Official Bubble Watch Thread

[BruinVol]

Should be a good day today, according to the palm reader we need Kentucky to beat Missouri, which I give that a 85% chance of happening, we need Georgia tech to beat nc state, I give that a 70% chance, and South Carolina needs to beat Florida, which I give a 50% chance of happening. If all three of those happen, and we win tomorrow, we should be back in the top 50 rpi, what I understand. We are barely out at 51 right now.

We don't want ga tech to win

 

[Dallasbowlin]

We don't want ga tech to win

That's what the reader says, I check it once a week, so not 100% sure how reliable it really is.

http://www.volnation.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=128582&stc=1&d=1487690436

 

[Dallasbowlin]

I don't get the carolina-Florida game either, we lost to both.

 

[PackersVols91]

I don't get the carolina-Florida game either, we lost to both.

We play SC twice and also still have a chance to beat them.

 

[BruinVol]

That is for boosting RPI. Ga Tech is on he bubble and ahead of us in places. We need them to lose.

 

[Dallasbowlin]

We play SC twice and also still have a chance to beat them.

Ah, didn't even think about that.

 

[Dallasbowlin]

That is for boosting RPI. Ga Tech is on he bubble and ahead of us in places. We need them to lose.

Yeah, I should've worded my op better.

 

[BruinVol]

Jerry Palm article says 74 is the highest rpi to ever get in. I thought It was in the 60s?

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Jerry Palm article says 74 is the highest rpi to ever get in. I thought It was in the 60s?

First I've heard of that...

 

[bleedingTNorange]

I just listened to the Palm interview on Basilio from yesterday, here's what I gather: he flat out holds to the line that you must be 4 games over .500 to receive consideration from him. Lunardi appears to look at upcoming schedules and project a bit while Palm looks at if the tournament starts tomorrow. I'm not saying either way is right or wrong, both guys have been doing this a long time and come selection Sunday both guys brackets will be very similar, it's just the path to get there looks different for both. Below are Palms first four/last four and as you see everyone of those teams is over that 4 game mark...

Palms last 4 in:
TCU 16-10 RPI:58
Providence 16-11 RPI:67
Rhode Island 17-9 RPI:52
Alabama 16-10 RPI:70

First 4 out:
Georgia Tech 15-11 RPI:76
Ole Miss 16-11 RPI:71
Wichita State 24-4 RPI:43
Syracuse 16-12 RPI:86

 

[therealitytheory]

If that "4-over" deal is a thing, then we really need to go 3-1 these last 4 games to have a shot, right? Conference tourney's don't really figure anymore unless you win them outright from what I hear, with the odd exception.

 

[v011s]

Should be a good day today, according to the palm reader we need Kentucky to beat Missouri, which I give that a 85% chance of happening, we need Georgia tech to beat nc state, I give that a 70% chance, and South Carolina needs to beat Florida, which I give a 50% chance of happening. If all three of those happen, and we win tomorrow, we should be back in the top 50 rpi, what I understand. We are barely out at 51 right now.

Your percentages seem way off.
UK with only an 85% chance to beat Mizzou?

SC with a 50% chance to beat UF on the road?
With their struggles lately?

 

[Dallasbowlin]

Your percentages seem way off.
UK with only an 85% chance to beat Mizzou?

SC with a 50% chance to beat UF on the road?
With their struggles lately?

Meant 95% on the uk game. and sc's defense is what makes me think they could give Florida some fits.

 

[Catbone]

If that "4-over" deal is a thing, then we really need to go 3-1 these last 4 games to have a shot, right? Conference tourney's don't really figure anymore unless you win them outright from what I hear, with the odd exception.

Seems so. I think either way we have to go 3-1

 

[BruinVol]

First I've heard of that...

New Mexico in 1999.
I ain't looking that far back but he stated they had a 74 rpi

 

[bleedingTNorange]

New Mexico in 1999.
I ain't looking that far back but he stated they had a 74 rpi

Seems a bit like an outlier, in 2001 Georgia made it at 16-14 but he dismisses it saying they were a rarity, I would say the same applies here.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

If that "4-over" deal is a thing, then we really need to go 3-1 these last 4 games to have a shot, right? Conference tourney's don't really figure anymore unless you win them outright from what I hear, with the odd exception.

I don't know anyone who thinks less than 3-1 will work, so yes 3-1. If they go 1-1 in the SECT they'll still have that 4 game over .500 mark, seems like the most realistic path to the dance at this point.

 

[BruinVol]

Seems a bit like an outlier, in 2001 Georgia made it at 16-14 but he dismisses it saying they were a rarity, I would say the same applies here.

It is an outlier but before I was thinking 67 was the outlier.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

It is an outlier but before I was thinking 67 was the outlier.

There's been quite a few in the low to mid 60's make it

 

[bleedingTNorange]

It is an outlier but before I was thinking 67 was the outlier.

Expected records per rpiforecast...

California: 20-10(11-7) RPI:44 SOS:47
Arkansas: 22-9(11-7) RPI:38 SOS:61
Michigan: 19-12(9-9) RPI:49 SOS:35
Michigan State: 18-13(10-8) RPI:46 SOS:11
Kansas State: 19-12(8-10) RPI:61 SOS:58
TCU: 17-13(7-11) RPI:61 SOS:29
Seton Hall: 18-12(8-10) RPI:57 SOS:43
Tennessee: 17-13(10-8) RPI:48 SOS:16
Wake Forest: 16-14(7-11) RPI:43 SOS:13
Illinois State: 24-5(17-1) RPI:32 SOS:137
------------------------------------------------------------------
Providence: 18-13(8-10) RPI:74 SOS:53
Marquette: 18-12(9-9) RPI:69 SOS:59
Pittsburgh: 16-15(5-13) RPI:61 SOS:5
Georgia Tech: 16-14(8-10) RPI:84 SOS:45
Clemson: 17-13(7-11) RPI:63 SOS:23
Georgia: 16-14(8-10) RPI:56 SOS:21
Illinois: 16-14(7-11) RPI:75 SOS:24
Alabama: 18-12(11-7) RPI:78 SOS:71
Vanderbilt: 15-16(8-10) RPI:55 SOS:1
Georgetown: 16-15(7-11) RPI:66 SOS:12
Syracuse: 17-14(9-9) RPI:85 SOS:42

So eliminating the bolded because RPI is north of 70 and/or they're not 4 games over .500...

So that leaves you...

California
Arkansas
Michigan
Michigan State
Kansas State
TCU
Seton Hall
Tennessee
Illinois State
?
-------------------------------
Marquette
Clemson

 

[BruinVol]

So eliminating the bolded because RPI is north of 70 and/or they're not 4 games over .500...

So that leaves you...

California
Arkansas
Michigan
Michigan State
Kansas State
TCU
Seton Hall
Tennessee
Illinois State
?
-------------------------------
Marquette
Clemson

This is going to be a record year maybe on both ends of the .500 and RPI.

I swear if tonight and tomorrow go poorly for bubble teams 2-2 might keep the Vols in it.

 

[therealitytheory]

We should handle Vandy. If we lose to LSU, we don't deserve to dance anyway.

Bama is the ticket.

 

[Catbone]

So eliminating the bolded because RPI is north of 70 and/or they're not 4 games over .500...

So that leaves you...

California
Arkansas
Michigan
Michigan State
Kansas State
TCU
Seton Hall
Tennessee
Illinois State
?
-------------------------------
Marquette
Clemson

I think the bubble is so weak this year there will be a team or two that breaks the lowest RPI record that gets in

 

[bleedingTNorange]

This is going to be a record year maybe on both ends of the .500 and RPI.

I swear if tonight and tomorrow go poorly for bubble teams 2-2 might keep the Vols in it.

This next week will be interesting, some teams may go on runs and finish better than expected, still 4-5 games left for most teams but very few have favorable schedules.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

I think the bubble is so weak this year there will be a team or two that breaks the lowest RPI record that gets in

Something is gonna give, whether that's a new record for RPI or a team just 3 games over .500 I'm not sure, but definitely looks like something will have to give.