Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

[volbeast33]

A decision to have the economy re-open is dependent on this information. And in fact if we re-open soon, as Trump wants, its not going to be that strong until people have confidence that they can get on planes, go to restaurants, etc. Best way to get that confidence is testing, or at least randomized as suggested above. Enough so that we can give people a sense that they can be reasonably assured that odds of contracting the virus are low, and getting lower.

we have less than 10 people infected at my building.....out of all of the infected.... all of the symptoms have been less than the common cold for everyone including the few severely at risk people that have contracted this disease.....

 

[Volsfaninva917]

Then doesn't that shoot a hole in the Wuhan origination story timeline? I was thinking they were talking about November/December timeframe.

They said for sure it's been here since December however they think it could have been here as early as October. They're testing people now in California in a study of about 3000 people, we will know soon

 

[615vols]

She is rooting for this to drag on so that it hurts Trump even more in November. It's obvious.

This is correct, and it is quite disgusting.

 

[Stew Cook]

Because some are cheering on the virus because in their eyes it's another reason to hate Trump

She is rooting for this to drag on so that it hurts Trump even more in November. It's obvious.

I don't think so, but what's the other side of that coin? That the people saying that we need to get back to work, wile disregarding the need for a sensible plan, are willing to sacrifice American lives so Trump can claim a recovering economy? Which is more absurd?

Come on guys, are we really gonna do this today?

 

[evillawyer]

Totally believe this has been here prior to Jan.

Which would be a good thing.

I came back from SF area in late December after being around large crowds on a daily basis. Was laid out for two days. Had a lingering cough for a week or two. Got tested for flu and came back negative. Should add that my kids got absolutely nothing, despite being around me.

 

[TennTradition]

Forget the death rate, I never understood where their forecasted infection rate numbers were coming from. They were forecasting 30-70% of our country would be infected. Let’s take the 30% number times 330M which yields 99M. Everyone said Italy was the best example of how not to handle the virus. They have roughly 152K people with a population of about 60M. If you apply that same infection rate to our population (330M) you get less than 900K cases. Granted, the virus isn’t done but the math doesn’t add up no matter what you do and it never has.

Where did IHME list their assumptions around infected population? I missed that in their paper? I though they were driving their inflection by time lapse since imposing at least 2 of 4 of the social distancing criteria.

At 62,000 dead it would seem to me they were getting something closer to 10 MM ultimately infected using a 0.66% total mortality rate, or 3%.

I’m not too caught up on total cases as a percent of population because we have decent reasons to believe that we aren’t measuring all he cases (or this virus is much more fatal that we think it is).

 

[hUTch2002]

Useless for some yes. I have money put aside for a time like this, so the message from my parents resonated. BTW, I am pretty confident that many people do not get taught this lesson.

In a world where debt is just part of life, and I’m not even just talking about homes and cars, this lesson is definitely being lost.

 

[hUTch2002]

Where did IHME list their assumptions around infected population? I missed that in their paper? I though they were driving their inflection by time lapse since imposing at least 2 of 4 of the social distancing criteria.

At 62,000 dead it would seem to me they were getting something closer to 10 MM ultimately infected using a 0.66% total mortality rate, or 3%.

I said “their” and likely used it improperly. I wasn’t specifically referring to IHME. I was referring more to the “experts” in general. These projections were everywhere just a few weeks ago.

 

[BreatheUT]

What part are you not getting about his role in all this and his limits ? He is the Federal government . We don’t want him playing in the game , we want him being a cheerleader . When he ( the feds ) get involved , the game will change . I swear , the lack of understand of this simple concept baffles me with some of you .

Sometimes the denial on this board is strong. You would think some on this board are real Simps if you didn't know any better.

They can explain why Obama hanging out with the Castros and going on the great American apology tour was brilliant and Presidential. As a matter of fact, I think those asinine decisions to make America look like a racist clown show and basically apologized for us being strong is what provoked Trump to run. Unbelievable when you really think about it. Clearly Obama/Biden felt compelled to weaken our military might have the Middle East descend in total chaos after W's bad decision.

 

[happy-go_vol]

I don't think so, but what's the other side of that coin? That the people saying that we need to get back to work, wile disregarding the need for a sensible plan, are willing to sacrifice American lives so Trump can claim a recovering economy? Which is more absurd?

Come on guys, are we really gonna do this today?

Stew your'e a sheep

 

[Dustin4Vols]

Politics aside,happy Easter everyone!

Ok continue the arguments

 

[TennTradition]

I said “their” and likely used it improperly. I wasn’t specifically referring to IHME. I was referring more to the “experts” in general. These projections were everywhere just a few weeks ago.

I think that it will ultimately have to run through percentages that high - IF the R0 is as high as the scientists who study it think it is. Weather might push that down for the summer which means people wouldn’t start getting further infected en masse until fall. But if you’re not social distancing and the R0 goes back up, more people have to get infected to get to the equilibrium level for uninfected people (here immunity). Unless a vaccine artificially lowers that ‘uninfected’ portion of the population or the estimates on R0 are wrong.

 

[37L1]

China did not officially recognize they had a problem until December, 2019. To believe any of the information that the PRC is putting out regarding CV-19 is naive at best.

Even if this happened in the US, how long would it take to figure out what was really going on, get the word out and have the appropriate response?

How long does it seem reasonable to assume that people in Wuhan were having symptoms before it became "officially" recognized and announced? Weeks? Months?

I'm betting the latter, so that could put it back as far as October, maybe sooner, maybe November. Nonetheless, Wuhan is a huge city with an international airport. It is known as "The Chicago of China". How many people, out of 11 million, traveled throughout China and the world, while being asymptomatic or only having minor symptoms before any action was taken to shut down the area? Factor all that in, with the rest of the world not knowing about this virus and treating people who had all the symptoms but couldn't be tested for it because it was unknown at the time. People who had flu symptoms rode it out at home, those who went to the Dr. and were tested and came back negative for the flu but were diagnosed as "unknown virus", those elderly who died from complications from the flu, pneumonia, etc.? I wonder how many people died from CV-19 before it was recognized as even existing? I wonder how many were ventilated for reactions to the "flu"? The testing throughout the world took a lot of time to ramp up to find out who had this virus, who had been exposed and who needed to be quarantined.

The medical community needs to examine all this after we return to almost normal. I'm not all that confident that the truth about this will ever come out, but I hope I'm wrong.

I think the medical experts are telling us how to deal with it now that it's "Officially" a problem and that, for the most part, makes some sense. But as far as the timeline for the origins and spread, there are so many questions, I think it's obvious that I'm having difficulty buying the official line that we are being fed.

 

[Stew Cook]

Stew your'e a sheep

Jesus loves you.

 

[Carl Pickens]

Mafia > government

Italian Mafia Distributes Food To Low-Income Families Under Quarantine

They know how to get the support of the people in spite of their known criminal enterprise. The best example I can think of is Pablo Escobar.

 

[Carl Pickens]

No different than government.
Watch what happens if you don't pay your debt or tribute to the government... They'll send their own set of kneebreakers to your home.

Different type, but yet the same .....

 

[DancingOutlaw]

I don't think so, but what's the other side of that coin? That the people saying that we need to get back to work, wile disregarding the need for a sensible plan, are willing to sacrifice American lives so Trump can claim a recovering economy? Which is more absurd?

Come on guys, are we really gonna do this today?

At some point you have to make a value based decision. We could have zero car deaths if we banned cars. It would destroy our economy and kill many towns but it would save lives. We need to strike a balance between safety and freedom, because they work against each other. The current number of dead from this virus represent less than 3 days of the average death rate in this country. From the way people are acting you would think this is killing every other person. Unfortunately people are going to die from this, just like they die from car accidents and bee stings. We can’t bubble wrap our country while nuking our economy or there won’t be much of anything to go back to once this interminable quarantine passes. You can frame this as people vs. money but those people with no job and a rent bill due matter as well.

 

[Carl Pickens]

Still yet to understand India. Sits beside China, a billion population, mostly living in third world conditions. And yet hardly any damage.

They live in such filth their DNA is probably toxic to the virus

 

[Carl Pickens]

At some point you have to make a value based decision. We could have zero car deaths if we banned cars. It would destroy our economy and kill many towns but it would save lives. We need to strike a balance between safety and freedom, because they work against each other. The current number of dead from this virus represent less than 3 days of the average death rate in this country. From the way people are acting you would think this is killing every other person. Unfortunately people are going to die from this, just like they die from car accidents and bee stings. We can’t bubble wrap our country while nuking our economy or there won’t be much of anything to go back to once this interminable quarantine passes. You can frame this as people vs. money but those people with no job and a rent bill due matter as well.

I think if all the MFs going to Lowe’s and Home Depot would stay home for one day so I could go this whole thing would end much sooner.

 

[Carl Pickens]

It's a joke based on (1) the Trump administration's propensity to misrepresent/lie, and (2) the fact that the Obama administration was largely smooth sailing and drama free.

Omg....

 

[Boca Vol]

Fear not! Joe has a plan:

Joe Biden: My Plan to Reopen America After the Coronavirus

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

They live in such filth their DNA is probably toxic to the virus

There is something to be said about building up immunity to these diseases the natural way. Let the diseases run its course.

 

[lawgator1]

Because some are cheering on the virus because in their eyes it's another reason to hate Trump

Utterly ridiculous post.

No one is "cheering on the virus" to spite Trump. Reality is reality. Acknowledging the reality and working to improve the situation are due to be commended as wise, not resentful.

 

[Stew Cook]

At some point you have to make a value based decision. We could have zero car deaths if we banned cars. It would destroy our economy and kill many towns but it would save lives. We need to strike a balance between safety and freedom, because they work against each other. The current number of dead from this virus represent less than 3 days of the average death rate in this country. From the way people are acting you would think this is killing every other person. Unfortunately people are going to die from this, just like they die from car accidents and bee stings. We can’t bubble wrap our country while nuking our economy or there won’t be much of anything to go back to once this interminable quarantine passes. You can frame this as people vs. money but those people with no job and a rent bill due matter as well.

Sure man, but I've mostly heard "we have to get back to work", almost as it's a tag line. I don't think anyone disputes that fact, but the way I see it, the devil is in the details. Do we go forward responsibly, or do we just carry on as usual, saying "whatever happens, happens"?

I surely hope these discussions are being had and that emphasis is placed on responsibility. Some businesses are going to have to restructure, if reality is going to meet their expectation, but I suppose this is already happening, with restaurants, for example.

Again, having masks, gloves, and the ability to sanitize things would be a good starting point, but we can't even count on these necessities, presently.

We will get back to business, but we won't get back to normal, IMO.

 

[Stew Cook]

I came back from SF area in late December after being around large crowds on a daily basis. Was laid out for two days. Had a lingering cough for a week or two. Got tested for flu and came back negative. Should add that my kids got absolutely nothing, despite being around me.

You think the West Coast CORO is weaker than the East Coast? I was having this discussion with a friend, yesterday. Seems that way, absent any definitive evidence.