Official Bubble Watch Thread

#1,101
#1,101
bleedingTNorange said:
Tuesday's Games to Watch:

TENNESSEE vs. Kentucky

Saint Joseph's vs. VCU
Florida vs. Auburn
Wake Forest vs. Clemson
Virginia Tech vs. Pittsburgh
Mississippi State vs. Georgia
LSU vs. Ole Miss
Ohio State vs. Michigan State
Boise State vs. New Mexico
Click to expand...

Curious to everyone's thoughts on the 3 double bolded games...

1. Wake Forest vs. Clemson: A loss by Clemson and they're just about eliminated, their margin or error would be zero...however a loss from Wake Forest and they would quickly find themselves outside the field and needing a strong finish, while Clemson could still lose a few games and both ultimately miss the field. I suppose simply put, Clemson winning makes both teams getting in more likely, but also makes both teams missing more likely...WF winning makes just 1/2 teams getting in most likely.

2. Virginia Tech is safer than these other teams, a loss though with Chris Clarke could make the committee look at VT a little differently. Pitt has a lot of work to do to get in, but it's still possible, a win tonight is a must though for them. Do you take Pitt to win and hope both teams flop, or hope VT wins and eliminates Pitt from contention?

3. Ohio State has been trending upwards but still finds themselves with work to do, tonight's a must win for them if they wanna get in. A loss for Michigan State and they still are right there on the bubble...so do you hope for an Ohio State win and both teams flop down the stretch and miss but increase chances that both get in, or hope for a Michigan State win and eliminate Ohio State?


I'm not sure there's a right or wrong answer, the gambler in me would like to say pull for Clemson, Pitt and Ohio State and hope it pays off with all 6 missing the field...but the safe bet says pull for the other 3 and take 3/6.
 
#1,102
#1,102
bleedingTNorange said:
Curious to everyone's thoughts on the 3 double bolded games...
Click to expand...

1) I really feel we need a Clemson win here. If Wake were to win and split their final four, they'd be a pretty solid lock and going 1-3 in their final four would have them on the wrong side of the bubble; unfortunately, I think they have a good chance of beating both Pitt and Va Tech so I'd estimate them as "in" with a win tonight. Conversely, losing to Clemson means that they'd have to go 3-1 down the stretch to get that near-lock status and I'm not sure they can pull that off.

Clemson, on the other hand, is on literal life support. While losing tonight all but guarantees their name goes uncalled on Selection Sunday, the only "surefire" win I see for the Tigers in their final five games is against Boston College. I'd feel much more comfortable if Clemson won tonight, bringing their RPI up to the high 40s and Wake's down to the low 40s, and then just confidently hope that Clemson doesn't go 3-2 down the stretchl

2) I don't see many situations unfolding wherein Virginia Tech winds up on the wrong side of the bubble after that win against UVA, so I really want them to win tonight. It's not that I think that Pittsburgh has a great shot of making the tournament if they win considering their remaining gauntlet, but I think they have a better shot of making it with a win than Va Tech has of missing it with a loss if that makes sense.

3) Once left for dead, Michigan State has been playing just average enough ball that I think they're in for sure with 18 wins. I'm not seeing many certain victories for them after tonight, but I'd rather have them win and beat Illinois/Nebraska to reach 18 than have Ohio State win, go 3-1 in their final four and make the tournament with Michigan State having a shot to steal one from Wisconsin/Purdue/Maryland.
 
#1,103
#1,103
Pulling for Clemson. Going for both teams being eliminated and with Clemson acc record being so poor I think they have more work to do

Very much so pulling for Pitt because there are out anyway imo for the same Reason as Clemson

Pulling fo mich State very so as Ohio state has a similar to us and we don't need another team with such a good sos and a similar rpi
 
#1,109
#1,109
Lost 3 of last 4 , with a losing Conference record. 3 stars (except Grant) are playing like 2 stars. Take UT off that bubble
 
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