North Korea set to launch another missile

#51
#51
TennTradition said:
I've honestly been wondering about that one. I haven't said anything because I made a comment a while back that I've tried to stick to - I'm going to try to be more fair to the missile shield.

Is this missile a ballistic missile - and are we talking exoatmospheric intercept? If so, then I'm tempted to take the bet. I would be even more willing to take the bet if their missile involves even basic balloon and chafe countermeasures.

If we go for endoatmospheric intercept of a (unarmed) missile, then I think that we can get it.

Edit: My reason for saying I would be more "fair" is that I can't in good faith say that I KNOW the missile shield will not work. I have serious concerns about the effectiveness of our missile defense when applied in exoatmospheric hit-to-kill scenarios (particularly when countermeasures are involved), but to continually attack something that I have not worked with directly and perhaps do not know all details of is probably unfair...though I will readily admit that the physics they are battling against in these scenarios are daunting.
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Geek speak, you're either with it or against it! No gray areas here.
 
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#54
#54
MontereyVol said:
I think we do. With the date announced and the basic trajectory, if we fail to neutralize it we really do suck.
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Date and trajectory certainly help. If we are keyed onto it and ready to go for an early-stage (while still in fired flight) intercept, then we can should certainly be able to hit the missile. I wasn't really factoring that in, but it does make a huge difference. If we have satellites trained on the site for early warning, and forward-based radars deployed, then would be be able to make intercept while in the fired stage of the missile launch?

That's a very different game than exoatmospheric intercept....

Do you know if their missile would even go atmospheric...or what we expect it to be able to do? Doppler effect is our friend if not.
 
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#55
#55
TennTradition said:
Date and trajectory certainly help. If we are keyed onto it and ready to go for an early-stage (while still in fired flight) intercept, then we can should certainly be able to hit the missile. I wasn't really factoring that in, but it does make a huge difference. If we have satellites trained on the site for early warning, and forward-based radars deployed, then would be be able to make intercept while in the fired stage of the missile launch?

That's a very different game than exoatmospheric intercept....

Do you know if their missile would even go atmospheric...or what we expect it to be able to do? Doppler effect is our friend if not.
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If it is a multi-stage rocket and everything works like it should, exoatmospheric isn't out of the question.
 
#56
#56
TennTradition said:
Date and trajectory certainly help. If we are keyed onto it and ready to go for an early-stage (while still in fired flight) intercept, then we can should certainly be able to hit the missile. I wasn't really factoring that in, but it does make a huge difference. If we have satellites trained on the site for early warning, and forward-based radars deployed, then would be be able to make intercept while in the fired stage of the missile launch?

That's a very different game than exoatmospheric intercept....

Do you know if their missile would even go atmospheric...or what we expect it to be able to do? Doppler effect is our friend if not.
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Well, we have multiple systems now in place so it boils down to which one will take it out?

The bet goes to an orbital shoot down only? I doubt we try and hit it while its still in its firing stage, where's the fun it that?
 
#58
#58
MontereyVol said:
Well, we have multiple systems now in place so it boils down to which one will take it out?

The bet goes to an orbital shoot down only? I doubt we try and hit it while its still in its firing stage, where's the fun it that?
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Isn't it easier to hit it post-boost, because Newton takes over the driver seat and it's ballistic trajectory can be predicted? While in boost, I'm not sure you can accurately tell where it is going to ultimately go.
 
#59
#59
We should knock it down while it is still in North Korean airspace. That would be the ultimate slap in the face to that little idiot.
 
#60
#60
SavageOrangeJug said:
We should knock it down while it is still in North Korean airspace. That would be the ultimate slap in the face to that little idiot.
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It would also be very dangerous wouldn't it? Certainly don't want any pieces coming down over Japan.
 
#61
#61
rjd970 said:
Isn't it easier to hit it post-boost, because Newton takes over the driver seat and it's ballistic trajectory can be predicted? While in boost, I'm not sure you can accurately tell where it is going to ultimately go.
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There are on-board sensors that can easily see the plume and seek the missile in that fashion. I would think it is considerably easier...but I don't know, as I said earlier...I haven't worked with the systems. I guess it is possible that you could hit a "just released" stage by accident...
 
#62
#62
MontereyVol said:
The equipment is in place for it to happen :)
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If there are no countermeasures, then I would be think we would have a good chance of making intercept - particularly if we know when they're flinging it and which direction it is going (see...I'm coming around a bit....:) ). I don't have a lot of confidence in our ability to overcome many countermeasures, though....
 
#64
#64
TennTradition said:
If there are no countermeasures, then I would be think we would have a good chance of making intercept - particularly if we know when they're flinging it and which direction it is going (see...I'm coming around a bit....:) ). I don't have a lot of confidence in our ability to overcome many countermeasures, though....
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Ah... the countermeasures argument rears its ugly head. I still think we could take one down, afterall some of the guys from your neck of the woods helped build it. Do have no faith they haven't worked on methods to avoid every conceivable scenario.

Maybe NK has a trick up their sleeve?
 
#65
#65
TennTradition said:
No way we do that...I don't know if the Japanese concern is too much...but no way we shoot down something in their airspace.
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Exactly, we will need proof of a trajectory for later arguments. I doubt we give a hoot about doing it in their airspace but in order to have other nations back us later on we will have to have ample proof of where that rocket was going.
 
#66
#66
MontereyVol said:
Ah... the countermeasures argument rears its ugly head. I still think we could take one down, afterall some of the guys from your neck of the woods helped build it. Do have no faith they haven't worked on methods to avoid every conceivable scenario.

Maybe NK has a trick up their sleeve?
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It isn't so much not knowing what kind of countermeasure they might throw at us. I am even worried about fairly simple countermeasures that we know about. We can certainly try to design to them...but there are limits to the physics that concern me. As I've always said, it wouldn't bother me to be wrong on that...and I could be...I haven't designed the systems, so I don't *really* know.

....I have a good guess though :)

Anything but ideal conditions and I begin to wonder....
 
#68
#68
does Vegas have odds on whether NK can even hit US territory with their rockets? I don't believe they can't load a warhead on them so a pair of binocs should be a good defense
 
#69
#69
I have said it before, I'll say it again. Jong Il is nuts. I also say that the entire world needs to be told if any attack is made to US soil we will not hesitate to make a parking lot out of your country. And then follow through with that promise.
 
#70
#70
superdave1984 said:
I have said it before, I'll say it again. Jong Il is nuts. I also say that the entire world needs to be told if any attack is made to US soil we will not hesitate to make a parking lot out of your country. And then follow through with that promise.
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:yes:
 
#71
#71
You're absolutely right, but the world knows that that's not true any more... just stating that they're going to fire a missile towards/at Hawaii should be sufficient grounds to level all missile facilities in NK...

I also say that the entire world needs to be told if any attack is made to US soil we will not hesitate to make a parking lot out of your country. And then follow through with that promise.
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#72
#72
Daddy Gee said:
You're absolutely right, but the world knows that that's not true any more... just stating that they're going to fire a missile towards/at Hawaii should be sufficient grounds to level all missile facilities in NK...
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Daddy Gee, where do you get your screen name from? Are you related to Chino? Take the Wolverine up to Annandale?
 
#73
#73
Does anyone have any info on where this particular NK cargo ship is right now? I know we wanted to wait until it was away from the Chinese coast before we would think about boarding, supposedly to keep from embarrassing the Chinese.

From what I understand it is away from Chinese waters now and yet we haven't boarded it. This got me to wondering why we haven't checked this ship out yet. There are two very plausible reasons as I see it. 1 Obama doesn't want to provoke any action from NK (very unlikely given we suspect they are in violation of UN sanctions and they pose little threat to us right now). 2 There may be some equipment or weapons on board that will be traced back to the China and will certainly embarrass them and ramp up tensions between us (this is the most likely scenario I could think of).

It is time for Obama to make a move here, North Korea is being very provocative at this moment and the world is watching. Letting any nation get away with these kind of threats and actions could set a very bad precedent at this point. JMO!
 
#74
#74
I thought I read somewhere that the ship was headed to Burma, but I'm not sure about that. There isn't a lot of info coming out about this thing.
 
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