NCAA Tourney Running Thread

#1,477
#1,477
MemphisCanes said:
Kenpom can't measure half-court efficiency.

I'm not talking about odds in the finals, I'm talking about odds to win the championship, which means winning the next two games. I'm no statustician, but I'd put the odds at:

Kentucky -35%
Ohio State-30%
Kansas-20%
Louisville-15%

In other words, a 65% chance Kentucky DOESN'T win the championship game, as of right now.
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Kentucky-- 50%
Ohio State--25%
Kansas --15%
Louisville--10%
 
#1,479
#1,479
MemphisCanes said:
I think that still overstates UK's chances, but it may be close. Still, a coin flip. 50% chance they don't win.
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Here is my math: UK has a 75% chance of beating Louisville. They have a 60% chance of playing OSU and if they do they have a 60% chance of winning. If they play Kansas (40% chance) they have a 75% chance of winning. Taking Kansas and OSU together they have a 2/3 chance of winning the NC if they get there. 3/4 (chance of beating Louisville) * 2/3 (chance in NC) = .5 or 50%

My other pervcents are slightly off. I think Louisville has a 25% chance of getting past the Cats. If they are good enough to do that, I give them a 50% chance of beating OSU or Kansas =12.5%.

OSU has a 60% chance of beating Kansas. If they do that they have a 40% chance of beating KY and there is a 75% chance they will play them. They have a 50% chance of beating Louisville with a 25% chance of playing them. They thus have a 42.% chance of winning the NC if they get there (60% chance): .6 * .425 = .255. or 25.5%.

Add 25.5 (OSU) + 12.5 (UL) + 50 (UK) = 88. This leaves Kansas with a 12 % chance of winning the NC. I just do not like the way they match up against KY which is why it is so low.

So I actually want to slightly revise my ballpark figures above. I actually give Kansas a slightly lower chance than Louisville to win the NC.
 
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#1,481
#1,481
volinbham said:
Same with an OSU/UK final with UK winning. I'm in second in one tourney and third in the other but my best finish would be 2nd in both
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Wow, we picked the same Final 4 and Finals. I think I will win my office pool of only 20 entrants. No biggie.
 
#1,484
#1,484
Question I googled but could not answer. Is 128 the most combined wins in Final Four history?

What is the mostst combine losses? Least? I doubt it is this year. There are 24. Last year I read there were 37.
 
#1,485
#1,485
WesternKyVol said:
Question I googled but could not answer. Is 128 the most combined wins in Final Four history?

What is the mostst combine losses? Least? I doubt it is this year. There are 24. Last year I read there were 37.
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2008 definitely has that beat. 143 combined wins.
 
#1,487
#1,487
WesternKyVol said:
Here is my math: UK has a 75% chance of beating Louisville. They have a 60% chance of playing OSU and if they do they have a 60% chance of winning. If they play Kansas (40% chance) they have a 75% chance of winning. Taking Kansas and OSU together they have a 2/3 chance of winning the NC if they get there. 3/4 (chance of beating Louisville) * 2/3 (chance in NC) = .5 or 50%

My other pervcents are slightly off. I think Louisville has a 25% chance of getting past the Cats. If they are good enough to do that, I give them a 50% chance of beating OSU or Kansas =12.5%.

OSU has a 60% chance of beating Kansas. If they do that they have a 40% chance of beating KY and there is a 75% chance they will play them. They have a 50% chance of beating Louisville with a 25% chance of playing them. They thus have a 42.% chance of winning the NC if they get there (60% chance): .6 * .425 = .255. or 25.5%.

Add 25.5 (OSU) + 12.5 (UL) + 50 (UK) = 88. This leaves Kansas with a 12 % chance of winning the NC. I just do not like the way they match up against KY which is why it is so low.

So I actually want to slightly revise my ballpark figures above. I actually give Kansas a slightly lower chance than Louisville to win the NC.
Click to expand...

A better equation for UK, using your game-by-game probabilities, would be (.75 x (.60 x .60)) + (.75 x (.40 x .75)) = .27 + .225 = .495. Well, now that I've worked it out, 50% is about right. :)
 
#1,493
#1,493
Does it make me a bad person to admit that I'll celebrate Louisville moving on to the final tomorrow only slightly less than I'd celebrate Memphis moving on?
 
#1,494
#1,494
MemphisCanes said:
Does it make me a bad person to admit that I'll celebrate Louisville moving on to the final tomorrow only slightly less than I'd celebrate Memphis moving on?
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Nope, it just makes you a hater. And EVERYONE has sports hate. I purchased Morehead State apparel and put it on every chance I got when Louisville fans were around. It's what makes sports so much fun.

On a side note, If UL wins, I hate you.
 
#1,496
#1,496
Hardwood_fanatic said:
Nope, it just makes you a hater. And EVERYONE has sports hate. I purchased Morehead State apparel and put it on every chance I got when Louisville fans were around. It's what makes sports so much fun.

On a side note, If UL wins, I hate you.
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I don't hate kentucky or Cal. In my mind, it wouldn't matter if this was Kentucky, or UNC (playing Duke), or UConn (playing Cuse), or UCLA (playing Arizona).

This has the making to one of the best upset stories in the last decade. If Kentucky wins, it's a non-issue, they were supposed to. If UL wins, there are so many story lines:

- Pitino over Cal, again.
- UL, a huge underdog, upsets the odds on favorite.
- Cal loses 3 years running to Big East tourney champ in the NCAA tournament.

It's just too awesome not to root for. I'm pretty sure every non-UK fan is rooting for this, just for the pure awesomeness.
 
#1,497
#1,497
Going to be a slobber knocker that's for sure. I think it will be interesting to see how closely the game is called. If tick-tack fouls are assessed then it favors UK. Letting them play favors Dieng and Louisville.
 
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