Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#101,301
#101,301
evillawyer said:
This just shows the solipsism of the modern GOP. Me, me, me. That's all that matters. Societal good is not a consideration. Except when we make believe for an hour on Sunday morning.
Click to expand...
What is the societal consideration? You didn’t answer the question. You as part of society are protected as is everyone else who’s vaccinated so who do I have to be concerned about?
 
#101,302
#101,302
evillawyer said:
This just shows the solipsism of the modern GOP. Me, me, me. That's all that matters. Societal good is not a consideration. Except when we make believe for an hour on Sunday morning.
Click to expand...

Who shut the schools down because they were afraid for themselves or worse, to leverage children's education to get more $$$ for themselves?

Which party has numerous leaders who continue to violate the rules they've put in place for others because it's inconvenient for them.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Rocky_Top_Vol13, Wireless1, Big Orange#1 and 5 others
#101,303
#101,303
volinbham said:
Well let's look at the data you posted:

"The move came as new figures showed how many people in hospital with the Delta variant have had one or both doses of a Covid vaccine. Between 21 June and 19 July, 1,788 people were admitted to hospital after testing positive for Delta. Of these, 54% were unvaccinated while 30% had received both shots. In total, 3,692 people have so far been admitted to hospital with the Delta variant, of whom 2,152 (58%) were unvaccinated and 843 (23%) were fully vaccinated."

The first bolded phrase suggests that the number of people with natural immunity but not vaxxed must be lower than the number who were fully vaxxed (54 + 30 =84 leaving a max of 16% that had natural immunity though it is likely lower since some in that 16% may have had one shot).

The second bolded tells the same story (58 + 23 = 81 leaving a max of 19% that had natural immunity with the same caveat above).

So thank you for providing data that shows natural immunity is providing more protection from hospitalization than is vaccination immunity.
Click to expand...

Unvaccinated just means unvaccinated. The contrast in the above passage is between vaccinated and unvaccinated. It says nothing about who has or doesn't have natural immunity.
 
#101,305
#101,305
evillawyer said:
Unvaccinated just means unvaccinated. The contrast in the above passage is between vaccinated and unvaccinated. It says nothing about who has or doesn't have natural immunity.
Click to expand...

What do you suppose the unamed proportion is?

This doesn't support your claim that vaccinated immunity is greater than natural. Take the first bolded for example - you believe that the 54% unvaxxed are more than half made up of natural immunity reinfections; IOW, reinfections are outpacing first time infections?
 
#101,306
#101,306
#101,310
#101,310
So to the PHE study

In light of the findings, PHE upgraded its risk assessment on “immunity after natural infection” from amber to red for the Delta variant. Reinfections remain a rarity though, accounting for only 1.2% of the 83,197 cases analysed.

That makes 998 reinfections out of the 83,197.

The hospitalization data shows 23% of the hospitalized (a fraction of the total cases) were fully vaxxed - that's 849.

So in total 998 were reinfections (which may include people who were fully vaxxed) and 849 of hospitalized patients were double vaxxed. Seems these numbers suggest more vaxxed people are getting Covid than those with natural immunity.

(Caveat - we don't know if the PHE study includes the subset in the hospital or if that comes from a separate data set - the article doesn't specify).
 
  • Like
Reactions: jaybird_1981 and allvol123
#101,312
#101,312
volinbham said:
What do you suppose the unamed proportion is?

This doesn't support your claim that vaccinated immunity is greater than natural. Take the first bolded for example - you believe that the 54% unvaxxed are more than half made up of natural immunity reinfections; IOW, reinfections are outpacing first time infections?
Click to expand...

I don't need to argue, and am not arguing, that vaccine-based immunity is greater or better than infection-based immunity (although there is some data saying it's better). What I am arguing is that even if you have infection-based immunity you would have greater protection by also getting vaccinated.

The question is simply "Should I get vaxxed?" And the answer is always yes.

If you have not been infected, you will acquire more immunity by getting vaxxed without any of the risks associated with acquiring infection-based immunity. There may be a breakthrough case, but you will be in a substantially better position to deal with it.

If you have been infected, you will gain more immunity by getting vaxxed than you would have without the vaccine (plenty of data showing this). Additionally, many who were previously infected, were infected months if not over a year ago. Moreover, many are not certain that they got infected because they were never tested.

Ceteris paribus, given that vaccines are highly safe, and widely available, there is no reason to not get vaccinated.
 
#101,313
#101,313
volinbham said:
Well let's look at the data you posted:

"The move came as new figures showed how many people in hospital with the Delta variant have had one or both doses of a Covid vaccine. Between 21 June and 19 July, 1,788 people were admitted to hospital after testing positive for Delta. Of these, 54% were unvaccinated while 30% had received both shots. In total, 3,692 people have so far been admitted to hospital with the Delta variant, of whom 2,152 (58%) were unvaccinated and 843 (23%) were fully vaccinated."

The first bolded phrase suggests that the number of people with natural immunity but not vaxxed must be lower than the number who were fully vaxxed (54 + 30 =84 leaving a max of 16% that had natural immunity though it is likely lower since some in that 16% may have had one shot).

The second bolded tells the same story (58 + 23 = 81 leaving a max of 19% that had natural immunity with the same caveat above).

So thank you for providing data that shows natural immunity is providing more protection from hospitalization than is vaccination immunity.
Click to expand...

I'm not quite sure you can draw those conclusions, at least not with any confidence. You cannot assume that all of those with natural immunity fell into the third bucket. Some folks with natural immunity might have also been vaccinated, and some might have become reinfected and wound up hospitalized. All we know is that the remaining bucket is folks who had only one shot or perhaps had both but were still in the two week window before being considered "fully vaccinated."*

*The article uses two different terms that may or may not mean the same thing: "had both shots" and "fully vaccinated."
 
#101,317
#101,317
evillawyer said:
I don't need to argue, and am not arguing, that vaccine-based immunity is greater or better than infection-based immunity (although there is some data saying it's better). What I am arguing is that even if you have infection-based immunity you would have greater protection by also getting vaccinated.

The question is simply "Should I get vaxxed?" And the answer is always yes.

If you have not been infected, you will acquire more immunity by getting vaxxed without any of the risks associated with acquiring infection-based immunity. There may be a breakthrough case, but you will be in a substantially better position to deal with it.

If you have been infected, you will gain more immunity by getting vaxxed than you would have without the vaccine (plenty of data showing this). Additionally, many who were previously infected, were infected months if not over a year ago. Moreover, many are not certain that they got infected because they were never tested.

Ceteris paribus, given that vaccines are highly safe, and widely available, there is no reason to not get vaccinated.
Click to expand...

Plenty of data? The vaccine has been readily available for 6 months. You Will avoid any of the long term associated Covid risks? We know those long term effects after a mere 18 months? Same as we know there’s no long term vaccine effects after 6 months? Encouraging mass vaccination so he/she/non-binary individual can build the class action lawsuit 10 yrs from now for the unexpected growth of a second nose.
 
#101,318
#101,318
bamawriter said:
I'm not quite sure you can draw those conclusions, at least not with any confidence. You cannot assume that all of those with natural immunity fell into the third bucket. Some folks with natural immunity might have also been vaccinated, and some might have become reinfected and wound up hospitalized. All we know is that the remaining bucket is folks who had only one shot or perhaps had both but were still in the two week window before being considered "fully vaccinated."*

*The article uses two different terms that may or may not mean the same thing: "had both shots" and "fully vaccinated."
Click to expand...

I agree - still it doesn't make sense to conclude that of the unvaccinated in the hospital more than half would have to be reinfections (clashes with the 1.2% reinfection rate overall). The numbers 30% and 23% of hospitalized being fully vaxxed are pretty staggering and far different than what we've seen where it's in the single digits. Hard to imagine they found a higher % of that being people who have natural immunity but aren't fully vaxxed. (that would put the hospitalizations at 1/2 or over 1/2 people with natural immunity and/or fully vaxxed).
 
  • Like
Reactions: LouderVol
#101,320
#101,320
volinbham said:
I agree - still it doesn't make sense to conclude that of the unvaccinated in the hospital more than half would have to be reinfections (clashes with the 1.2% reinfection rate overall). The numbers 30% and 23% of hospitalized being fully vaxxed are pretty staggering and far different than what we've seen where it's in the single digits. Hard to imagine they found a higher % of that being people who have natural immunity but aren't fully vaxxed. (that would put the hospitalizations at 1/2 or over 1/2 people with natural immunity and/or fully vaxxed).
Click to expand...

Again, not sure I'd agree with "staggering." More than 65% of the adult population of the UK is vaccinated. Over 90% of those over 70 years old. At a certain point, the larger the percentage of a total population that is vaccinated, the larger the percentage of those infected or hospitalized that are vaccinated will have to increase. Nothing else is mathematically possible. The key is that the former percentage rises faster than the latter.

There was an article posted here about a month ago dealing with Israel's Delta cases. It read almost half of Israel's Covid infections have come from vaccinated individuals. Even if we go with the largest possible definition of "almost half," 49.9% of Delta cases coming out of more the more than 85% of Israelis that are vaccinated suggests that the vaccines are very effective at warding off infection.

I think the US is a decent case study because we are really close to 50/50 vaxxed/unvaxxed at the present time. So we can get numbers from roughly equal populations.
 
#101,321
#101,321
bamawriter said:
Again, not sure I'd agree with "staggering." More than 65% of the adult population of the UK is vaccinated. Over 90% of those over 70 years old. At a certain point, the larger the percentage of a total population that is vaccinated, the larger the percentage of those infected or hospitalized that are vaccinated will have to increase. Nothing else is mathematically possible. The key is that the former percentage rises faster than the latter.

There was an article posted here about a month ago dealing with Israel's Delta cases. It read almost half of Israel's Covid infections have come from vaccinated individuals. Even if we go with the largest possible definition of "almost half," 49.9% of Delta cases coming out of more the more than 85% of Israelis that are vaccinated suggests that the vaccines are very effective at warding off infection.

I think the US is a decent case study because we are really close to 50/50 vaxxed/unvaxxed at the present time. So we can get numbers from roughly equal populations.
Click to expand...

Another thing to consider on the natural immunity vs. vaccine immunity debate. Many of those whose bodies failed to generate a robust immune response to covid simply died. Therefore one group (the previously infected) has already had those with the weakest immune systems filtered out from it by default. In contrast, the vaccinated but not previously infected group includes lots of people with compromised immune systems.
 
  • Like
Reactions: bamawriter
#101,322
#101,322
bamawriter said:
Again, not sure I'd agree with "staggering." More than 65% of the adult population of the UK is vaccinated. Over 90% of those over 70 years old. At a certain point, the larger the percentage of a total population that is vaccinated, the larger the percentage of those infected or hospitalized that are vaccinated will have to increase. Nothing else is mathematically possible. The key is that the former percentage rises faster than the latter.

There was an article posted here about a month ago dealing with Israel's Delta cases. It read almost half of Israel's Covid infections have come from vaccinated individuals. Even if we go with the largest possible definition of "almost half," 49.9% of Delta cases coming out of more the more than 85% of Israelis that are vaccinated suggests that the vaccines are very effective at warding off infection.

I think the US is a decent case study because we are really close to 50/50 vaxxed/unvaxxed at the present time. So we can get numbers from roughly equal populations.
Click to expand...

Well if 30% of people getting hospitalized from Covid are vaxxed it does suggest that vaccines are not as effective against getting seriously ill or dying as we once believed - that's what I mean. Hospitalizations in the UK have risen from just over 300/day at the beginning of July to 900/day now and that's with a highly vaccinated population.
 
#101,323
#101,323
evillawyer said:
Another thing to consider on the natural immunity vs. vaccine immunity debate. Many of those whose bodies failed to generate a robust immune response to covid simply died. Therefore one group (the previously infected) has already had those with the weakest immune systems filtered out from it by default. In contrast, the vaccinated but not previously infected group includes lots of people with compromised immune systems.
Click to expand...

that doesn't change the risk profile for the natural immunity group though.

while I agree that the safest route is get vaxxed whether natural immunity or not, it doesn't appear we have a Covid problem with natural immunity unvaxxed people. we don't know how much additional protection vaccination adds and we have limited information on susceptibility to reinfection for natural immunity vs reinfection for natural immunity + vaccine vs infection for vaccine and no prior infection.
 
#101,324
#101,324
volinbham said:
that doesn't change the risk profile for the natural immunity group though.

while I agree that the safest route is get vaxxed whether natural immunity or not, it doesn't appear we have a Covid problem with natural immunity unvaxxed people. we don't know how much additional protection vaccination adds and we have limited information on susceptibility to reinfection for natural immunity vs reinfection for natural immunity + vaccine vs infection for vaccine and no prior infection.
Click to expand...
We need to be using the term "immunized" instead of "vaccinated".

If you've had COVID, you should be immunized and therefore no need for the vaccine.
 
  • Like
Reactions: davethevol and hog88
#101,325
#101,325
Rasputin_Vol said:
We need to be using the term "immunized" instead of "vaccinated".

If you've had COVID, you should be immunized and therefore no need for the vaccine.
Click to expand...

we just don't know that yet but I agree we haven't seen data showing how much benefit is derived from adding the vax to naturally immune.
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top