Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#55,901
#55,901
TennTradition said:
The closet thing we have to shed light on this is excess death data. We can ask how many more people are dying that have typically died this time of year.

For example, that is what made me suspicious about Colorado. And then found the description on their weBsite that explained things. I’ll post those plots below.

From the excess death analysis, I’m not seeing anything that would suggest COVID deaths are way over-reported.

However, some important caveats
1) Data lag requires any data within last few weeks to be corrected and that correction has error (the CO plots below aren’t corrected for lag, that’s why the reported deaths get so much closer to excess deaths in the last week)
2) Fewer people are dying because they aren’t driving, performing strenuous activity, and even homicide - so excess deaths could be underestimating new deaths
3) however, people aren’t seeking treatment for certain conditions and this might be fatal and these would be excess deaths that aren’t COVID related.

For Colorado:
View attachment 280083View attachment 280082
Here is national analysis I did back a weeks or so ago...I need to clean it up.....but it shows COVID-associated deaths are tracking well with excess deaths (with excess deaths exceeding them so far - and that is what you want to see)

View attachment 280084
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I for one really appreciate the work you have done here. I know for a fact I could not put this data together like this. Good stuff. Thank you. I'm a tech guy and database admin but when it comes to crunching numbers and making sense with statistics and demographics, forget about it.
 
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#55,902
#55,902
TennTradition said:
Not a politician.

The only paycheck I've ever received from academia was my stipend as a graduate student.

I have a feeling you are rather judgmental and tend to establish relative worth through disqualification of other's backgrounds/experiences. But that's just my feeling....
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I just don't give a lot of credence to people that brag about their qualifications.
 
#55,903
#55,903
VolStrom said:
I just don't give a lot of credence to people that brag about their qualifications.
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Isn't saying that you must have industrial experience to have an expert opinion on something holding a qualification over the head of another? (answer: yes it is)

I've seen this cut both ways in my career - and I have a good laugh at it every time.

I'm not sure I've really seen anyone bragging about their qualifications here (mainly just your recent devaluing of someone else's opinion due to a perceived lack of qualification - in this case industrial experience).
 
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#55,904
#55,904
GoBigOrangeUT said:
Well let’s see. One is a locally owned hardware store with maybe 5 people in it at one time and one is a giant corporation that probably has anywhere between 100-200 in their store at any given time.
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Well let's see, the Lowes beside the Best Buy was wide open and with more people in it than 3 Best Buys.
 
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#55,905
#55,905
TennTradition said:
Isn't saying that you must have industrial experience to have an expert opinion on something holding a qualification over the head of another? (answer: yes it is)

I've seen this cut both ways in my career - and I have a good laugh at it every time.

I'm not sure I've really seen anyone bragging about their qualifications here (mainly just your recent devaluing of someone else's opinion due to a perceived lack of qualification - in this case industrial experience).
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I'm tired of arguing with people on here. Go your own way.
 
#55,908
#55,908
TennTradition said:
The closet thing we have to shed light on this is excess death data. We can ask how many more people are dying that have typically died this time of year.

For example, that is what made me suspicious about Colorado. And then found the description on their weBsite that explained things. I’ll post those plots below.

From the excess death analysis, I’m not seeing anything that would suggest COVID deaths are way over-reported.

However, some important caveats
1) Data lag requires any data within last few weeks to be corrected and that correction has error (the CO plots below aren’t corrected for lag, that’s why the reported deaths get so much closer to excess deaths in the last week)
2) Fewer people are dying because they aren’t driving, performing strenuous activity, and even homicide - so excess deaths could be underestimating new deaths
3) however, people aren’t seeking treatment for certain conditions and this might be fatal and these would be excess deaths that aren’t COVID related.

For Colorado:
View attachment 280083View attachment 280082
Here is national analysis I did back a weeks or so ago...I need to clean it up.....but it shows COVID-associated deaths are tracking well with excess deaths (with excess deaths exceeding them so far - and that is what you want to see)

View attachment 280084
Click to expand...

I performed a similar analysis several weeks but didn’t take it much further. I even thought about starting a thread dedicated to this where i was going to share my R scripts and allow others to append / improve.

I just haven’t had the time so abandoned the project. But I wanted to add to a few of your points:

1) as of three weeks ago, I found that the only truly reliable analysis would have to use total deaths. The COVID reporting is just too inconsistent to draw any reliable conclusions. There is no doubt deaths are up big this year, and that has to be driven by the Coronavirus.

If state data were readily available and consistent, I would want to see that breakdown by age group and county fips.

Ideally I’d want to see if I could draw a relationship between pop densities, international travel, etc.

Im not excluding the possibility that there is data out there I couldn’t find or that the reporting has improved.

2) the lag is real and hard to deal with

3) I don’t know that homicides are down. They are not in Baltimore or Chicago, as two examples.

It’s an interesting problem to break down but I really think it would take a team of people doing full time work to gather and clean the available data.

I think the question to answer is not are there a lot of COVID 19 deaths, but what is the driver of the disparate outcomes by state.
 
#55,910
#55,910
DC_Vol said:
I performed a similar analysis several weeks but didn’t take it much further. I even thought about starting a thread dedicated to this where i was going to share my R scripts and allow others to append / improve.

I just haven’t had the time so abandoned the project. But I wanted to add to a few of your points:

1) as of three weeks ago, I found that the only truly reliable analysis would have to use total deaths. The COVID reporting is just too inconsistent to draw any reliable conclusions. There is no doubt deaths are up big this year, and that has to be driven by the Coronavirus.

If state data were readily available and consistent, I would want to see that breakdown by age group and county fips.

Ideally I’d want to see if I could draw a relationship between pop densities, international travel, etc.

Im not excluding the possibility that there is data out there I couldn’t find or that the reporting has improved.

2) the lag is real and hard to deal with

3) I don’t know that homicides are down. They are not in Baltimore or Chicago, as two examples.

It’s an interesting problem to break down but I really think it would take a team of people doing full time work to gather and clean the available data.

I think the question to answer is not are there a lot of COVID 19 deaths, but what is the driver of the disparate outcomes by state.
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Yeah - I haven't researched homicides, but I included it because I saw an article where homicides were down in Miami, IIRC. Don't know where they stand nationally.
 
#55,916
#55,916
BigOrangeD said:
Never underestimate the Don.
Wall is being Built - Check
Conservative Judges Being Appointed by the 100s - Check
Taxes Lowered - Check
Built Up Economy and Will Again - Check
Ticks off the Liberals - Check
Calls out the Liberal Media - Check
Will Win Again in 2020 - Check
Will get the SOBs that Framed Him - Happening Now!
...
Click to expand...
Eliminate the debt in 8 years - Nope
Mexico is paying for the wall - Nope
Repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act - Nope
 
#55,918
#55,918
Purple Tiger said:
Do you know the difference between NY state and NYC? Cuomo doesn't control the subway. De Blassio does.
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You still of the belief no blame falls on Cuomo for not cleaning the subways? You have been quiet since I pointed out that he is in fact in charge of them. Just curious, if you are like many Trump folks on here, meaning utterly incapable of placing blame where it should go? Oh and if you want to argue if DeBlasio is an idiot don’t. We would agree.
 
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#55,920
#55,920
TennTradition said:
We had almost identical warning. First case within a day or two of each other. Approved our first test within a day of each other. Difference was we fumbled our test roll-out and we were not able/willing to contact trace.
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The difference in that was South Korea had a testing issue a few years and was ready to roll out drive thru testing.
 
#55,922
#55,922
VolStrom said:
So you whore yourself out and want what exactly? You're no different than anyone else that goes to college and then goes to work for a business. I don't care what kind of degree you have, you're going to be accountable to someone.
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Why are you busting Titans balls so hard?
 
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