Would personally like to see North Carolina & Virginia added if we went to 18. If 20, I guess we could throw in FSU & Clemson. ND to the BIG10, along with any decent ACC leftovers.
We’re probably looking at a type of SEC/ACC & BIG 10/ PAC-12 merger in the near future to break away from the NCAA. At the very least, only the SEC, BIG10 & PAC12 will survive realignment.
Many schools will be left holding the bag, especially smaller, private schools, which is the weakness of the ACC.
I believe the ACC will be in trouble as the super-conferences take form. The ACC has 5 private schools in Duke, Wake Forest, Boston College, Syracuse, and Miami. Only Miami is of any brand value out of that group with regards to football. 35% of their conference is comprised of these private universities. Contrast with the SEC, which only has Vanderbilt, 6% (after adding Texas and Oklahoma).
The ACC has NC, NCState, Duke, and Wake Forest all in one state, with only the Tar Heels of any football brand worth. This hurts TV market contracts due to such overlap.
Two teams in Virginia with UVA & VTech. Two teams in Florida with FSU & Miami.
Thus, the ACC has 14 teams in 9 states, with 4 in one state and another 4 in two other states. This means that nearly 60% of their conference universities reside in 30% of their geographic footprint by state. Contrast with the SEC, which has no more than 2 teams per state (UT/Vandy, Bama/Auburn, Ole Miss/Miss St, and soon Texas/A&M), a 12-state geographic footprint, a 50% to 25% ratio of teams to states redundancy, but also with more culturally “college-football-minded” populations and better brands.
Not only that, but 4/9 of ACC states already have SEC football presence, which is by far the bigger draw with the exception of Clemson over South Carolina. UK> UL, UGA>GT, UF>FSU, UM.
They have no great addition prospects outside of Notre Dame, but will the Irish save them? The BIG10 has a more lucrative TV contract, better football brands, and is closer geographically for the Golden Domers. Not to mention historical rivalries with Michigan and others. I find the BIG10 a more likely landing spot when it all shakes out, despite closer ties with the ACC in recent history. WVU will not move the needle much due to no desirability in TV contracts and average brand value.
The ACC also has no real expansion territory to gain, as they are walled-in by the SEC & BIG10. The SEC expanded westward, as may the BIG10. The PAC will expand eastward. The ACC has nowhere to go to add new teams. The SEC, BIG10, and PAC will grow, but the ACC will stagnate.
Thus, the long-term benefit of the top ACC teams (whether by brand or TV contract value) would be to flee to the SEC. Clemson, FSU, UNC, Virginia, and Miami would best serve themselves by trying to jump ship right now.
From the SEC perspective: UNC brings a new market plus a good brand in football (and absolute blue-blood in basketball). UVA brings a high-prestige flagship university with the DC market (and a good basketball program). To me, FSU, Miami, and Clemson are rather redundant in this conference. However, if 20 is the magic number, then UNC, UVA, Clemson, and FSU are the way to go. VT is a decent brand, but UVA is much more desirable between the two.
This obliterates a regional conference rival, consolidates TV markets and contract money, and prevents other conferences from substantially encroaching on SEC territory. It completely nukes any competition from the BIG10 & PAC for complete supremacy.
TL;DR: After the BIGXII implodes, the ACC will be next to fall. SEC adds UNC, UVA, FSU, and Clemson to propel college football into the era of the super-conference.