Incipient
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Tennessee would have to win out and make it to the SEC championship (likely meaning that the Vols would have to beat Vandy twice in 2 weeks). That's a tall task, but if they do, I think we'd be a bubble team.
If we do that, I think we're probably in. RPI forecast projects our RPI would run up into the mid-50s, and that'd almost certainly give us 5 top 50 wins. If we win the next three straight and then lose, our RPI is probably high-60s or low-70s, and we're probably on the bubble but on the wrong side of it. Although it's hard to argue we wouldn't have a better resume than a couple of last year's bubble teams that got in.
That said, we're underdogs in our next two for a reason.