From a guy I've been following since early March ---His information and predictions have been eerily accurate:
Back to analyzing the virus in several states. The first graphic below really shows well the relative trajectories of the outbreak in 5 of the states doing the worst right now, FL, TX, CA, GA, and AZ, which are all spiking at record numbers of cases (shown graphically as a 7-day moving average vs. that state's previous single day high) and all have key areas that are showing exponential growth, meaning we're likely to see these peaks continue to accelerate even if interventions are done today - but they're not generally speaking, although significant numbers of people in these states are wearing masks and staying at home, so my hope is their peaks won't be as exponential as they were in the NE US and especially in NY/NJ. I put NY/NJ on the graph also, just to show what our trajectory was and the growth rates in these 5 states show a lot of similarity, although the rate of rise is not quite as high. Yet.
We're also now seeing hospitalizations rising rapidly in those 5 states, which happens about a week or so after cases start jumping. And deaths are likely to start growing very soon in these states, if they follow the same trajectory as NY/NJ (NY is shown below and it's almost identical to NJ). As per the 2nd graphic, In NY, cases started really climbing around 3/12, when testing started really being widely available; however cases were actually peaking earlier but that wasn't being measured, but one can see the shape of the curve would've shown the peak starting at least by about 3/8 if there had been testing, peaking about 3 weeks later around early April. However, deaths didn't really start to rise rapidly until about 3/24 about 2-3 weeks after cases started rising rapidly.
If we then look at the shape of the case curves in the 5 states on the first graph, we see cases starting to rise more rapidly in the 6/13-6/17 timeframe, which would mean that we might start to see deaths rise 2-3 weeks after that, i.e., somewhere around 6/27 to 7/1 (if 2 weeks after) or even 7/4 to 7/8 if 3 weeks after. The early NY data is so sparse it makes an exact analysis difficult to do. For me, I'd be very surprised if we don't see death rates in these 5 states starting to rise at least moderately to even rapidly by the end of June to the first week in July, i.e., it's not a surprise to me that we've only seen, at most, minor rises in deaths in these states so far.
And, as I've said previously, I'd expect the death rate rises to be muted a bit vs. NY/NJ, since we are doing better with medical procedures and now have some at least moderately effective treatments (dexamethasone, tocilizumab, remdesivir and convalescent plasma). We'll see how it plays out, but if anyone is curious, I predicted we would follow Italy's trajectory on cases/deaths as cases were rising and ~2 weeks before deaths did.
Edit: I added a 3rd graphic which just came out on worldometers, showing that the US smashed its record number of cases from just yesterday (40K), reaching 47,000 cases on Friday, way higher than the 39,000 cases we saw during the initial peak in April. This is not good folks, despite what people may have heard from Pence today.
https://covidbystate.org/?fbclid=Iw...ipEBSVFTKMw2GFInbaPF_ms#/NJ-NY-TX-FL-AZ-CA-GA