VFL-82-JP
Bleedin' Orange...
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- Jan 17, 2015
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THE reason they caught us is because we fired Phillip Fulmer. Period.Yeah, they have been creeping up on us for decades. We had a 57 game lead on them at the end of the 1971 season and since the sport fully integrated the next year and demographics gave them a big recruiting edge, they have made up 58 games on us. Would have probably have caught us sooner if not for the 90's when we beat them back some.
You say they were 57 games behind us after 1971. They only made up 4 games between then and the end of Fulmer's tenure in 2008: they were still 53 games back at that point. Four game delta over 37 years. That wasn't a slow creep, it was glacial, practically non-existent.
Then we gave up that entire 53-win lead between '09 and last season, just 14 years. Our Dark Ages (plus Josh Heupel's first two seasons at the very end).
If we had avoided the Dark Ages (by whatever means, I would've supported giving Fulmer a one-year sabbatical, but not specifying that way, it could've been a far better series of hires than Kiffin-Dooley-Jones-Pruitt, whatever), we'd still be far ahead of UGa. Even with their Kirby Smart resurgence. Here's the math to prove it:
Georgia won 145 games between 2009 and 2022. Tennessee won only 91 (-54 off UGa). That was, for the Vols, a .523 win rate.
If we had continued to win at Fulmer's rate, .745, we would have gathered 130 Ws in that time. Only giving up 15 of our 53-win lead.
We would still be ahead of UGa by 38 wins, and ahead of USCw by 39.
And for the Fulmer haters who believe the man could never amount to anything except with David Cutcliffe holding his hand, even the Cutcliffe-less Fulmer went .667 (the years '99 to '05, and '08). At a .667 clip, we would've won 116 games in the same period UGa was winning 145. That's a 29-game deficit, sure, but with a lead at the time of 53 games, we'd still been comfortably ahead of the Dawgs by 24 wins.
In short: don't fire Fulmer, or make better hiring decisions if you do fire him, and the Vols would still be well ahead of USCw and UGa, and would have Josh Heupel in position to leapfrog Nebraska.
Go Vols!