scramble and this player misses what should have been an easy sack. Joey Bosa gets the sloppy seconds. This was another cheap sack that was created by another teammate.

  • With regard to his third sack, Bosa effectively converts speed to power for a nice sack of Matt Ryan. This is his first legitimate sack of the season.

  • With regard to his fourth sack, it looks like the Falcons were trying to set up a screen pass to Devonta Freeman. You can tell that by how easily the tackle let Bosa get by him and how the guards were out past the line of scrimmage trying to clear room for Freeman. Unfortunately for the Falcons, the Chargers linebacker sniffed out the screen taking Freeman out of the play. Once the play broke down Matt Ryan tried to scramble but he was caught by Bosa. This was not really a play made by Bosa. This was a busted play by the Falcons.

  • With regard to his fifth sack, Bosa does a great spin move on the Texans offensive tackle before taking Brock Osweiler to the ground. Great play. This is his second legitimate sack of the season.

  • With regard to his sixth sack, the Chargers did a stunt where they made Bosa rush inside while the defensive tackle tried to rush outside. The Buccaneers offensive lineman miscommunicated with each other and ended up double teaming the tackle while leaving Bosa wide open down the middle of the field for an easy sack in which he was untouched. Once again another broken play and mistake by the offense gives Joey Bosa an easy sack. Almost any other player on the Chargers would have made the same play.

  • With regard to his seventh sack, Bosa makes a great power rush and then a rip move to throw the offensive tackle to the side. He then does a great job taking down Cam Newton. This is his third legitimate sack of the season and one of his very best.

  • With regard to his eight sack, Bosa is once again completely stonewalled by the Raiders offensive tackle. For some reason the Raiders tackle stops playing after Derek Carr begins to scramble. Joey Bosa once again gets another cheap sack because of an error by the offensive lineman.

  • With regard to his ninth sack, another teammate causes RG3 to scramble to his right where Bosa is lined up. Joey Bosa does a good job tracking down a running RG3 before he can turn the corner and get past the line of scrimmage for another cheap sack. I personally don’t think plays like this should count as sacks at all. When its obvious the QB is just trying to run, it should just be counted as a tackle.

  • With regard to his tenth sack, Bosa does a great swim move on the Browns right tackle getting a great sack on RG3. This is his fourth legitimate sack of the season.

  • With regard to his final sack, Bosa does a great job power rushing the Chiefs left tackle right into the QB then doing a great spin move to sack Alex Smith. This was his fifth legitimate sack of the season and IMO his very best.

So that gives Joey Bosa only 5 legitimate sacks last year in which he created the sack opportunity. 3 of the sacks credited to him were cheap sacks in which he is initially out of the play completely only to have the QB scramble right to him because another player caused him to run or to have another teammate miss a sure sack and him getting the sloppy seconds. 2 of the sacks credited to him came from complete breakdowns by the offensive line either because there was a designed screen pass that failed or a failure in communication by the offensive lineman on a stunt by the defensive line. Those 2 sacks were wide open sacks that almost anyone could make. Bosa was once again just lucky to be at the right place at the right time. And finally he had one sack against the Browns in which RG3 is clearly scrambling after another teammate flushed him out of the pocket and Bosa catches him right before RG3 is able to turn the corner and cross the line of scrimmage. Plays like that are not legitimate sacks in my book. They are good open field tackles of a playing trying to run.

So if you want a guy who is physically limited by will try hard and get a bunch of sloppy sacks because of others mistakes then Joey Bosa is your guy. But if you want a truly dominant pass rusher who creates plays for himself and others rather than just benefited on others mistakes then Bosa is definitely not your guy. I personally prefer the latter. I don't want a guy who tries hard and gets lucky. I want a guy who is physically gifted and makes dominant plays that change games.

Joey Bosa is not very good. PERIOD.
 
#153
#153
zjcvols said:
Watched 10+ Joey Bosa sacks from last year. Seven sacks where he clearly beat his man and got to the QB.
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Check my last post. I break down everyone of his sacks.

He only had 5 legitimate sacks where he beat his man.

2 of his sacks came from breakdowns by the offensive line either on a failed screen or a failing to pick up Bosa on a stunt.

3 of his sacks came on plays where the QB scrambled right to him because others players were making the play.

And finally he got that one sack on RG3, where RG3 is clearly running because another teammate flushed him outta the pocket. If Bosa made that exact play on a WR screen or RB, it would just be a tackle not a sack. So I don't count that play as even a sack. It was just a tackle on a runner.
 
#154
#154
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
Check my last post. I break down everyone of his sacks.

He only had 5 legitimate sacks where he beat his man.

2 of his sacks came from breakdowns by the offensive line either on a failed screen or a failing to pick up Bosa on a stunt.

3 of his sacks came on plays where the QB scrambled right to him because others players were making the play.

And finally he got that one sack on RG3, where RG3 is clearly running because another teammate flushed him outta the pocket. If Bosa made that exact play on a WR screen or RB, it would just be a tackle not a sack. So I don't count that play as even a sack. It was just a tackle on a runner.
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Well the NFL does dips***.
 
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#157
#157
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
Check my last post. I break down everyone of his sacks.

He only had 5 legitimate sacks where he beat his man.

2 of his sacks came from breakdowns by the offensive line either on a failed screen or a failing to pick up Bosa on a stunt.

3 of his sacks came on plays where the QB scrambled right to him because others players were making the play.

And finally he got that one sack on RG3, where RG3 is clearly running because another teammate flushed him outta the pocket. If Bosa made that exact play on a WR screen or RB, it would just be a tackle not a sack. So I don't count that play as even a sack. It was just a tackle on a runner.
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Nobody gives a s*** what you consider a sack.
 
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#158
#158
What's wrong with coverage sacks? You guys might be shocked that most pass rushers that have over 10 sacks accumulate a lot of coverage sacks.
 
#159
#159
Yankee_Vol said:
Well the NFL does dips***.
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That's why I evaluate players based on film than stats. Chasing down a running QB after your teammate made the play by causing him to scramble doesn't tell me anything about your pass rushing skills even if the NFL credits you for a sack.

That is why I still maintain Bosa will he a bust. He doesn't make dominant plays. He just gets lucky by benefitting from plays others make or by the opponents mistakes.
 
#160
#160
Burger said:
What's wrong with coverage sacks? You guys might be shocked that most pass rushers that have over 10 sacks accumulate a lot of coverage sacks.
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Coverage sacks don't tell me anything about your pass rush skills. It just tells me you got rewarded for persistence.

That is why I evaluate based on film not the stat sheet. As they say, film don't lie. Unlike the stat which typically does.
 
#161
#161
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
That is why I evaluate based on film not the stat sheet. As they say, film don't lie. Unlike the stat which typically does.
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You should use this as your go-to justification when your predictions fall apart:

"The stats may show that I'm awful at making predictions, but the stats lie."
 
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#162
#162
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
Coverage sacks don't tell me anything about your pass rush skills. It just tells me you got rewarded for persistence.

That is why I evaluate based on film not the stat sheet. As they say, film don't lie. Unlike the stat which typically does.
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The point is that almost every DE with over 10 sacks in a season has plenty of coverage sacks. Motor is very important when it comes to Defensive Line. You should know that being the almighty D4H.
 
#163
#163
99gator said:
Let me say as a Gators' fan in total candor, Kelvin Taylor is not going to be a quality NFL running back.

He does a lot of things fairly well, but he does nothing exceptionally well.

He's an average, at best, blocker. He's not small, but he's not big. He's not slow, but he's not fast. He has some elusiveness, but by and large, he doesn't make tacklers miss.

He's not great as a runner, as a pass catcher, as a blocker, or down on the goal line.

He's a guy.
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I don't claim to be an expert, but was correct about this one.
 
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#164
#164
Burger said:
The point is that almost every DE with over 10 sacks in a season has plenty of coverage sacks. Motor is very important when it comes to Defensive Line. You should know that being the almighty D4H.
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He has no argument here and he knows it. There are 16 players in the NFL that got double digit sacks last year. He's one of them. He was a rookie. He didn't play in 4 games. There isn't a teammate that helped him get that number as the Charger d-line leaves a lot to be desired.

He was an impact rookie. It's not in dispute
 
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#165
#165
99gator said:
He has no argument here and he knows it. There are 16 players in the NFL that got double digit sacks last year. He's one of them. He was a rookie. He didn't play in 4 games. There isn't a teammate that helped him get that number as the Charger d-line leaves a lot to be desired.

He was an impact rookie. It's not in dispute
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This. A small percentage of actual sacks are a player blowing past a lineman with their initial move. Von Miller is an exception.
 
#167
#167
D4H bringing the absurd as per usual. This latest example with sacks is tantamount to arguing TD's by a RB don't count if he didn't make somebody miss/break a tackle or catches by a WR don't count if he was wide open because of a busted coverage or the DB fell down. It's hilariously stupid. It'd almost be as useful to argue "Joey Bosa is a fiction as no such person actually exists.".

The Henry/Taylor discussion is even funnier. At this point* the bar for being better than Taylor is literally making an active roster. That's it.

*And there is no other point. Speculation /conjecture is just that and worth not one jot more than the weight that carries. (Which in D4H's case is on the poor side of even that low bar) There is empirical data available for directly addressing a number of predictions. For instance when citing Bosa's success or Taylor's failure it's in the books, done, right there in real time. There's no such thing as being " right" in the future since one can only be right once something has (or failed to) happen. I've never seen anyone forced to spend so much time in the future to avoid failure in the present.
 
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#169
#169
99gator said:
He has no argument here and he knows it. There are 16 players in the NFL that got double digit sacks last year. He's one of them. He was a rookie. He didn't play in 4 games. There isn't a teammate that helped him get that number as the Charger d-line leaves a lot to be desired.

He was an impact rookie. It's not in dispute
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So was RG3. Even Trent Richardson had a decent rookie year. Matt Kahlil made the pro bowl.

All 3 are now considered busts and haven't had seasons as good as that lucky rookie year.

That is how Joey Bosa's career will go. He had a lucky rookie year. He will not have much of an impact going forward. He will be more like Matt Kahlil or other guys who regress after their rookie year than guys like JJ Watt and Kahlil Mack who to on to become All-Pros.
 
#170
#170
hndog609 said:
D4H bringing the absurd as per usual. This latest example with sacks is tantamount to arguing TD's by a RB don't count if he didn't make somebody miss/break a tackle or catches by a WR don't count if he was wide open because of a busted coverage or the DB fell down. It's hilariously stupid. It'd almost be as useful to argue "Joey Bosa is a fiction as no such person actually exists.".

The Henry/Taylor discussion is even funnier. At this point* the bar for being better than Taylor is literally making an active roster. That's it.

*And there is no other point. Speculation /conjecture is just that and worth not one jot more than the weight that carries. (Which in D4H's case is on the poor side of even that low bar) There is empirical data available for directly addressing a number of predictions. For instance when citing Bosa's success or Taylor's failure it's in the books, done, right there in real time. There's no such thing as being " right" in the future since one can only be right once something has (or failed to) happen. I've never seen anyone forced to spend so much time in the future to avoid failure in the present.
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If Bosa keeps getting 10+ sacks year in year out then I will stop calling him lucky. I said his year was lucky last year because we are only one season into his career and nothing he did on film impressed me. Many rookies have had great rookie years only to flame out.

My position on Kelvin Taylor is that he will be better than Derrick Henry once he gets a chance. There are many NFL players who get cut from team to team and then finally they land in the right spot and blow up. I have a feeling Kelvin has that happen for him soon. Who knows? It just might be with Kansas City who just picked him up this month.
 
#172
#172
I continue to be amazed at some folks need to respond to this dufus, prove him wrong and rub his nose in it.. He's thrives on attention, good or bad.

Ignore him and he goes away...
 
#173
#173
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
My position on Kelvin Taylor is that he will be better than Derrick Henry once he gets a chance. There are many NFL players who get cut from team to team and then finally they land in the right spot and blow up. I have a feeling Kelvin has that happen for him soon. Who knows? It just might be with Kansas City who just picked him up this month.
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This is hilarious.
 
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#175
#175
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
James Harrison was waived 2 or 3 times by the Steelers before becoming an All-Pro.

Injuries happen. Once Kelvin gets a shot somewhere I'm still confident he will be better than Derrick Henry.
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You just predicted that he has a "good chance to start" for a team that waived him 2 weeks ago. Do you understand the flaw in that prediction? Do you want to stand by it?
 
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