Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#73,527
#73,527
LouderVol said:
It's simple. What multiplier did they use for H1N1? Now use it for Covid. You are falling into the earlier trap of comparing real numbers to comparisons. I did the math earlier in this thread and the Flu has a 3ish% case mortality rate if you apply the same logic.

And that's using a much more strict application of dying FROM the flu to dying WITH Covid. The Covid numbers are generated from data that is, relatively, designed to INCREASE the counts vs standard practice.

I am not arguing that Covid isnt worse. It's easily the worst I have seen in my short life. But it's not nearly as bad as the fear mongers want it to be. And they use funky one off math to make weighted arguments when actual comparisons show something less. Which is why I called out your application of this number.
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Christ on a pogostick...did you stop attending math classes at the same time that you stopped your scientific education? Ok, quick math class here we go.

*Disclaimer, all CDC influenza estimates are, are just that, estimates, but for the sake of argument, we are going to assume they are 100 fact.*

2018-2019 Seasonal Influenza Numbers, per the CDC: 35,500,000 cases 34,200 deaths.

(Total Deaths)/(Total Infected)*100=CFR (case fatality rate)

2018-2019 Influenza (34,000/35,500,000) * 100= .1

So the CFR for seasonal influenza in the US, is .1%

Still with me?

Now let's use the power of algebra to work backwards with the data we have for Covid 19.

Current Deaths: 174,631
CFR: Let's go with the best case estimate that I've seen which is .7%

So how do we find how many total infections that we need to keep a .7% CFR given our Current Deaths?

X=Unknown Total Infections

(174,631/X) *100 = .7
174,63100/X=.7
17463100=.7X
24,947,286=X

So to maintain a .7% mortality rate given the current number of deaths, we need roughly 25,000,000 infections.

Now here's the question, have we already had 20,000,000 untested, unnoticed Covid 19 infections? I don't know, but I'd say it's unlikely given what we know about covid 19 and the general unhealthiness of the American public.

Back to @Halph66 's assertion that H1N1 was worse, we only saw ~12,000 deaths out of ~60,000,000 estimated cases. H1N1 is not worse than Covid 19 in terms of mortality, not even under the best case scenarios for Covid 19. We don't have enough people in the United States at this point, even if 100% of the population were to get infected, to get a CFR of ~.02% which is what H1N1 ended with.
 
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#73,528
#73,528
sjt18 said:
That is your dodge of overwhelming left wing bias in the media?

So 2 sources out of how many creates "balance"? Those are not considered "mainstream" media sources... and they don't have a history or public perception of being that. You ask most people and they've been told and come to believe that FNC is "conservative" while CNN, WaPo, ABC, et al are "centrist" or even "unbiased".

I don't watch very much broadcast news of any kind. They hype up the emotion and generally come up WAY short on facts.

I see FNC occasionally. They're going out of their way to not be too much in the tank for Trump in their straight news. Their talk shows and panels are decidedly right of center.

Newsmax isn't even carried on all tv services... and they counter say... NBC? The NYT's?

Also, FNC generally follows the same narrative as the MSM. They report it differently but you won't find a lot of different stories being reported.
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No dodge. And no one has misquoted the President during this pandemic. His words and actions are clearly on the record. Your characterization of Fox News talk shows is ridiculous. Ever watcht the Five? You have 4 Trump slurpers and Juan, who is very much centered ideologically. You must not see the pandering of Gutfield, Hannity, Watters and Carlson. They NEVER hold the President accountable for his classless behavior nor do they ever call him out on his lies and false claims. The midday news shows are only programs right of center
 
#73,529
#73,529
BeardedVol said:
Christ on a pogostick...did you stop attending math classes at the same time that you stopped your scientific education? Ok, quick math class here we go.

*Disclaimer, all CDC influenza estimates are, are just that, estimates, but for the sake of argument, we are going to assume they are 100 fact.*

2018-2019 Seasonal Influenza Numbers, per the CDC: 35,500,000 cases 34,200 deaths.

(Total Deaths)/(Total Infected)*100=CFR (case fatality rate)

2018-2019 Influenza (34,000/35,500,000) * 100= .1

So the CFR for seasonal influenza in the US, is .1%

Still with me?

Now let's use the power of algebra to work backwards with the data we have for Covid 19.

Current Deaths: 174,631
CFR: Let's go with the best case estimate that I've seen which is .7%

So how do we find how many total infections that we need to keep a .7% CFR given our Current Deaths?

X=Unknown Total Infections

(174,631/X) *100 = .7
174,63100/X=.7
17463100=.7X
24,947,286=X

So to maintain a .7% mortality rate given the current number of deaths, we need roughly 25,000,000 infections.

Now here's the question, have we already had 20,000,000 untested, unnoticed Covid 19 infections? I don't know, but I'd say it's unlikely given what we know about covid 19 and the general unhealthiness of the American public.

Back to @Halph66 's assertion that H1N1 was worse, we only saw ~12,000 deaths out of ~60,000,000 estimated cases. H1N1 is not worse than Covid 19 in terms of mortality, not even under the best case scenarios for Covid 19. We don't have enough people in the United States at this point, even if 100% of the population were to get infected, to get a CFR of ~.02% which is what H1N1 ended with.
Click to expand...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/25/coronavirus-cases-10-times-larger/
 
#73,530
#73,530
BeardedVol said:
Christ on a pogostick...did you stop attending math classes at the same time that you stopped your scientific education? Ok, quick math class here we go.

*Disclaimer, all CDC influenza estimates are, are just that, estimates, but for the sake of argument, we are going to assume they are 100 fact.*

2018-2019 Seasonal Influenza Numbers, per the CDC: 35,500,000 cases 34,200 deaths.

(Total Deaths)/(Total Infected)*100=CFR (case fatality rate)

2018-2019 Influenza (34,000/35,500,000) * 100= .1

So the CFR for seasonal influenza in the US, is .1%

Still with me?

Now let's use the power of algebra to work backwards with the data we have for Covid 19.

Current Deaths: 174,631
CFR: Let's go with the best case estimate that I've seen which is .7%

So how do we find how many total infections that we need to keep a .7% CFR given our Current Deaths?

X=Unknown Total Infections

(174,631/X) *100 = .7
174,63100/X=.7
17463100=.7X
24,947,286=X

So to maintain a .7% mortality rate given the current number of deaths, we need roughly 25,000,000 infections.

Now here's the question, have we already had 20,000,000 untested, unnoticed Covid 19 infections? I don't know, but I'd say it's unlikely given what we know about covid 19 and the general unhealthiness of the American public.

Back to @Halph66 's assertion that H1N1 was worse, we only saw ~12,000 deaths out of ~60,000,000 estimated cases. H1N1 is not worse than Covid 19 in terms of mortality, not even under the best case scenarios for Covid 19. We don't have enough people in the United States at this point, even if 100% of the population were to get infected, to get a CFR of ~.02% which is what H1N1 ended with.
Click to expand...
tl, dr, dc
 
#73,533
#73,533
rjd970 said:
I'm on day 2 of virtual schooling for my kid and it is chaos and I'm about to throw my kid's school computer out of the window. There has been frustration, tears, and breakdowns. I only have 9 more weeks of this, minimum.

The fear peddlers and Karen's can go to hell. Every last one of you. This is ridiculous.
Click to expand...
I've heard the same from parents every day for the past week. It's worthless.
 
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#73,534
#73,534
sjt18 said:
I don't think that the virus being real is lost on Trump. It is perfectly reasonable that he resents how it is being used by the media. If this were "President Hillary Clinton" and she had done the exact same things... this same media would be talking about her heroic leadership and level headed approach. In fact, she could have done much less and gotten praise. Trump is likely angry because the Covid narrative has been used to hand cuff him.

No. You wouldn't do that unless you had decided to drop out of the race. The media would crucify him if he tried it. Again, it wasn't that long ago that media propaganda accused Republicans of wanting to throw grandma off the train for suggesting reasonable reductions in social program PLANNED INCREASES. No one has proposed an actual "cut" to welfare in ages. The media attacks any conservative who even suggests cutting projected annual increases which are almost always at least double the rate of inflation.

Other than CNN and other leftist propaganda machines... I'm not sure where the idea comes from that Trump considers the virus itself a hoax. It is a serious health care issue that has been blown completely out of proportion in part by the way "deaths" have been counted. When even that began to not be "scary" due to a steep drop in deaths as treatment methods were discovered and New Yorkers stopped being the primary counters... the narrative transitioned over night to "cases".



Here's what we know about "cases". At least 35% of those cases will be completely asymptomatic. The majority of the rest will have mild symptoms that they would have treated like a cold or the flu if they had not known it was the black plague... errrrrr, Covid-19 due to a test. I believe the number of cases considered "severe" were under 10% last time I saw those numbers... seems like maybe 5% or less.

Hospitalizations are a VERY objective way for judging how severe a virus is. On current pace, Covid hospitalizations appear to be headed for about half what the flu hospitalizations were two years ago. About 350,000 Americans have been hospitalized for Covid in the last 6 months. Two years ago the US recorded 950,000 hospitalizations during the 7 months of "flu season". Hospitalizations are also the way CDC "estimates" flu deaths. They don't actually count them and certainly have no where near the accuracy of "Covid" death counts.
Click to expand...
“Now the Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus,” Trump said. “They have no clue, they can't even count their votes in Iowa. This is their new hoax,”

The pandemic is “fading away. It’s going to fade away.”

President Donald Trump on Monday retweeted a right-wing game show host Chuck Woolery COVID-19 conspiracy theory that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and doctors are lying to influence the election

My guess is the thought the he thinks it not real or a hoax comes more from him than CNN.

Money is being spent so quickly it's hard to get a handle but it's estimated to be 6 trillion so far for something he thinks is fake or no big deal (depending on the day).

6 trillion and not one bridge, school or patched pothole to show for it. Rampant socialism at it's best
 
#73,535
#73,535
BeardedVol said:
Christ on a pogostick...did you stop attending math classes at the same time that you stopped your scientific education? Ok, quick math class here we go.

*Disclaimer, all CDC influenza estimates are, are just that, estimates, but for the sake of argument, we are going to assume they are 100 fact.*

2018-2019 Seasonal Influenza Numbers, per the CDC: 35,500,000 cases 34,200 deaths.

(Total Deaths)/(Total Infected)*100=CFR (case fatality rate)

2018-2019 Influenza (34,000/35,500,000) * 100= .1

So the CFR for seasonal influenza in the US, is .1%

Still with me?

Now let's use the power of algebra to work backwards with the data we have for Covid 19.

Current Deaths: 174,631
CFR: Let's go with the best case estimate that I've seen which is .7%

So how do we find how many total infections that we need to keep a .7% CFR given our Current Deaths?

X=Unknown Total Infections

(174,631/X) *100 = .7
174,63100/X=.7
17463100=.7X
24,947,286=X

So to maintain a .7% mortality rate given the current number of deaths, we need roughly 25,000,000 infections.

Now here's the question, have we already had 20,000,000 untested, unnoticed Covid 19 infections? I don't know, but I'd say it's unlikely given what we know about covid 19 and the general unhealthiness of the American public.

Back to @Halph66 's assertion that H1N1 was worse, we only saw ~12,000 deaths out of ~60,000,000 estimated cases. H1N1 is not worse than Covid 19 in terms of mortality, not even under the best case scenarios for Covid 19. We don't have enough people in the United States at this point, even if 100% of the population were to get infected, to get a CFR of ~.02% which is what H1N1 ended with.
Click to expand...
Actually, according to numerous antibody studies around the U.S. and other countries, we've likely had MORE than 20,000,000 additional undiagnosed "cases." In many areas the seroconversion rate is 10x the known number of cases.
 
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#73,536
#73,536
508mikey said:
tl, dr, dc
Click to expand...
UzYu.gif
 
#73,540
#73,540
BeardedVol said:
Christ on a pogostick...did you stop attending math classes at the same time that you stopped your scientific education? Ok, quick math class here we go.

*Disclaimer, all CDC influenza estimates are, are just that, estimates, but for the sake of argument, we are going to assume they are 100 fact.*

2018-2019 Seasonal Influenza Numbers, per the CDC: 35,500,000 cases 34,200 deaths.

(Total Deaths)/(Total Infected)*100=CFR (case fatality rate)

2018-2019 Influenza (34,000/35,500,000) * 100= .1

So the CFR for seasonal influenza in the US, is .1%

Still with me?

Now let's use the power of algebra to work backwards with the data we have for Covid 19.

Current Deaths: 174,631
CFR: Let's go with the best case estimate that I've seen which is .7%

So how do we find how many total infections that we need to keep a .7% CFR given our Current Deaths?

X=Unknown Total Infections

(174,631/X) *100 = .7
174,63100/X=.7
17463100=.7X
24,947,286=X

So to maintain a .7% mortality rate given the current number of deaths, we need roughly 25,000,000 infections.

Now here's the question, have we already had 20,000,000 untested, unnoticed Covid 19 infections? I don't know, but I'd say it's unlikely given what we know about covid 19 and the general unhealthiness of the American public.

Back to @Halph66 's assertion that H1N1 was worse, we only saw ~12,000 deaths out of ~60,000,000 estimated cases. H1N1 is not worse than Covid 19 in terms of mortality, not even under the best case scenarios for Covid 19. We don't have enough people in the United States at this point, even if 100% of the population were to get infected, to get a CFR of ~.02% which is what H1N1 ended with.
Click to expand...
My math is fine. You stop understanding english?

I stated that if you used the Covid methodology you get much higher flu numbers.

@TennTradition care to weigh in on this, again?

We got another one who doesnt understand what he is actually saying.

Here is the CDC link. Update: Influenza Activity in the United States During the 2018–19 ....

1,145,555 tests to the CDC.
177,039 tested positive. That's it. 180k. Oh yeah that's a 15% positive rate. Covid hovering around 5?
I cant find the actual reported death numbers. I know I have seen a 4k number of actual deaths, maybe Tenn has that info?
Just using 4 since I cant back it up better is 2.2%.
 
#73,541
#73,541
kiddiedoc said:
Actually, according to numerous antibody studies around the U.S. and other countries, we've likely had MORE than 20,000,000 additional undiagnosed "cases." In many areas the seroconversion rate is 10x the known number of cases.
Click to expand...

There's also compelling evidence that the deaths are currently under-counted.

Both points of which are moot in terms of @Halph66 's original assertion that we didn't "freak out" over H1n1, with it's .02% CFR, when the best CFR we can manage with Covid 19 is .05%, and that is literally if our deaths stop today, and we find out that all ~328,000,000 Americans are actually infected.
 
#73,542
#73,542
LouderVol said:
My math is fine. You stop understanding english?

I stated that if you used the Covid methodology you get much higher flu numbers.

@TennTradition care to weigh in on this, again?

We got another one who doesnt understand what he is actually saying.

Here is the CDC link. Update: Influenza Activity in the United States During the 2018–19 ....

1,145,555 tests to the CDC.
177,039 tested positive. That's it. 180k. Oh yeah that's a 15% positive rate. Covid hovering around 5?
I cant find the actual reported death numbers. I know I have seen a 4k number of actual deaths, maybe Tenn has that info?
Just using 4 since I cant back it up better is 2.2%.
Click to expand...

Again... You need to research how the CDC estimates seasonal influenza infections and deaths. I literally gave you the link to their page describing how they do so, and the link to the published 2018-2019 numbers.
 
#73,545
#73,545
BeardedVol said:
Again... You need to research how the CDC estimates seasonal influenza infections and deaths. I literally gave you the link to their page describing how they do so, and the link to the published 2018-2019 numbers.
Click to expand...

You sure are invested in this.
 
#73,549
#73,549
Thread can be retired.

Mypillow dude says he heard a poison plant cures the virus and Trump is all over it.

You know, I suppose that if you poisoned yourself, or shot yourself, in a sense that cures the virus and keeps it from spreading.
 
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