Lady Vols Softball Team Game Thread week 11

[armchair]

I can't believe texas a&m is ahead of us in RPI. I call BS. This is the problem with RPI--it is mathematical but oftentimes does not comport with results and the basic eye test. The aggies had the easiest schedule in the SEC this year. Did not play bama, florida or auburn! Played us and got beat twice. They did beat michigan and arizona state early in the year--but big whoop. Michigan is not even in the top 20, I don't think.

I hope we can win our first game and play auburn. I'd like a shot at that team. Auburn is another team who's very high ranking all year perplexes me. We've played a tougher SEC schedule; we each beat OU and florida (once). We've pretty much had the same year--I think they've got one more win (or is it won fewer loss) than we do. In the event, they've basically been a top 5 lock all year while we've had to claw our way into the top 10. It is annoying.

 

[StrangeVol]

I can't believe texas a&m is ahead of us in RPI. I call BS. This is the problem with RPI--it is mathematical but oftentimes does not comport with results and the basic eye test. The aggies had the easiest schedule in the SEC this year. Did not play bama, florida or auburn! Played us and got beat twice. They did beat michigan and arizona state early in the year--but big whoop. Michigan is not even in the top 20, I don't think.

I hope we can win our first game and play auburn. I'd like a shot at that team. Auburn is another team who's very high ranking all year perplexes me. We've played a tougher SEC schedule; we each beat OU and florida (once). We've pretty much had the same year--I think they've got one more win (or is it won fewer loss) than we do. In the event, they've basically been a top 5 lock all year while we've had to claw our way into the top 10. It is annoying.

You beat me to it! I'd just logged on to make this post. It IS VERY hard to understand how we can be 9 and them 8 last week, then we go on the road and beat them 2 out of three and SOMEHOW we remain 9th in RPI and they remain 8th. Really hard to swallow that. :realmad::realmad::realmad:

 

[VolGee4]

Have not seen the updated ones but I don't even know how TAM rpi is so great anyway. We should have jumped them but if and when we can meet them in the tourney I think we win at home. Fridays game just got away from us so early and the freshman starting (how) over Matty and her not sharp but nervous killed us. However we looked like krap at the plate and that had nothing to do with pitching. Get to the finals and maybe semis and we should be a top 8 seed. JMHO as always!!:shaking2:

It's going to be interesting because A&M avoided playing Alabama, Auburn, Florida, and LSU in SEC play. However, they will ride the success in the Mary Nutter Classic where they didn't lose by beating FSU, ASU, BYU, and Michigan- all top 25 teams. By my count, A&M has 14 top 25 RPI wins.

We played a very tough conference schedule and also beat OU, and by my count, we have 16 top 25 RPI wins. I would think taking 2 of 3 against them on the road would be the tiebreaker, also depending on what each team does in the SECT.

 

[armchair]

It's going to be interesting because A&M avoided playing Alabama, Auburn, Florida, and LSU in SEC play. However, they will ride the success in the Mary Nutter Classic where they didn't lose by beating FSU, ASU, BYU, and Michigan- all top 25 teams. By my count, A&M has 14 top 25 RPI wins.

We played a very tough conference schedule and also beat OU, and by my count, we have 16 top 25 RPI wins. I would think taking 2 of 3 against them on the road would be the tiebreaker, also depending on what each team does in the SECT.

A LSU fan on another board pointed to the same thing, essentially. I kind of noticed it but didn't mention it--out of homerism, I suppose! Texas a&M's non-conference schedule was significantly stronger than ours. Still, while they played four solid/good teams in the Marry Nutter, we played (and beat) Oklahoma and lost to a good Utah team. We also played North Carolina, a very respectable team, midway through the season. Where we lose points is playing Middle Tennessee and East Tennessee--those games are pretty much worthless.

There is another reason why a&M is still ahead of us: The softball committee uses an RPI formula that awards more for home wins than the the RPI formulas do in other sports--including basketball and baseball. They've been petitioned by some people to change it but have not done so yet. And texas a&m played a whopping 34 home games this year--and very few neutral site games. We played twice the number of neutral site games they did and fewer home games. But then we picked up a lot of points by winning road games. Who knows--it is complicated.

In the end, I don't think it will matter: I think we'll get a higher seed than a&m as you can't ignore winning of 2 of 3 in their park to end the season. Those wins will prove decisive, I think. We're not really battling a&m for seeding--it's minnesota and washington. Minnesota has had a great year but the big 10 is terrible. I was checking out Washington's schedule: For some reason they played four big 10 teams this year and waxed them all--big margins of victory. And they beat minnesota twice.

 

[Vols4life]

Don't forget the human element guys...the rpi is just one component they use

 

[99gator]

I think a&m and Tennessee can both be national seeds.

The strength of the league has to be accounted for. No one wants to be paired up with an SEC school in a Super.

If strength of the league is taken seriously, A&M, Tennessee, Auburn and Florida are national seeds.

Florida is the #1 overall too if it matters like I should

 

[WVU05UT09]

I think a&m and Tennessee can both be national seeds.

The strength of the league has to be accounted for. No one wants to be paired up with an SEC school in a Super.

If strength of the league is taken seriously, A&M, Tennessee, Auburn and Florida are national seeds.

Florida is the #1 overall too if it matters like I should

Disagree. I think UF, Auburn, FSU, Arizona, Oregon, Washington, and UCLA have a top seed locked up. It's us, Minnesota, OU, A&M for last one. UCLA will probably move into lock territory winning series vs Arizona this weekend.

 

[99gator]

Disagree. I think UF, Auburn, FSU, Arizona, Oregon, Washington, and UCLA have a top seed locked up. It's us, Minnesota, OU, A&M for last one. UCLA will probably move into lock territory winning series vs Arizona this weekend.

Not saying what is going to be the case.

I'm just saying schedule strength should matter. The SEC is on a different planet.

Georgia's RPI ranking is 25 and they are the last place team in the league

Maybe A&M has a weaker case because they avoided the SEC's best in a lot of cases

 

[WVU05UT09]

I think we have greater depth but the top is not as strong as the PAC-12.

As far as A&M goes I think a comment from the men's committee in the basketball tournament is really relevant across multiple sports. In the era of 14 team unbalanced schedules individual schedules rather conference strength matter more.

 

[sccshortstop]

Disagree. I think UF, Auburn, FSU, Arizona, Oregon, Washington, and UCLA have a top seed locked up. It's us, Minnesota, OU, A&M for last one. UCLA will probably move into lock territory winning series vs Arizona this weekend.

In my mind UCLA will not be a lock seed after this weekend past. They won 2 of 3 at home. Barring something freaky happening to us or one of the top 10 teams we will be that 7 or 8 seed. It would not surprise me if OU wins their tourney they get 7 and us 8. If we should win and with a little good luck we can win the tourney we will get the 7 and those mentioned fighting for the final spot. I really don't see any way TAM gets in the top 8 unless they show out in the tourney. If everything goes true to form here is my top 8::
Florida
Arizona
Oregon
FSU
Auburn
Washington
Tennessee
Oklahoma


JMHO as always!

 

[99gator]

IMO (and I know people will think I am just hating on a rival), FSU doesn't deserve a national seed because the ACC is crap.

Now, don't misunderstand. I think they are legit. I know they played a lot of legit OOC competition and held their own.

However, all these other programs played quality OOC competition too, but had to go out and face a real conference schedule. There are 2 other ACC schools in the top 50 in RPI with none in the top 30.

I'm sorry. That is not national seed worthy....,overall record be damned.....and some quality non-conference wins be damned.

They played, by my count, 10 games against legit squads and some of these other schools, particularly SEC schools played 20-30 such games

 

[lvocd]

I can't believe texas a&m is ahead of us in RPI. I call BS. This is the problem with RPI--it is mathematical but oftentimes does not comport with results and the basic eye test. The aggies had the easiest schedule in the SEC this year. Did not play bama, florida or auburn! Played us and got beat twice. They did beat michigan and arizona state early in the year--but big whoop. Michigan is not even in the top 20, I don't think.

I hope we can win our first game and play auburn. I'd like a shot at that team. Auburn is another team who's very high ranking all year perplexes me. We've played a tougher SEC schedule; we each beat OU and florida (once). We've pretty much had the same year--I think they've got one more win (or is it won fewer loss) than we do. In the event, they've basically been a top 5 lock all year while we've had to claw our way into the top 10. It is annoying.

I agree!

 

[lvocd]

I think a&m and Tennessee can both be national seeds.

The strength of the league has to be accounted for. No one wants to be paired up with an SEC school in a Super.

If strength of the league is taken seriously, A&M, Tennessee, Auburn and Florida are national seeds.

Florida is the #1 overall too if it matters like I should

As someone who only follows the league intermittently, how does everyone feel this season's group of teams ranks in terms of strength of the SEC? Have there been seasons that the SEC looked stronger overall going into the SEC Tournament?

 

[VolGee4]

A LSU fan on another board pointed to the same thing, essentially. I kind of noticed it but didn't mention it--out of homerism, I suppose! Texas a&M's non-conference schedule was significantly stronger than ours. Still, while they played four solid/good teams in the Marry Nutter, we played (and beat) Oklahoma and lost to a good Utah team. We also played North Carolina, a very respectable team, midway through the season. Where we lose points is playing Middle Tennessee and East Tennessee--those games are pretty much worthless.

There is another reason why a&M is still ahead of us: The softball committee uses an RPI formula that awards more for home wins than the the RPI formulas do in other sports--including basketball and baseball. They've been petitioned by some people to change it but have not done so yet. And texas a&m played a whopping 34 home games this year--and very few neutral site games. We played twice the number of neutral site games they did and fewer home games. But then we picked up a lot of points by winning road games. Who knows--it is complicated.

In the end, I don't think it will matter: I think we'll get a higher seed than a&m as you can't ignore winning of 2 of 3 in their park to end the season. Those wins will prove decisive, I think. We're not really battling a&m for seeding--it's minnesota and washington. Minnesota has had a great year but the big 10 is terrible. I was checking out Washington's schedule: For some reason they played four big 10 teams this year and waxed them all--big margins of victory. And they beat minnesota twice.

I try not to pretend to know a whole lot about softball. I know the RPI formula in basketball, and I wasn't exactly sure if it was the same. So, unlike in basketball, I guess all wins are created equal. In basketball, a home win is only worth 0.6 while a road win is worth 1.4. In softball, that just gives teams an incentive to schedule a bunch of home games.

It does look like that A&M had some non power 5 OOC games that help them. Louisiana Lafayette, McNeese, and Central Michigan are all top 55 RPI teams along with Ohio State and Oklahoma State. They needed a boost, however, considering their conference schedule.

 

[WVU05UT09]

As someone who only follows the league intermittently, how does everyone feel this season's group of teams ranks in terms of strength of the SEC? Have there been seasons that the SEC looked stronger overall going into the SEC Tournament?

I think the league is good but seeds 5-8 are weaker than prior years--specifically last years.

 

[sccshortstop]

I think the league is good but seeds 5-8 are weaker than prior years--specifically last years.

I will add I think the rest of the league is stronger to the bottom than ever before.

 

[larjoranj]

I'm sure scheduling is a brutal and tedious job, but I'd like to see us cut out as many of the podunk teams as possible and replace them with very winnable games against teams in the top 100. Wouldn't that have to help our RPI? Here are some of our opponents this year and their current RPI:

Georgia Southern 112
Delaware 117
UNC Greensboro (twice) 124
Bradley (twice) 139
Campbell 145
Eastern Kentucky 151
SE Louisiana 158
MTSU 187
Tenn Tech 205
TSU (twice) 267

:crazy: Yikes!! That's 13 games against teams in the 100's and 200's. I know you can't just snap your fingers to make a schedule but imagine if you replaced those wins with teams between 50-100 in the RPI. Would we be sweating this out right now?

 

[sccshortstop]

I'm sure scheduling is a brutal and tedious job, but I'd like to see us cut out as many of the podunk teams as possible and replace them with very winnable games against teams in the top 100. Wouldn't that have to help our RPI? Here are some of our opponents this year and their current RPI:

Georgia Southern 112
Delaware 117
UNC Greensboro (twice) 124
Bradley (twice) 139
Campbell 145
Eastern Kentucky 151
SE Louisiana 158
MTSU 187
Tenn Tech 205
TSU (twice) 267

:crazy: Yikes!! That's 13 games against teams in the 100's and 200's. I know you can't just snap your fingers to make a schedule but imagine if you replaced those wins with teams between 50-100 in the RPI. Would we be sweating this out right now?

Tenn Tech , MTSU, UNCG twice, GS, Bradley was all part of a Tournament in Statesboro and New Mexico so we had no say on those 6 games. We also played Bradley at home however I think our schedules are made in advance and do not know the strength of the teams. JMHO as always!

 

[VolGee4]

I'm sure scheduling is a brutal and tedious job, but I'd like to see us cut out as many of the podunk teams as possible and replace them with very winnable games against teams in the top 100. Wouldn't that have to help our RPI? Here are some of our opponents this year and their current RPI:

Georgia Southern 112
Delaware 117
UNC Greensboro (twice) 124
Bradley (twice) 139
Campbell 145
Eastern Kentucky 151
SE Louisiana 158
MTSU 187
Tenn Tech 205
TSU (twice) 267

:crazy: Yikes!! That's 13 games against teams in the 100's and 200's. I know you can't just snap your fingers to make a schedule but imagine if you replaced those wins with teams between 50-100 in the RPI. Would we be sweating this out right now?

Not quite that easy. The midweek games have to be against local teams because of travel. Teams like Florida can play some tough midweek games because they have good programs close in proximity. Plus, it's not like we are sweating out a bid to the tournament. We are talking about getting in the top 8. I am sure the Weekly's saw the brutal conference schedule and dialed back the OOC schedule just a bit.

 

[Vols4life]

Not quite that easy. The midweek games have to be against local teams because of travel. Teams like Florida can play some tough midweek games because they have good programs close in proximity. Plus, it's not like we are sweating out a bid to the tournament. We are talking about getting in the top 8. I am sure the Weekly's saw the brutal conference schedule and dialed back the OOC schedule just a bit.

Also add in the fact we have a young team...they had no idea what to expect come the season....Tennessee is kinda screwed for mid week games you really on have Georgia Tech, Georgia State, Kennesaw State, Jacksonville State(who was in our tourney) North Carolina, UNCG, East Tn, Tn Tech, Belmont, Lipscomb, Tn State, but without getting on a plane that's basically what you have in a 3 hour radius off the top of my head on school nights

 

[armchair]

We had a good schedule, an extremely tough SEC schedule, but I agree with Larjoranj: we probably scheduled two too many lower RPI opponents. We played some good/decent non-conference teams, starting with oklahoma and utah, and north carolina, but after that we fell off quite a bit. We played two ACC teams--UNC and NC State--and should think about raising that to 3 every year as ACC teams are reasonably close and will have a better RPI than a lot of the non-conf. teams we played this year, even if the ACC is not terribly good. Had we played a, say, Georgia Tech and Virginia instead of eastern kentucky and tennessee tech, we might be top 5 RPI.

RE national seeding, I haven't analyzed OU's season but a lot of people seem to think they do not deserve a top 8 seed. I think Minnesota may be squeezed out as they beat NOBODY in the top 20 all year, I don't think. They played two against Washington and got beat twice; otherwise, I don't think they played anybody good all year. The Big 10 is bad. I'm biased but I think the Vols are in--and should be in. Somebody among Minny, Washington and Ou is not getting in. I think Washington may deserve the nod over the other two. Florida State just got swept by Oregon, which suggests they are not all that, even though Oregon is clearly good. I'll be shocked if texas a&m gets a national seed--we ended their hopes, I think. That is why that last game was huge.

 

[WVU05UT09]

I will add I think the rest of the league is stronger to the bottom than ever before.

Agreed which actually makes what Florida is doing even more impressive.

 

[larjoranj]

I realize some of our gimme games were in early season tourneys and you have to play who they pair you against. But I assume we have options of what tourneys to play in. Also, in our own tourney we played 4 games against teams ranked 117, 139, 145 and 158. Look at the names of those teams and you can safely assume they'll be 100 or lower, even if you make the schedule a few years in advance. We control who we invite to our place. We don't control who says yes, I'll grant you that. Maybe we tried and got turned down. And as far as midweek games, I get that geography plays a role. But here are some teams fairly close that would be schedule upgrades: Kennesaw State # 46; Lipscomb # 50; Louisville # 55; Georgia St # 56; Murray St # 73; UT Martin # 82; Western Ky # 94; Belmont 109.

And a team like TSU ranked # 267. For RPI purposes would we have been better off to not play them at all, even if we didn't replace them with someone else? Arnold pitched a complete game in one and Moss pitched some in the other so we didn't schedule them to give those 2 a rest. I realize games like that give the subs a chance to play when they might not otherwise.

Look, I don't mean to insinuate it's easy. I'm sure it's not. All I'm saying is, if you can replace 5 teams on your schedule ranked 150 or lower with 5 teams ranked 50-100 you should do it. It has to help the RPI a little and a program like ours is supposed to beat those teams anyway. I'd hate for the difference in us getting the 8 or the 9 seed is having played a few terrible teams when we could have played a few mediocre teams.

I'm often wrong. This may well be one of those times. Go Vols!! :clapping:

 

[sccshortstop]

I realize some of our gimme games were in early season tourneys and you have to play who they pair you against. But I assume we have options of what tourneys to play in. Also, in our own tourney we played 4 games against teams ranked 117, 139, 145 and 158. Look at the names of those teams and you can safely assume they'll be 100 or lower, even if you make the schedule a few years in advance. We control who we invite to our place. We don't control who says yes, I'll grant you that. Maybe we tried and got turned down. And as far as midweek games, I get that geography plays a role. But here are some teams fairly close that would be schedule upgrades: Kennesaw State # 46; Lipscomb # 50; Louisville # 55; Georgia St # 56; Murray St # 73; UT Martin # 82; Western Ky # 94; Belmont 109.

And a team like TSU ranked # 267. For RPI purposes would we have been better off to not play them at all, even if we didn't replace them with someone else? Arnold pitched a complete game in one and Moss pitched some in the other so we didn't schedule them to give those 2 a rest. I realize games like that give the subs a chance to play when they might not otherwise.

Look, I don't mean to insinuate it's easy. I'm sure it's not. All I'm saying is, if you can replace 5 teams on your schedule ranked 150 or lower with 5 teams ranked 50-100 you should do it. It has to help the RPI a little and a program like ours is supposed to beat those teams anyway. I'd hate for the difference in us getting the 8 or the 9 seed is having played a few terrible teams when we could have played a few mediocre teams.

I'm often wrong. This may well be one of those times. Go Vols!! :clapping:

Certainly valid points. I know that Ralph likes to play out west during the early part of the year and for good reason. He also is going to play the Georgia tourney again for good reason. Our tourney could maybe be more competitive. As young as we are as someone noted may have been a factor. I think/hope the non conference does get better and I think by playing the North Carolina teams there may be an effort. JMHO as always!:snoring:

 

[Vols4life]

I realize some of our gimme games were in early season tourneys and you have to play who they pair you against. But I assume we have options of what tourneys to play in. Also, in our own tourney we played 4 games against teams ranked 117, 139, 145 and 158. Look at the names of those teams and you can safely assume they'll be 100 or lower, even if you make the schedule a few years in advance. We control who we invite to our place. We don't control who says yes, I'll grant you that. Maybe we tried and got turned down. And as far as midweek games, I get that geography plays a role. But here are some teams fairly close that would be schedule upgrades: Kennesaw State # 46; Lipscomb # 50; Louisville # 55; Georgia St # 56; Murray St # 73; UT Martin # 82; Western Ky # 94; Belmont 109.

And a team like TSU ranked # 267. For RPI purposes would we have been better off to not play them at all, even if we didn't replace them with someone else? Arnold pitched a complete game in one and Moss pitched some in the other so we didn't schedule them to give those 2 a rest. I realize games like that give the subs a chance to play when they might not otherwise.

Look, I don't mean to insinuate it's easy. I'm sure it's not. All I'm saying is, if you can replace 5 teams on your schedule ranked 150 or lower with 5 teams ranked 50-100 you should do it. It has to help the RPI a little and a program like ours is supposed to beat those teams anyway. I'd hate for the difference in us getting the 8 or the 9 seed is having played a few terrible teams when we could have played a few mediocre teams.

I'm often wrong. This may well be one of those times. Go Vols!! :clapping:

We will always play out west for a tourney...the weeklys have friends & family out there and we have several girls who come from the west and it's a chance for them to see their family...The weeklys also look for another tourney to play in as they head out west one year it was Utah, another year Arizona state, this year New Mexico State....then they host a tourney every year or two...and play either in Georgia, Florida, or Alabama