New York City

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"Urban Doom Loops"

Liberal sheithole cities gonna get worse and worse. Sadly this just means that those who arent 100% living off handouts and dependent on public transport like city buses and subways will invade the suburbs and then rural areas with their garbage politics, garbage culture, and...garbage.

TL; DW : So many folks now work from home rather than in office buildings that commercial real estate is absolutely tanking in US cities....the vast majority of which still hasnt "hit the fan" yet because banks own all that debt and not individuals....so they just keep kicking those bad loans for billions and billions down the road rather than taking the huge losses. The buildings are still empty though...so its only a matter of time. As each fails, huge property tax sums leave city budgets...plus the already lost tax revenue from not having bustling businesses and workers in them each day...so theres a domino effect as the restaurants, bars, couriers, stores etc in those areas also go out of business because theres nobody working there anymore that needs to eat etc. Then comes big cuts in city services such as police, trash collection, fire depts etc....quality of life gets so bad that anyone who can possibly afford to leaves (see: NYC, SF, etc) all these liberals leaving will further wreck these cities as apartments and homes start to empty....its a downward spiral with no end in sight.

The question is whether:

1. The endgame is banks take a beating which causes a serious drag on the economy OR

2. This crap is bad enough that the banks once AGAIN cause a full on meltdown recession like they did in 2008 which wrecks everyone EXCEPT FOR THEM DAMNIT. Where the stock market tanks and all of our life savings 401ks take absolute beatings while these banks get bailed out by the Feds and go right back to their fractional reserve lending practices in which they can simply print 10x as much digital $$$ as they actually have in real deposits....with zero risk whatsoever because theyre "too big to fail." So all of us American citizens lose a huge chunk of what we have worked our entire lives to save....and the banks lose NOTHING while their CEOs take multi-million dollar bonuses each year or retire with "Golden Parachutes " of millions and millions.

These mòfos should be drawn and quartered in the city square if 2008 is allowed to happen again. The founders of this Nation would have never let that BS happen last time. They would have been stacking bodies. Nobody even went to jail for 2008. Complete BS.

If you go to your neighbors house and steal $1000 from him...youre a convicted felon and go to prison. But steal millions and millions for your company in profits while causing Billions of dollars worth of damage to nearly all Americans?? Wreck their retirements and in some cases the pensions of thousands of employees? No problem. Never even get charged with a crime. Its sick what banks are allowed to do in this country.
 
#2,012
#2,012
marcusluvsvols said:


"Urban Doom Loops"

Liberal sheithole cities gonna get worse and worse. Sadly this just means that those who arent 100% living off handouts and dependent on public transport like city buses and subways will invade the suburbs and then rural areas with their garbage politics, garbage culture, and...garbage.

TL; DW : So many folks now work from home rather than in office buildings that commercial real estate is absolutely tanking in US cities....the vast majority of which still hasnt "hit the fan" yet because banks own all that debt and not individuals....so they just keep kicking those bad loans for billions and billions down the road rather than taking the huge losses. The buildings are still empty though...so its only a matter of time. As each fails, huge property tax sums leave city budgets...plus the already lost tax revenue from not having bustling businesses and workers in them each day...so theres a domino effect as the restaurants, bars, couriers, stores etc in those areas also go out of business because theres nobody working there anymore that needs to eat etc. Then comes big cuts in city services such as police, trash collection, fire depts etc....quality of life gets so bad that anyone who can possibly afford to leaves (see: NYC, SF, etc) all these liberals leaving will further wreck these cities as apartments and homes start to empty....its a downward spiral with no end in sight.

The question is whether:

1. The endgame is banks take a beating which causes a serious drag on the economy OR

2. This crap is bad enough that the banks once AGAIN cause a full on meltdown recession like they did in 2008 which wrecks everyone EXCEPT FOR THEM DAMNIT. Where the stock market tanks and all of our life savings 401ks take absolute beatings while these banks get bailed out by the Feds and go right back to their fractional reserve lending practices in which they can simply print 10x as much digital $$$ as they actually have in real deposits....with zero risk whatsoever because theyre "too big to fail." So all of us American citizens lose a huge chunk of what we have worked our entire lives to save....and the banks lose NOTHING while their CEOs take multi-million dollar bonuses each year or retire with "Golden Parachutes " of millions and millions.

These mòfos should be drawn and quartered in the city square if 2008 is allowed to happen again. The founders of this Nation would have never let that BS happen last time. They would have been stacking bodies. Nobody even went to jail for 2008. Complete BS.

If you go to your neighbors house and steal $1000 from him...youre a convicted felon and go to prison. But steal millions and millions for your company in profits while causing Billions of dollars worth of damage to nearly all Americans?? Wreck their retirements and in some cases the pensions of thousands of employees? No problem. Never even get charged with a crime. Its sick what banks are allowed to do in this country.
Click to expand...

there was a lot of unsustainable growth going on. The economy was/is predicated on an ever growing market, especially the construction industry. Even before WFH the actual demands for office space were already going down. but what you had was new offices coming up, and companies moving from an old location to a new; and then the older property fell on the way side. The growth wasn't "need" based as much as it was "wants" based. which is fine as long as it keeps moving you can keep the numbers working in your favor.

in particular office spaces were designed for what the "movement" *instead of growth* was projected to be 18months/2 years down the road for small build outs, and 5+ years for entire new sky scrapers. and that only assumed continual growth made possible by the fractional banking. the reason they plan for that long out is because thats how long it takes for them to design, permit, and build a project. so what is happening is that ALL that speculative building is now running into the post-Covid recession, and new projects are not getting off the ground. and without the next new project the banks don't have something to balance their fractional banking, and they are holding a lot of empty money they shouldn't have approved in the first place. but again because the system is built on continuous growth, you couldn't slow down, only speed up. its why Trump never did incremental rate increases, and we get the Bideneconomic response.

one issue with the assumptions is that residential is still in huge demand, we are still at a huge deficit of residential homes. and that actual growth was influencing other markets falsely(commercial/office), but the actual growth in those markets didn't match the residential growth as it had in the past. then you throw in the WFH dynamic and suddenly the "movement" in office spaces, goes negative. and you pair that with all the speculative building, and you go from a system where you are keeping pace, but still behind to maintain high prices, to a system where you are losing ground as prices continue to rise.
 
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#2,013
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LouderVol said:
there was a lot of unsustainable growth going on. The economy was/is predicated on an ever growing market, especially the construction industry. Even before WFH the actual demands for office space were already going down. but what you had was new offices coming up, and companies moving from an old location to a new; and then the older property fell on the way side. The growth wasn't "need" based as much as it was "wants" based. which is fine as long as it keeps moving you can keep the numbers working in your favor.

in particular office spaces were designed for what the "movement" *instead of growth* was projected to be 18months/2 years down the road for small build outs, and 5+ years for entire new sky scrapers. and that only assumed continual growth made possible by the fractional banking. the reason they plan for that long out is because thats how long it takes for them to design, permit, and build a project. so what is happening is that ALL that speculative building is now running into the post-Covid recession, and new projects are not getting off the ground. and without the next new project the banks don't have something to balance their fractional banking, and they are holding a lot of empty money they shouldn't have approved in the first place. but again because the system is built on continuous growth, you couldn't slow down, only speed up. its why Trump never did incremental rate increases, and we get the Bideneconomic response.

one issue with the assumptions is that residential is still in huge demand, we are still at a huge deficit of residential homes. and that actual growth was influencing other markets falsely(commercial/office), but the actual growth in those markets didn't match the residential growth as it had in the past. then you throw in the WFH dynamic and suddenly the "movement" in office spaces, goes negative. and you pair that with all the speculative building, and you go from a system where you are keeping pace, but still behind to maintain high prices, to a system where you are losing ground as prices continue to rise.
Click to expand...


Good post and all this is true. It spells absolute doom for commercial real-estate though...and the financial products called REITs should follow suit probably in the NYSE...which they used to pay the best dividends from my limited understanding of the stock market.

Residential has its own problems though...even in boomtown like Charlotte and Raleigh NC, Austin TX, Nashville TN etc where growth has never really slowed (the very few cities that havent) property values are SO ridiculously overpriced that very few people can afford to buy a home. The Natl Realtors Assoc says the average house in Charlotte is overpriced by $110,000 over its actual value...tract quality housing is around $200 to $250 per sf depending on location. Its insanity. These are top 20 fastest growing cities in the US and sales have still slowed greatly. My wife is a realtor....theres very little inventory here in Charlotte because nobody can afford to build when entry level "1st home" tract houses are $250k and up on the bad side of town and interest rates arent near zero anymore. People are afraid to sell and cash in the hundred(s) they have in equity due to the overpricing....because they cant afford to buy a different house in the same market. The homes that ARE on the market sell almost instantly though with people who actually get the house offering crazy stuff like "asking plus 10% and buyer pays closing costs". Its insane man. People lost their damn minds when interest rates were so low and now houses are priced so artificially high that the mortgage payments are astronomical now that interest rates are back near historical norms. What do you do like my son who is a college grad making decent money...but the same starter house that his parents bought starting out now costs literally 2x as much minimum....but wages have only increased maybe 20% max over the same time period? You dont own a home til you're 35 or 40 maybe i guess? IF you save diligently and invest wisely etc.

So what happens to the country when this is commonplace everywhere? When almost nobody in his generation can own a home until 20 years later in life than their parents...if ever? What is THAT gonna do to the economy over time? Residential will slow to a crawl eventually. It already has in a lot of markets. People who bought homes at outrageous prices during the pandemic have seen their homes actually LOSE value already....with the worst yet to come. What happens when many folks are $100k upside down in their houses and start to buckle under the weight of those mortgage payments? I dont pretend to have the answers. I dont care about myself....but I worry for my kids. In so many ways. We have elected politicians and STILL DO EVERY TIME from both halves of the Uniparty that continue to spend more $$$$ than they take in despite already exorbitant taxes. THAT is the root cause of 99% of the things we should be worried about. My family has been responsible with our money. We dont live beyond our means. We make sacrifices today in hopes of a better future for our kids. We dont buy fancy things.

What the Hell does our government do? The EXACT OPPOSITE of that. They spend more than they have at every single turn and wreck the future of our children. We need to throw every single one of them out on their asses. All of them. Pass new laws that say unless we are stuck in an existential war for our country....as in we are attacked by an adversary....it should be 100% illegal for any federal or state government to spend more money than they take in. Any year. Every year. Why do we continue to allow them to spend our kids futures on their pet projects that WE never even voted on so THEY can personally become millionaires??? How much longer will we let this BS continue?
 
#2,014
#2,014
CobbVol said:
"Until [President] Biden reverses course on his open border policies, Texas will continue transporting migrants to these cities," he said. "We will not back down on our efforts to secure the border."

www.foxnews.com

NYC high school students forced into remote learning as 2,000 migrants sheltered in school instead

Students at an NYC high school will be forced into remote learning as nearly 2,000 migrants stay there after they were moved from their migrant shelter due to incoming storms.
www.foxnews.com www.foxnews.com

Click to expand...

Texas doesn't want an immigration slow down. Well the elected leaders don't that's for sure
 
#2,016
#2,016

NYC Council Rejects Mayor Eric Adams’ veto on Controversial NYPD Bill That Will Force Cops To Document Nearly Every Public Interaction​


NYPD cops will be forced to report on even their most minor interactions with the public after the City Council on Tuesday overwhelmingly rejected Mayor Eric Adams’ veto of the “How Many Stops Act’’ — which he and other critics argued would threaten public safety.

The Democrat-led council also voted to override Adams’ veto of another bill banning solitary confinement in Big Apple jails.

“These bills will make New Yorkers less safe on the streets, while police officers are forced to fill out additional paperwork rather than focus on helping New Yorkers and strengthening community bonds,” Adams said in a statement after the vote.

“Additionally, it will make staff in our jails and those in our custody less safe by impairing our ability to hold those who commit violent acts accountable.”

https://nypost.com/2024/01/30/metro/nyc-council-overrides-mayor-adams-veto-on-cop-stops-bill/#
Under the NYPD bill, officers will have to record the “apparent” race, gender and age of nearly every person they question — even someone who could just be a potential witness to a crime, or other of the lowest-level encounters.

“Today’s over-ride is one more step toward the city council goal: destroy the world’s best police department,” NYPD Detectives Endowment Association President Paul DiGiacomo said. “Thanks to the politicians the divide between the police and citizens will grow. And so will retirements of our best most experienced detectives. Heartbreaking.”

https://nypost.com/2024/01/30/metro/nyc-council-overrides-mayor-adams-veto-on-cop-stops-bill/#
nypost.com

NYC Council rejects Mayor Eric Adams’ veto on controversial NYPD bill that will force cops to document nearly every public interaction

The New York City Council overwhelmingly voted Tuesday to override Mayor Eric Adams’ veto of the controversial cop stops bill that will now force NYPD officers to document nearly every intera…
nypost.com nypost.com
 
#2,017
#2,017
marcusluvsvols said:
Good post and all this is true. It spells absolute doom for commercial real-estate though...and the financial products called REITs should follow suit probably in the NYSE...which they used to pay the best dividends from my limited understanding of the stock market.

Residential has its own problems though...even in boomtown like Charlotte and Raleigh NC, Austin TX, Nashville TN etc where growth has never really slowed (the very few cities that havent) property values are SO ridiculously overpriced that very few people can afford to buy a home. The Natl Realtors Assoc says the average house in Charlotte is overpriced by $110,000 over its actual value...tract quality housing is around $200 to $250 per sf depending on location. Its insanity. These are top 20 fastest growing cities in the US and sales have still slowed greatly. My wife is a realtor....theres very little inventory here in Charlotte because nobody can afford to build when entry level "1st home" tract houses are $250k and up on the bad side of town and interest rates arent near zero anymore. People are afraid to sell and cash in the hundred(s) they have in equity due to the overpricing....because they cant afford to buy a different house in the same market. The homes that ARE on the market sell almost instantly though with people who actually get the house offering crazy stuff like "asking plus 10% and buyer pays closing costs". Its insane man. People lost their damn minds when interest rates were so low and now houses are priced so artificially high that the mortgage payments are astronomical now that interest rates are back near historical norms. What do you do like my son who is a college grad making decent money...but the same starter house that his parents bought starting out now costs literally 2x as much minimum....but wages have only increased maybe 20% max over the same time period? You dont own a home til you're 35 or 40 maybe i guess? IF you save diligently and invest wisely etc.

So what happens to the country when this is commonplace everywhere? When almost nobody in his generation can own a home until 20 years later in life than their parents...if ever? What is THAT gonna do to the economy over time? Residential will slow to a crawl eventually. It already has in a lot of markets. People who bought homes at outrageous prices during the pandemic have seen their homes actually LOSE value already....with the worst yet to come. What happens when many folks are $100k upside down in their houses and start to buckle under the weight of those mortgage payments? I dont pretend to have the answers. I dont care about myself....but I worry for my kids. In so many ways. We have elected politicians and STILL DO EVERY TIME from both halves of the Uniparty that continue to spend more $$$$ than they take in despite already exorbitant taxes. THAT is the root cause of 99% of the things we should be worried about. My family has been responsible with our money. We dont live beyond our means. We make sacrifices today in hopes of a better future for our kids. We dont buy fancy things.

What the Hell does our government do? The EXACT OPPOSITE of that. They spend more than they have at every single turn and wreck the future of our children. We need to throw every single one of them out on their asses. All of them. Pass new laws that say unless we are stuck in an existential war for our country....as in we are attacked by an adversary....it should be 100% illegal for any federal or state government to spend more money than they take in. Any year. Every year. Why do we continue to allow them to spend our kids futures on their pet projects that WE never even voted on so THEY can personally become millionaires??? How much longer will we let this BS continue?
Click to expand...
this is exactly what I did. I am 34 and just bought my first house. saved up for more than 10 years to be able to afford it. people my age and a little younger were hosed. we had no money when things were cheap, but now that we have money things are very expensive. thankfully I was able to get my house before things got to their worse. very very lucky. at least in the market I was in prices were steady but houses were selling almost instantly, and I somehow found a unicorn that had been on the market for 6 months. It had some issues but because I had money saved I could afford to get them fixed. Asbestos, gas leak, cracked retaining wall, basement floods. but no structural damage. my knowledge as an architect let me know it was relatively easily fixable, and my willingness to do what I can has solved several other smaller issues.

I had to get used to living well below my pay in order to be able to save enough. and my cousin has lived with me for a while and pays me rent, which also helps. the key for me was to find an area that wasn't yet developed but there wasn't anything wrong with it.
 
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#2,024
#2,024



You and others are so damn scared of Trump, meanwhile yall turn a blind eye to this crap and defend President poops his pants without fail.

This country is falling fast and you share the blame.


Merge away. Smh
 
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