Official Bubble Watch Thread

#1,701
#1,701
calban said:
Don't we actually need a 4-0 finish just to be in the conversation?
W/L is a very small part of the equation.
If we beat Vandy tonight we drop them out of our 1-50 win column.
Many of the teams we are competing with have 3 or 4 top 50 wins.
we're back to 1 with Vandy dropping out again.
We probably need to beat USC and then come up with another top 50 in the SECT to be considered. JMO
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v011s said:
Yeah, I feel like 1 Top50 win is pretty rough at the bubble.

SOS and RPI might be better, but losing a lot to a good schedule doesn't say a whole lot.
Click to expand...

I don't think so...How many top 50 wins do Wichita State, Illinois State and Wake Forest have?
 
#1,703
#1,703
Rpi projections show Vandy staying in the top 50 with a loss to us and Kentucky if they beat Msu and florida.

Could be 2 top 50 wins if that happens
 
#1,704
#1,704
calban said:
Don't we actually need a 4-0 finish just to be in the conversation?
W/L is a very small part of the equation.
If we beat Vandy tonight we drop them out of our 1-50 win column.
Many of the teams we are competing with have 3 or 4 top 50 wins.
we're back to 1 with Vandy dropping out again.
We probably need to beat USC and then come up with another top 50 in the SECT to be considered. JMO
Click to expand...

I don't think we need 4-0. 4-0 definitely helps our cause, but 3-1 with a loss to anyone not named LSU keeps us alive IMO.
 
#1,711
#1,711
bleedingTNorange said:
I don't think so...How many top 50 wins do Wichita State, Illinois State and Wake Forest have?
Click to expand...

Mich 3
Mich st 4
K st 3
TCU 2
Seton H 3
Northwestern3
Pitt 3
Clemson 4
Providence 4
Marquette 5
Miami 3
Iowa st 3
The teams you mention are in the same boat we're in.
 
#1,712
#1,712
calban said:
Don't we actually need a 4-0 finish just to be in the conversation?
W/L is a very small part of the equation.
If we beat Vandy tonight we drop them out of our 1-50 win column.
Many of the teams we are competing with have 3 or 4 top 50 wins.
we're back to 1 with Vandy dropping out again.
We probably need to beat USC and then come up with another top 50 in the SECT to be considered. JMO
Click to expand...

I think you also have to look at wins against other tournament teams and other bubble teams. KSU is not currently in the RPI top 50, but I believe they are in the top 30 at KenPom. They are in right now, and we have a win over them. Georgia Tech is a bubble team, and we have a win over them. ETSU is 60 at KenPom.

You also have to look at Top 100 wins. Some of those teams with one or two more Top 50 wins than us actually have less Top 100 wins. It's a balancing test, and our SOS will definitely help. Marquette's OOC SOS is horrendous. If we played that schedule, we would have 20 wins just like them.
 
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#1,714
#1,714
bleedingTNorange said:
Now...how many "bad losses" do each of those teams have?
Click to expand...

Of course there are other factors to look at.
Just winning 17 doesn't get us in. Simply pointing out there are other criteria to be considered.
To answer your question though:
Mich 3/1
Mich st 4/1
K st 3/0
TCU 2/0
Seton H 3/1
Northwestern3/0
Pitt 3/1
Clemson 4/1
Providence 4/3
Marquette 5/1
Miami 3/0
Iowa st 3/2
Georgetown 3/0
 
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#1,715
#1,715
bleedingTNorange said:
I don't think so...How many top 50 wins do Wichita State, Illinois State and Wake Forest have?
Click to expand...

1 each I think?

Wichita State and Illinois State also have a more robust W/L record.

Wake's worst loss is to No.62 Clemson who has somehow been on the bubble until this weekend.

UT has 3 losses worse than that.



Not making a case for those 3 over UT, but it's not like winning 3 more is some sort of slam dunk. Just means the RPI will stay high.
 
#1,716
#1,716
VolGee4 said:
I think you also have to look at wins against other tournament teams and other bubble teams. KSU is not currently in the RPI top 50, but I believe they are in the top 30 at KenPom. They are in right now, and we have a win over them. Georgia Tech is a bubble team, and we have a win over them. ETSU is 60 at KenPom.
Click to expand...

At this point, I agree.
When you're this close, you probably can compare records against other tourney and bubble teams.

KSU, GT, UK, and ETSU look good.
 
#1,717
#1,717
calban said:
Of course there are other factors to look at.
Just winning 17 doesn't get us in. Simply pointing out there are other criteria to be considered.
To answer your question though:
Click to expand...
The "main bubble" IMO, with Good W's/Bad L's

Cal 1/0
Michigan 3/1
Michigan State 4/1
Kansas State 3/1
TCU 2/2
Seton Hall 3/1
Tennessee 1/1
Marquette 3/1
Illinois State1/2
-----------------------------
Wake Forest 1/0
Pittsburgh 3/2
Georgia 0/2
Georgetown 3/0
Providence 4/3
Illinois 3/0
 
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#1,718
#1,718
If you change "good win" to top 75...

The "main bubble" IMO, with Good 's/Bad L's

Cal 2/0
Michigan 5/1
Michigan State 5/1
Kansas State 3/1
TCU 4/2
Seton Hall 6/1
Tennessee 6/1
Marquette 7/1
Illinois State1/2
-----------------------------
Wake Forest 2/0
Pittsburgh 4/2
Georgia 3/2
Georgetown 4/0
Providence 8/3
Illinois 3/0
 
#1,719
#1,719
Expected record vs top 100 which is a common metric used by committee...

Cal 4-9 30%
Michigan 10-10 50%
Michigan State 10-12 45%
Kansas State 5-11 31%
TCU 5-11 31%
Seton Hall 8-11 42%
Tennessee 9-12 43%
Marquette 9-10 47%
Illinois State 2-3 40%
-----------------------------
Wake Forest 5-14 26%
Pittsburgh 7-13 35%
Georgia 8-11 42%
Georgetown 6-15 29%
Providence 9-9 50%
Illinois 6-13 32%
 
#1,720
#1,720
v011s said:
1 each I think?

Wichita State and Illinois State also have a more robust W/L record.

Wake's worst loss is to No.62 Clemson who has somehow been on the bubble until this weekend.

UT has 3 losses worse than that.



Not making a case for those 3 over UT, but it's not like winning 3 more is some sort of slam dunk. Just means the RPI will stay high.
Click to expand...

Winning 3 more means Tennessee adds at least 1 more top 50-75 win
 
#1,721
#1,721
What did Syracuse get in the tourney with last year RPI wise?

Tonight is huge game for them. They get in if they win tonight
 
#1,722
#1,722
bleedingTNorange said:
Winning 3 more means Tennessee adds at least 1 more top 50-75 win
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And all 3 of those other schools have the opportunity for at least 1 more 50-75 win too.


Just saying that I think UT is on the wrong side of the bubble currently, even though some projections have them on the right side.


The SEC is so bad, there are just no opportunities.
You think if UK or UF win out, and win the regular and conference tourney that either would get a 1 seed?
No way. There's just not enough high end opportunity in this league.
And UT is suffering because of it too.
 
#1,724
#1,724
v011s said:
And all 3 of those other schools have the opportunity for at least 1 more 50-75 win too.


Just saying that I think UT is on the wrong side of the bubble currently, even though some projections have them on the right side.


The SEC is so bad, there are just no opportunities.
You think if UK or UF win out, and win the regular and conference tourney that either would get a 1 seed?
No way. There's just not enough high end opportunity in this league.
And UT is suffering because of it too.
Click to expand...

SEC is ranked ahead of the Pac12, A10 and AAC this year.
 
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