OK, tell me what your thoughts are, if it is more than the -1 t0 .9999. I guess I'm interested in those specific actions that could be interpreted as being close to a -1.
Having just watched all of Mueller's statement today, the only thing that is really clear is that he wants to be done with all this, doesn't want to appear before Congress and does not want to talk further about this investigation. "The investigation is my testimony."
If the House of Representatives moves forward with impeachment proceedings, don't you think that there is a good chance that Mueller will be called as a witness? If that is the case, Mueller's wish to be a hermit has as much chance as luther wearing a MAGA hat because he supports Trump's reelection.
Inferences:
If they thought there was insufficient evidence for a charge, then they would have said so. Like they did in Volume I. That means at least one charge meets the probable cause threshold. In layman’s terms, probable cause would be reasonably credible evidence that satisfies all elements of a crime. On the scale, probable cause is -.51.
I think you can perhaps infer and even higher degree of certainty, as I think a completed investigation raises the burden for bringing a charge. All prosecutors know they can indict you at probable cause, but a good prosecutor knows it’s irresponsible to indict someone if there is no hope of a conviction.
Opinions:
So what are the Instances of conduct that might rise to that level of probability?
Tier 1
1. Instructing McGahn to fire Mueller.
2. Attempts to get Sessions to limit the scope of the investigation.
3. Public statements that can be read as enticing Manafort not to cooperate.
4. Public statements to and about Flynn effectively doing the same.
5. Public statements towards Cohen.
Tier 2:
6. Asking Comey to let Flynn go.
7. Firing Comey
That said, as I’ve noted before, all of this occurred while Trump was president. Arguably, the law does not even apply to 1, 2, 6, or 7 because there is no clear statement of applicability to the President.
In terms of most likely to result in a criminal conviction, I would choose #3. I give 1 and 2 top billing because this is not a criminal court case and I thought they were the most worthy of impeachment.
If you think about it, the Mueller report is essentially a grand jury presentation. His Grand Jury is the House of Representatives.
