Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#90,527
#90,527
volinbham said:
So I'm seeing pushback (once here and now on Fox) about having students fill out a survey daily regarding symptoms to receive a "passport" to return to school

We've been using this system since August and while occasionally a pain in the ass I see no problem with asking someone to report if they have symptoms to identify who might be a good candidate for testing.
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I see no reason for them to fill out anything like that because they can lie. If they want to be in school they can lie about not feeling good. If we can't prove that they're lying, what's the point? I see the same thing for adults. We have to fill stuff out like that when we go to the doctor/dentist or even to give blood. Why would someone who's shown up for an appointment say anything other than I feel fine?
 
#90,528
#90,528
#90,529
#90,529
Sea Ray said:
I see no reason for them to fill out anything like that because they can lie. If they want to be in school they can lie about not feeling good. If we can't prove that they're lying, what's the point? I see the same thing for adults. We have to fill stuff out like that when we go to the doctor/dentist or even to give blood. Why would someone who's shown up for an appointment say anything other than I feel fine?
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yes they can lie (or self diagnose) - still it's been effective and makes it easier to do contact tracing

I'm pretty libertarian but I don't see this as an invasion of privacy or threat to my liberties
 
#90,530
#90,530
#90,531
#90,531
Sea Ray said:
For the medical people here:

At least 822 people in Colorado have gotten COVID twice | 9news.com

Are these reinfections or not? I see a lot of doubletalk in that article. The article fails to mention how sick, if at all, these people were who tested positive a second time.
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No big deal. You can get the flu multiple times. Same likely will be with COVID. Throughout all the hoopla COVID is acting almost exactly like viruses do. There is nothing to worry about.
 
#90,532
#90,532
Sea Ray said:
For the medical people here:

At least 822 people in Colorado have gotten COVID twice | 9news.com

Are these reinfections or not? I see a lot of doubletalk in that article. The article fails to mention how sick, if at all, these people were who tested positive a second time.
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One thing that is interesting is that they use the term “reinfection.” The FDA EUA for most of the laboratory tests require healthcare provider to make the clinical decision that the tested patient is infected, ie exhibiting symptoms or exposed. Many other private laboratory surveillance testing does not require symptoms or exposure (college and university, Sports, etc.) and according to CDC and CMS “This surveillance testing is not considered by CMS to be diagnostic of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and individuals undergoing testing should not rely on information received from this type of testing for decision making purposes.”

Second, it states that viral load was much less on second infection. How is viral load calculated? The most common way I’ve seen is it’s relation to cycle threshold. Was the Ct of the second test >35 indicating low viral load? Then it’s likely this was not clinically relevant to begin with and more consistent with a false positive.

True “reinfections” will undoubtedly occur. But the their prevalence will remain a bit of a mystery until we are accurately measuring what we are testing.
 
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#90,533
#90,533
allvol123 said:
I am looking for a 3 day weekend trip for the family. Florida is absolutely booked up for the weekend I want. So yea, they are going about their business.
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I bought tickets Monday. Taking our Moms to SeaWorld mid April for a long weekend. They are excited. Enjoy your trip.
 
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#90,534
#90,534
Sea Ray said:
For the medical people here:

At least 822 people in Colorado have gotten COVID twice | 9news.com

Are these reinfections or not? I see a lot of doubletalk in that article. The article fails to mention how sick, if at all, these people were who tested positive a second time.
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The medical literature is still spotty on reinfection, but it certainly is very rare. It would be important to understand if and how symptomatic people were with both of the positive tests. It would also be nice to see the number of cycles used as the cutoff threshold for positive PCR tests, as that is a major factor in false positives. Most labs continue to use a high number of cycles, which is the most likely way to detect all cases (low false negative rate), but will also yield the most false positives.

That article states that the "reinfection" cases represent 0.19% of the total cases in Colorado. It's hard to give an actual number for false positive rate, given the variability of PCR cycles used by different labs (c. 24->40), but multiple sources suggest that it could range around 0.5-0-9% or even much higher. If you have a low true infection rate, the false positive impact becomes quite significant if testing remains high.

Long story short: as cases decline, there will be a higher proportion of false positives, so maybe the "0.19%" looks quite insignificant, if of any significance at all.
 
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#90,535
#90,535
allvol123 said:
I am looking for a 3 day weekend trip for the family. Florida is absolutely booked up for the weekend I want. So yea, they are going about their business.
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Yeah, my family is struggling a bit to find something later this summer. I know we went last June and besides reduced numbers on stuff and daily cleanings for an hour pretty much everything was open where we stayed.
 
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#90,536
#90,536
mr.checkerboards said:
Yeah, my family is struggling a bit to find something later this summer. I know we went last June and besides reduced numbers on stuff and daily cleanings for an hour pretty much everything was open where we stayed.
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When we booked our summer vacation several months ago, rental prices at houses we have stayed at before in the 30A area and Destin were around 25%+ higher. I think the lack of options (cruises, international travel, some states still on lockdown) have driven up costs. Supply and demand 101.
 
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#90,537
#90,537
kiddiedoc said:
When we booked our summer vacation several months ago, rental prices at houses we have stayed at before in the 30A area and Destin were around 25%+ higher. I think the lack of options (cruises, international travel, some states still on lockdown) have driven up costs. Supply and demand 101.
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Yep, we are trying to go to Hilton Head in May and theres nothing. The place we are looking at in FL my family has a timeshare and its like every time they open up reservations theyre gone the next day.
 
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#90,540
#90,540
evillawyer said:
Because it is a strong counterexample to the theory that the current drop in cases can be attributed to approaching herd immunity. By this line of reasoning, the more hard hit/vaccinated the area is (and NYC is both hard hit and highly vaccinated compared to it's peers), the more it should be showing the effects of herd immunity. NYC has been harder hit than just about anywhere else (especially certain neighborhoods) and is 11% vaccinated (which is high), but instead of showing a faster dropoff from the recent surge, NYC is showing a very slow decline, with positivity rates higher than most other parts of the country. If the herd immunity theory isn't true in NYC, there's good reason to believe it is also not explaining the drops we see elsewhere because those other areas (1) have a smaller percentage of people who would have the natural antibodies, and (2) a lower vaccination rate.
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Just keep living in your closet draped in fear and stfu.... the rest of us have lives to get back to
 
#90,545
#90,545
Electric Orange said:
View attachment 355254
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I know someone in Texas with a small eatery that complained about it opening back up like this. But what’s ironic is they are going to increase their seating capacity instead of keeping it at the current mandated level despite being so scared. The left’s hypocrisy is rich.
 
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#90,546
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davethevol said:
I know someone in Texas with a small eatery that complained about it opening back up like this. But what’s ironic is they are going to increase their seating capacity instead of keeping it at the current mandated level despite being so scared. The left’s hypocrisy is rich.
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Since FL is booked for when I want, I am now looking toward Texas. I emailed a couple of resorts asking what their stance was going to be. Will be interested to see their replies.
 
#90,548
#90,548
BigOrangeTrain said:
The others are upwards of 95% effective.
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A 1.7% becomes a .255% (J&J) chance of death vs .085%(Moderna)

Remember that the US death sans Covid is already .75%

Again looking at the stats it's amazing we shut down.

And those stats for Covid are based on actual positives vs actual deaths. You take any of the likely multipliers and those numbers get even smaller.

I will continue to play the odds.
 
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#90,549
#90,549
#90,550
#90,550
To the above if you take even the small multiplier of 4 times the number of infections that arent caught, you get a Covid death rate .4% vs the US average of .75%.

And before the bros say we are adding a significant chance to our deaths (.4+.75), you have to remember that .4 already includes a very inclusive "died with covid" number already.

Doing the math with Covid death the US average is .9%, with was our death rate back in 2010.

Thanks Obama.
 
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