To get this out of the way: First off, TLDR. Second off, "Gruden isn't coming". There, I know both will be said, but Hell, at least I said 'em first. Cool points for me :thumbsup:
Now, I'm not an "OG." I don't have inside sources. In fact, I take folks with "inside sources" on online forums about as seriously as I take the likelihood of my life changing based off what the note says when I break open a fortune cookie.
That being said - I'm not new to football. I'm not new to following big stories. And I'm not gullible.
To preface this. When I say "fact" - I mean the closest interpretation of factual content, that I, and you, as a reader in an online forum, can gather at this exact moment. They could turn out to be false, in retrospect, but in no way will I serve up simple conjecture as fact. Case in point - I believe a lot of what the OG's have said, but I will not state their "leaks" as fact. Facts need backup. Names, credibility, something to weigh them against. Very few "facts" have come out of this, to this point. With that being said - let's move forward.
First off, the biggest fact in this whole ordeal is this: This is the biggest move in the NCAA's history. Gruden, believe in him as a potential college coach or not, has already developed a legacy. A superbowl ring - coaching said team against a team he built in the championship game, greeting folks every Monday Night with educational, yet entertaining, analysis of the sport we love so much. He's a lovable character, no doubt. Yet, he has a deep-seeded passion for the game.
He also has ties to Knoxville. His wife, as we all know, was a cheerleader here. He was a GA, his first professional coaching job. Also, he plays golf with one of the biggest boosters to our program. These aren't small ties, nor are they fiction. These are all stone cold truths. (Cue Steve Austin? :lol
Secondly, in regards to our pursuit of Jon Gruden, the closest thing to fact is the report of Stephen Hargis from the Times Free Press. Those of you who doubt this man, or his credentials, need to do a bit of research. In addition to his article about the Gruden situation, I also personally listened to 4 interviews the next day. He didn't waiver an inch in his stance. This was after LaMonte's statement, after Hyam tried to kill the notion, and after other, vague "kill" stories came out to try and directly make him look like an idiot. He put his 23 year career on the line for this story, with verified sources, and I have no doubt that he was telling the truth.
Final truth: We have been in serious contract negotiations with Jon Gruden.
Now, swallow that for a second. Think about it. The biggest hire in NCAA history, and our team - the University of Tennessee, has been trying to make it happen. Doesn't that make you proud, if nothing else? At least we're going for it.
Moving on, and entering the "opinion" category:
It's a done deal. We have him, have had him, and anything we've heard since Dooley was fired has been a calculated, intentional distraction to bide time for a drop-date for Volunteer sports to celebrate it's biggest "win" since intercepting Florida State in the final minutes of the championship game.
For those of you who have followed the Gruden threads, up to a whopping 14 right now, if you've been there from the getgo - you've seen some things play out that were eerily similar to what "insiders" had suggested would happen. Actually, forget similar. Damn near-verbatim would be better terminology. The money issue....boom fixed, as predicted. The Haslam/Petyon backing - boom, on 11/18, Haslam was quoted as saying Gruden would be a "good fit" for the coaching position.
....
They also, verbatim said, that money for his assistant coaches would be very, very high, and at the last moment things would look extremely bleak, then magically take a turn for the better - with Hart "rushing in to save the day."
Now....I don't know what happened between their own stated opinions playing out the way they thought they would, and the sudden magical emergence of pretty much every OG stating the Gruden deal was dead and over, but sometime around 10 PM Central time on 11/29/2012, hours before the Chattanooga article was about to hit online, Liper, who has been a member for forever, hit the threads stating he'd gotten some weird, potentially bothersome news. He asked around for any other "insiders" to verify his intel. No one responded, some folks got worried, but then, boom - Hargis's article leaked. DONE DEAL, said Volnation. Fireworks went off, big breasted women were linked, men/women of questionable sexual genders were linked....you get the deal. All was great in Volunteer land. Until...
The next morning...
While Vol-land is drinking, calling in sick to work, and generally partying our ass off like LMFAO had hand-written a song for us, Liper's apparent bothersome news hit. Denials from the AD. Craziness that we'd actually be that close to Gruden. There's no way! Proclaimed every media outlet in Knoxville...LaMonte releases a statement that causes Volnation to make sure they have a reasonable copay on their therapist insurance. What went from being a done deal hours earlier, is now dead on arrival. Shut down, shot down, and we have mud on our faces for even thinking we had a chance.
Since then, it's only amplified. Anyone thinking Gruden is still in play is basically pegged as an idiot. Hargis's article, though he's FAR AND AWAY the most credible voice on the situation with factual sources is immediately discredited, we have multiple releases from the AD, though unnamed, saying Gruden isn't on the table anymore, and we have, seriously, five zillion reports about interviewing Fisher, Strong, Fedora, Santa Clause - even though when they get reported they're refuted almost instantaneously the second they're released.
Now.
Here's where I stand.
Hargis was on to something big. He's not from Knoxville, thus he couldn't be controlled. We were, and are, still in fact talking with/negotiating with Jon Gruden. If you haven't, read his initial article here:
Former Super Bowl winner Gruden mulls Tennessee Vols' offer | timesfreepress.com
All of the Knoxville media scoffed at the idea Gruden was actually in play. Laughed at the fanbase, threw out mediocre names to try and appease us, and denied any sort of legitimate interest between the two parties. That was, until this story was about to break.
The news of this story coming out was out there. All of a sudden, while the Gruden issue had been a joke before, Knoxville news breaks that a potential meeting between us and him had been cancelled when it wasn't even a possibility before. Fishy? Yes, but it's still bad news. We get upset, wondering why. Tony B's cohost knew about this story leaking, tweeted for Vols fans to look out for it later Thursday night, then immediately deleted his tweet (probably after getting word that a ****storm was about to brew). We're all left hanging in the wind, not knowing what in the blue Hell is going on with our coaching search, of which we have no knowledge of us even looking at any coaches while other teams are.
Thursday night, after the story hits, we've all convinced ourselves that Gruden is a done deal. Folks with bets start paying out money. Heads are probably shaved. Then....mere hours later, it's dead.
To the best of my deductive knowledge - here's what happened.
Jon Gruden has a commitment to ESPN. He's said it, his agent's said it, and if you know anything about Gruden, you know it's probably true. He's signed on to an extension through 2016 with ESPN, but it's very likely there are "outs" in that contract if he pursues a head coaching gig. To mine, and a few other's knowledge, ESPN still owes Gruden 1.1 million dollars for the remainder of this MNF schedule. Like players, they get paid "by the game." If he were to walk out, that's a million dollars wasted. Don't be naive to act like that amount of money doesn't matter, especially to a man that found himself fired 4 years ago.
Secondly, if it appears that he's operated beyond the good faith arrangement in his contract, pursuing outside employment while still collecting his paychecks - he could very likely find himself in breach of contract, out of the money he is owed, and muddied up by the negative press ESPN could bring (and maybe would) in frustration that they'd lost one of their hottest new commodities.
It's in my firm opinion that Volsnations insiders, and Stephen Hargis, got too close to this story. In this day, nothing can be trusted in a hire this big. If you tell your dog what's going on, she'll be on an iPad 10 minutes later barking over Skype to the local pound, which will spread to twitter, to the forums, etc, etc, etc. You get it. Nothing is sacred in newsbreaking anymore. Very, very few folks are actually privy to what goes on in these high-end deals towards the final stages. While I trust and respect what the OGs brought to the table, I think it simply got too close to the truth, and Hargis's article made everything a headline.
It had to be shut down.
Hence the "all of a sudden" knowledgeable Knoxville media on the Gruden angle who had been clueless about any possibility merely days before. Hence the emergence of all these "coaching searches" that we hadn't heard hide nor hair of days before, yet all seem to get refuted when people directly question the coach. Hence, the release of Gruden's agent, LaMonte about the "fantasy land" we're living in with Gruden. If you read Hargis's article closely, he never says we've been in contact with LaMonte - just Gruden, hence giving both an "out" that they hadn't breached a good faith portion of a contract that Jon's currently signed under.
It got too hot, plain and simple. Hargis was about to scoop the homerun story of his, or really any journalists career, and (in my opinion) this had to have leaked out. This story would put Gruden and UT on the hotseat and a deal would have to be worked out immediately to appease the (natural) fan frenzy. Hargis fact checked it, had his editor verify it, and it ended up on the front page of the newspaper. Tell me, does that sound like a made up story to you? A reporter of 23 years? However, in his delay to verify his information, it must've gotten out that it was about to hit. Hence the "hangup" in his article between Gruden and his assistant coaches. It would have cost him 1.1 million dollars had they not raced to throw some sort of "bull**** factor" into this story. There's no doubt in my mind that the AD and Gruden got wind that this story was breaking and threw some kind of monkey wrench in the whole thing to look like either a deal wasn't taking place or that it wasn't nearly as "done" as he was about to admit. I mean, really, what kind of inept department would let an assistant coaching staff salary dictate whether they hired the biggest name in NCAA history? It doesn't make sense.
Yet, he had to go with what he heard. He had to include that - the AD and Gruden had to distance themselves from the deal to make it look like it had:
1) Never come close to happening.
2.) Had maybe come close but fell apart.
3.) Jon's only focused on ESPN right now, nothing else matters.
As fans, and readers, we got a little bit of all of the above - which didn't, nor shouldn't make sense to any of us, unless you follow the narrative I've painted above.
This deal, in my (maybe notso) humble opinion is happening, and has happened for awhile now. Follow the money, follow the non-denials from Hart, Gruden, or a Haslem. All we've heard "officially" are from contradictory sources who didn't know ANYTHING the day before, have a terrible track record, or are from an agent who would lose his client 1.1 million dollars if he pretended anything legit had been taking place up to that point.
Gruden is coming folks. Read between the lines, stop jumping all over every tweet that has a coaches name in it, and most importantly - use some common sense when you decide who you want to trust in all this.
We have one guy who's vetted his 23 year career on the line for the authenticity of his story versus multiple Knoxville folks who have about as much authenticity as the Babe Ruth signed baseball mitt I just bought off eBay for 12 dollars.
Think about it :hi:
