Lady Vols (6 seed) Portland Regional

#251
#251
Volstylexx said:
We don’t look like a 7 seed (look better to the eye test), and our metrics SOS say we are better than a 7 seed. With that said our NET says we are a 8 seed, and our record suggests we are a 8/9 seed. Will be interesting to see which set of criteria the committee chooses to use. I still personally think we get seeded no higher than a 7 because they have the SEC as being incredibly weak this year. If the committee has Mississippi State as first four out, and Auburn/Vandy in play in games, I think they punish us also.
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There ya go. Being reasonable again. 😉

Steady as she goes…
 
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#252
#252
Volstylexx said:
We don’t look like a 7 seed (look better to the eye test), and our metrics SOS say we are better than a 7 seed. With that said our NET says we are a 8 seed, and our record suggests we are a 8/9 seed. Will be interesting to see which set of criteria the committee chooses to use. I still personally think we get seeded no higher than a 7 because they have the SEC as being incredibly weak this year. If the committee has Mississippi State as first four out, and Auburn/Vandy in play in games, I think they punish us also.
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Interested to see how the committee weighs the 4-4 record in the 8-game stretch without Rickea, particularly when the final margin in 3 of the 4 losses was well within her season scoring average. Some committees have placed less value on game that occurred without a superstar player. We'll see. What would the resume and NET be with wins over Notre Dame and MTSU? Lost to ND by 5 and they are a projected 3 seed and the ACC Champion. MTSU is a projected 19 seed and went undefeated in CUSA by outscoring every conference opponent by double digits, with a margin of right at 20 ppg.
 
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#253
#253
We aren’t getting a 6 seed going 11-7 in a conference with only two ranked teams, neither of whom we beat despite getting 4 tries.

Frankly we ought to count ourselves lucky if we get a 7. Our resume is 8 seed worthy at best.
 
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#254
#254
SGMVols said:
We aren’t getting a 6 seed going 11-7 in a conference with only two ranked teams, neither of whom we beat despite getting 4 tries.

Frankly we ought to count ourselves lucky if we get a 7. Our resume is 8 seed worthy at best.
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While I agree that we probably are at best a 7, we went 10-6 in conference not 11-7.
 
#257
#257
DeerPark12 said:
Interested to see how the committee weighs the 4-4 record in the 8-game stretch without Rickea, particularly when the final margin in 3 of the 4 losses was well within her season scoring average. Some committees have placed less value on game that occurred without a superstar player. We'll see. What would the resume and NET be with wins over Notre Dame and MTSU? Lost to ND by 5 and they are a projected 3 seed and the ACC Champion. MTSU is a projected 19 seed and went undefeated in CUSA by outscoring every conference opponent by double digits, with a margin of right at 20 ppg.
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There's danger in doing the "what if" scenario. ND was without Citron. TAMU beat Tennessee handily with Endyia Rogers playing, so maybe you discount the later loss in the rematch without her. All teams deal with injuries, so this is just cherry picking in Tennessee's favor.

3 of the 4 losses without Rickea were to ND, Indiana and OSU. There's still a very good chance that Tennessee would have lost those games even with Rickea. They lost to FSU before her injury, and then to Ole Miss, TAMU and Bama after she returned. So the argument that their record would have been better with her is really a mixed bag because there's nothing to suggest that would have been the case.
 
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#258
#258
Amb3096 said:
3 of the 4 losses without Rickea were to ND, Indiana and OSU. There's still a very good chance that Tennessee would have lost those games even with Rickea. They lost to FSU before her injury, and then to Ole Miss, TAMU and Bama after she returned. So the argument that their record would have been better with her is really a mixed bag because there's nothing to suggest that would have been the case.
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Nah, we definitely beat ND and MTSU w Rickea. Whoever ND was without that particular night, we giftwrapped that game and bowed down and handed it to them. No way Rickea doesn't do enough to stop that happening. And MTSU, I don't even need to explain.

I don't know how close they look into losses, but FSU was 1 point on a missed last sec shot.

I think just the eye test, esp how she's played the last month, will tell them we would have been much better with Rickea, the disasters at TAM and ALA not withstanding.
 
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#259
#259
glv98 said:
Nah, we definitely beat ND and MTSU w Rickea. Whoever ND was without that particular night, we giftwrapped that game and bowed down and handed it to them. No way Rickea doesn't do enough to stop that happening. And MTSU, I don't even need to explain.

I don't know how close they look into losses, but FSU was 1 point on a missed last sec shot.

I think just the eye test, esp how she's played the last month, will tell them we would have been much better with Rickea, the disasters at TAM and ALA not withstanding.
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Eye test isn't what leads to seeding though. Who's to say that ND wouldn't have been added to the games that Rickea was off, like TAMU or Bama? If they head beaten those two teams, I could see the committee giving them the benefit of a doubt, but I'd be surprised if they were seeded higher than a 7.
 
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#260
#260
glv98 said:
Nah, we definitely beat ND and MTSU w Rickea. Whoever ND was without that particular night, we giftwrapped that game and bowed down and handed it to them. No way Rickea doesn't do enough to stop that happening. And MTSU, I don't even need to explain.

I don't know how close they look into losses, but FSU was 1 point on a missed last sec shot.

I think just the eye test, esp how she's played the last month, will tell them we would have been much better with Rickea, the disasters at TAM and ALA not withstanding.
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If we can just get the seven I am ok with it. I don't want to drop to 8 or 9 just get me as high as seven.
 
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#261
#261
Amb3096 said:
Eye test isn't what leads to seeding though. Who's to say that ND wouldn't have been added to the games that Rickea was off, like TAMU or Bama? If they head beaten those two teams, I could see the committee giving them the benefit of a doubt, but I'd be surprised if they were seeded higher than a 7.
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Actually, while TAM and ALA were horrid games for Rickea, and she may have been sick at TAM, a horrid game for her is different fm most others. At TAM she still had 10 pts but it was on 5-15 shooting. At Ala she had 13 pts on 6-16 shooting. So still double figures. Would very easily have had the 8 or 10 pts needed to beat ND. Only non double fig game she's had was when limited to 17 mins by foul trouble against KY the other day.

Another common thread in both those games is that Jewel was also way off, just 1-9 against Alabama. Both having an off shooting night is our absolute krytonite.
 
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#262
#262
Volfan2012 said:
If we can just get the seven I am ok with it. I don't want to drop to 8 or 9 just get me as high as seven.
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Looking at the NET, we’re currently 30th. I know NET isn’t the end all and be all, but you’d have to start looking at the teams directly in front and behind us for a 7. Move in front of two teams, and we should be a 7 seed. Washington State is 29th with a worse record and probably a worse schedule. Oklahoma is 28th, and we beat them without Rickea, but are they rewarded for their Big 12 Championship? I think we should be in front of Penn State who is 27th. Nebraska is 28th, but do they get rewarded for making the Big Ten Championship and taking Iowa to OT over us? Then it depends on how much they like the record of 25th UNLV over their schedule.

Teams behind us in NET that might have a chance to be seeded higher than us are Ole Miss at 36 and maaaybe Syracuse and Florida State. Ole Miss did beat us head to head and finished higher than us in the SEC, so I could see the case for moving them in front of us. Florida State beat us head to head, finished tied for 5th in a stronger conference by metrics, and made their semifinals before being blown out. Their NET is 14 lower than ours though. Syracuse probably has the least likely chance of bypassing us even though they finished tied for 2nd in the ACC because lower net of 43 and knocked out in tourney semis.
 
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#263
#263
The difference btw high 7 and low 6 is probably not much and our chances will be determined by who we match up with best. We'll probably get the 6 seed, but actually match up best w the #2 seed we would have drawn as a 7. Our luck.

I realize I'm blowing past the first round. Sure didn't like the one that had us playing Maryland.
 
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#264
#264
glv98 said:
The difference btw high 7 and low 6 is probably not much and our chances will be determined by who we match up with best. We'll probably get the 6 seed, but actually match up best w the #2 seed we would have drawn as a 7. Our luck.

I realize I'm blowing past the first round. Sure didn't like the one that had us playing Maryland.
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Yeah, you’d also have to factor in geography and conference too. The good thing is that only 2 SEC teams will be a 3 seed or higher, so that gives us 10 other sites we could go to as seeds 6-8. The PAC12 having a bunch of teams hosting: Stanford, USC, and UCLA, (maybe Oregon State?) will probably have the biggest impact on where we go, as I don’t see them sending us that far away. That leaves teams like Texas, Ohio State, Iowa, UConn, NC State, and ND as our most likely landing spots.
 
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#265
#265
glv98 said:
The difference btw high 7 and low 6 is probably not much and our chances will be determined by who we match up with best. We'll probably get the 6 seed, but actually match up best w the #2 seed we would have drawn as a 7. Our luck.

I realize I'm blowing past the first round. Sure didn't like the one that had us playing Maryland.
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Just keep us regional 😩 idc the seed I wanna go
 
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#266
#266
Amb3096 said:
Eye test isn't what leads to seeding though. Who's to say that ND wouldn't have been added to the games that Rickea was off, like TAMU or Bama? If they head beaten those two teams, I could see the committee giving them the benefit of a doubt, but I'd be surprised if they were seeded higher than a 7.
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There’s certainly a danger in playing the “what if” game, but they definitely play it in the committee room. They also do a lot of “eye test.” Especially when trying to make certain matchups happen.
 
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#268
#268
DeerPark12 said:
There’s certainly a danger in playing the “what if” game, but they definitely play it in the committee room. They also do a lot of “eye test.” Especially when trying to make certain matchups happen.
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I think it's understandable to play it if there are data points that suggest it might be warranted. In this case, the FSU, TAMU, Ole Miss and Alabama losses don't support the idea that Tennessee would have won those games they lost (except likely the MTSU game) had she been available.

As far as manipulating to make certain matchups, I can see that happening. But it probably won't be to Tennessee's advantage because those matchups are more interesting with the #2 seeds, not the #3 seeds.
 
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#269
#269
DeerPark12 said:
There’s certainly a danger in playing the “what if” game, but they definitely play it in the committee room. They also do a lot of “eye test.” Especially when trying to make certain matchups happen.
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Except for that stupefying last 1.1 seconds of our last game, I feel like the Lady Vols had been scoring a little higher lately on most peoples' eye tests. I just hope they won't be punished anymore for that last play. They had been looking so much better.
 
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#275
#275
It's Selection Sunday! Here's where the various Bracketologies have us:

- ESPN: 7-seed vs. Maryland, with Texas as the 2-seed, in the Portland regional
- Her Hoops Stats: 8-seed vs. Princeton, with Iowa as the 1-seed, in the Albany regional
- CBS: 9-seed (only lists seeds without matchups)
- College Sports Madness: 8-seed vs. Princeton, with Iowa as the 1-seed (doesn't assign regionals)
- Real Time RPI: 5-seed vs. Green Bay, with Notre Dame as the 4-seed, in the Albany regional
- Sporting News: 7-seed (only lists seeds without matchups)
- The Athletic: 8-seed vs. North Carolina, with Iowa as the 1-seed, in the Albany regional
 
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