Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#73,576
#73,576
BigOrangeTrain said:
He keeps thinking he is right but isn’t.
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Go ahead, show us all the "alternative math" that corroborates your "alternative facts", should be entertaining at least...

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#73,577
#73,577
Rasputin_Vol said:
Question 1: With all of the coronavirus hype, I never heard anything about a seasonal flu outbreak that we usually get. Did we have a seasonal influenza outbreak last winter?

Question 2: Will we have a seasonal influenza virus this year?
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They're already pushing flu vaccines which to me seems entirely too early.
 
#73,578
#73,578
DancingOutlaw said:
They're already pushing flu vaccines which to me seems entirely too early.
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I recommend getting them around Oct 1. Protection wanes around 6 months, so that gets you through March.

On last winter: yes, we had a slightly later-peaking flu season, but it ended abruptly when school, travel, and business shut down. I don't believe I saw a case after spring break/shutdown weekend.

The coming winter will be interesting. There's always the wildcard of which strains are prevalent and how good the vaccine "guesses" are. If many areas still have decreased public gatherings, school, etc, it will probably be lighter. On the flip side, there will probably be more testing, as everyone with so much as a sniffle will be seeking medical attention, often at the requirement of schools or employers. I could see our office going through a boatload of flu and CV 19 tests.
 
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#73,579
#73,579
BeardedVol said:
Just arguing against his poorly informed logic.

I don't work in the medical field, but I did spend a little over a decade in statistical computing and data modeling before moving from development into IT systems engineering.
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OK, thank you. I can appreciate your attention to numbers and statistics. However, there is a great deal of uncertainty and incompleteness to our data, right now.

It does appear that you are quite pessimistic and cynical with the handling and the future of this pandemic. I can tell you that from the position of real-world practice, and from input of many of my colleagues both locally and around the country (including those who work in intensive care, immunology, and pulmonology), there is quite a bit of reason for optimism in the future. There really does seem to be an achievement of herd immunity and decline in both infection rates and deaths once a fairly consistent percentage of populations are affected. And, it doesn't appear to make much difference what measures are taken: they look to only delay the inevitable.

I hope and pray this holds true. I also sincerely believe that we can learn a lot about how best to handle novel viruses, if we take a fair and careful retrospective look when this is over.
 
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#73,581
#73,581
kiddiedoc said:
OK, thank you. I can appreciate your attention to numbers and statistics. However, there is a great deal of uncertainty and incompleteness to our data, right now.

It does appear that you are quite pessimistic and cynical with the handling and the future of this pandemic. I can tell you that from the position of real-world practice, and from input of many of my colleagues both locally and around the country (including those who work in intensive care, immunology, and pulmonology), there is quite a bit of reason for optimism in the future. There really does seem to be an achievement of herd immunity and decline in both infection rates and deaths once a fairly consistent percentage of populations are affected. And, it doesn't appear to make much difference what measures are taken: they look to only delay the inevitable.

I hope and pray this holds true. I also sincerely believe that we can learn a lot about how best to handle novel viruses, if we take a fair and careful retrospective look when this is over.
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You are correct, it is incomplete we most likely won't have a somewhat accurate estimate for total infections until sometime late next year. That being said, the data still shows with 100% certainty, that covid 19 is more deadly than H1N1, by a considerable margin, which was what my original post on the subject concerned.

Given the serological numbers coming out of Sweden, the hopes of lost lasting herd immunity don't look that promising IMHO. It's early, but given their less-restrictive response, even hitting 40% which is the lowest portion of the population I've seen floated for possible protection via herd immunity is going to come at a very high price in terms of life.
 
#73,584
#73,584
BeardedVol said:
You are correct, it is incomplete we most likely won't have a somewhat accurate estimate for total infections until sometime late next year. That being said, the data still shows with 100% certainty, that covid 19 is more deadly than H1N1, by a considerable margin, which was what my original post on the subject concerned.

Given the serological numbers coming out of Sweden, the hopes of lost lasting herd immunity don't look that promising IMHO. It's early, but given their less-restrictive response, even hitting 40% which is the lowest portion of the population I've seen floated for possible protection via herd immunity is going to come at a very high price in terms of life.
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What if ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Closer Than Scientists Thought?
 
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#73,586
#73,586
Hmmm. So close contact inside the home?

ACP Journals

Conclusion:
Household contact was the main setting for transmission of SARS-CoV-2, and the risk for transmission of SARS-CoV-2 among close contacts increased with the severity of index cases.
 
#73,589
#73,589
BeardedVol said:
It's midway given that current estimates sit between .5 and 1.2%

In the context of the original post, still significantly higher than the . 02% CFR of H1N1 that @Halph66 was trying to compare Covid 19 to.

I've already shown you the math, that even if every single American were to become infected with Covid 19, and our deaths stopped today at their current number, we'd still be at .05% CFR.

It's not going to be that low in the end, because we both know that that the entire population is not going to get infected, and that people will not stop dying from it.
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Incorrect. The Lancet projection is nowhere near 1.2%.

I've not seen a recent reputable publication even suggesting a mortality rate above 1%.
 
#73,593
#73,593
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#73,595
#73,595
rjd970 said:
We had a choice too and chose in-school but they are forcing everyone virtual for at least the first 9 weeks. Kill me now.
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That’s sucks. Why give the choice then? They won’t stop at 9 weeks. Knox County starts Monday and we chose in-person as well but I give it maybe 30 days before they force everyone to go virtual.
 
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#73,596
#73,596
sjt18 said:
I can pretty much guarantee that ANY Dem President would have.... in fact they would have been made heroes.

Compare the way Obama's drone assassinations were reported compared to Trump taking out that Iranian terrorist general. Obama was a hero. Trump was a villain. Even Obama's move on bin Laden was a raid on a supposed ally in the middle of the night... without their permission. It was a good move but the media could have reported that from an entirely different angle and would have had there not been a "D" beside his name.
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Oh I don’t doubt the MSM would have spun it as if a Dem POTUS handled it better than God would have but perception isn’t always reality, right Luther?

Where is Luther anyway? Seems like I haven’t seen his posts the last few days. Maybe I’ve just missed them.
 
#73,597
#73,597
hUTch2002 said:
That’s sucks. Why give the choice then? They won’t stop at 9 weeks. Knox County starts Monday and we chose in-person as well but I give it maybe 30 days before they force everyone to go virtual.
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Speculation is they’ll go for a week or 2 before shutting down in person. It is thought that the goal is to get the Chromebooks in the hands of all the kids, teach them in person how to use them so most will know how, and then shut it down.
 
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#73,598
#73,598
hUTch2002 said:
That’s sucks. Why give the choice then? They won’t stop at 9 weeks. Knox County starts Monday and we chose in-person as well but I give it maybe 30 days before they force everyone to go virtual.
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They were actually set to go in person on Aug 3, then it got pushed back to Aug 17, then we had a choice to go in person or virtual the first semester with the option to change in December, then it is everyone including in person is forced to go virtual at least the first half of Fall semester.

Every decision along the way was forced by the fear peddlers and morons shaming (like a lot of the corona crew on here) the school system to keep everyone home. Think about the old people, this thing is deadly and you will be killing people, things are getting worse, you will be amplifying the problem, etc.

It's totally ridiculous.
 
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#73,599
#73,599
rjd970 said:
They were actually set to go in person on Aug 3, then it got pushed back to Aug 17, then we had a choice to go in person or virtual the first semester with the option to change in December, then it is everyone including in person is forced to go virtual at least the first half of Fall semester.

Every decision along the way was forced by the fear peddlers and morons shaming (like a lot of the corona crew on here) the school system to keep everyone home. Think about the old people, this thing is deadly and you will be killing people, things are getting worse, you will be amplifying the problem, etc.

It's totally ridiculous.
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Damn, that sounds similar to Knox County. We backed up to the 17th and now the 24th because they couldn’t find enough teachers and weren’t prepared. They haven’t forced 100% virtual yet but it’s coming. Davethevol is probably right about the plan to teach all kids how to use the Chromebooks and then within a couple weeks shut it all down. I hope not. I have 3 boys, one of which is autistic. My mother in law watches them when not in school. How is she supposed to manage keeping an eye on all 3? Even if I can help some since I’m working from home, my autistic son will not sit at a computer all day or even for an hour and take classes. Maybe if someone sat right there with him you could get an hour. Maybe. These are just the logistical concerns. There are plenty of others with quality of education, social development, and so on. Hopefully they’ll stay in school but that’s also going to be a pain with all of the crazy rules they’re developing. On a side note, I love the fear porn CNN is peddling this morning. There’s an article talking about what happened when kids went back to school in 1918. Yes, because things now are so similar.
 
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