Official Bubble Watch Thread

#1,728
#1,728
bleedingTNorange said:
17-14(9-9) RPI of 90 and they're in? I don't think so.
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Cuse has wins over FSU and UVA.

Along with Ws against "bubble" teams like Pitt, Clemson, and Wake.
And a W over Miami, which is safely in the tourney.
Plus they are .500 in the ACC, easily the toughest conference.

So much of this thread has delved into RPI and other metrics while the common sense stuff is being overlooked.
 
#1,729
#1,729
v011s said:
Cuse has wins over FSU and UVA.

Along with Ws against "bubble" teams like Pitt, Clemson, and Wake.
And a W over Miami, which is safely in the tourney.
Plus they are .500 in the ACC, easily the toughest conference.

So much of this thread has delved into RPI and other metrics while the common sense stuff is being overlooked.
Click to expand...

They also have 3 bad losses , but yet to play duke and louisville.
Might be able to raise the rpi and balance out the bad losses with good late wins.
 
#1,732
#1,732
v011s said:
Cuse has wins over FSU and UVA.

Along with Ws against "bubble" teams like Pitt, Clemson, and Wake.
And a W over Miami, which is safely in the tourney.
Plus they are .500 in the ACC, easily the toughest conference.

So much of this thread has delved into RPI and other metrics while the common sense stuff is being overlooked.
Click to expand...

You can say that all you want, but fact is committee uses the RPI and NEVER has a team with a RPI near 90 gotten in.
 
#1,738
#1,738
BruinVol said:
Realtimerpi says Syracuse had a 71 last year.
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2-1 has them at 73...not sure how the ACCT bracket would stack up but I wouldn't feel safe going 0-1 or 1-1 if I was 'Cuse in that scenario.

Is there an outside chance a team with a RPI north of 70 could get in this year, sure...same way there's a chance a team that's only 3 games over .500 could get in.

Going off history you need a RPI inside of 50 to be relatively "safe", there's about 1 a year that gets in with a RPI north of 60 it seems.
 
#1,739
#1,739
bleedingTNorange said:
Could be, it's hard to find exact number for selection Sunday...

However that's a far cry from 90
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They are at 84 currently with games left against Duke, Louisville, and GT.
You think if they win 1 or 2 and a couple in the ACC tourney, that their RPI will still be that high?
The ACC only has 1 team outside the Top100.


I don't understand why you let the RPI rule you.
It's just as short-sighted as Palm not including teams like UT in his bubble watch.

Especially considering the back end of the field is so very average this year.
 
#1,740
#1,740
bleedingTNorange said:
2-1 has them at 73...not sure how the ACCT bracket would stack up but I wouldn't feel safe going 0-1 or 1-1 if I was 'Cuse in that scenario.

Is there an outside chance a team with a RPI north of 70 could get in this year, sure...same way there's a chance a team that's only 3 games over .500 could get in.

Going off history you need a RPI inside of 50 to be relatively "safe", there's about 1 a year that gets in with a RPI north of 60 it seems.
Click to expand...

Vandy will have an rpi inside of 50 by going 2-2.

Are they safe?
 
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#1,741
#1,741
v011s said:
They are at 84 currently with games left against Duke, Louisville, and GT.
You think if they win 1 or 2 and a couple in the ACC tourney, that their RPI will still be that high?


I don't understand why you let the RPI rule you.
It's just as short-sighted as Palm not including teams like UT in his bubble watch.

Especially considering the back end of the field is so very average this year.
Click to expand...

I don't like the RPI, I think it's flawed, but as long as the committee continues to use it as their #1 then so am I. Teams don't get in with a RPI above 70, 1 team a year if that get in with a RPI above 60...again I don't like that metric but why dismiss it if that's what the committee uses?

If they go 1-3 they're done, 2-1 and they'll need a run in the ACCT to have even a sliver of hope, 3-0 and they'll be in contention probably needing at least a win or 2 in the ACCT.
 
#1,742
#1,742
bleedingTNorange said:
I don't like the RPI, I think it's flawed, but as long as the committee continues to use it as their #1 then so am I. Teams don't get in with a RPI above 70, 1 team a year if that get in with a RPI above 60...again I don't like that metric but why dismiss it if that's what the committee uses?

If they go 1-3 they're done, 2-1 and they'll need a run in the ACCT to have even a sliver of hope, 3-0 and they'll be in contention probably needing at least a win or 2 in the ACCT.
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Are you suggesting that this year is a normal year?

Way more Ls piling up for a lot of teams make the middle of the pack very full.
 
#1,744
#1,744
v011s said:
Are you suggesting that this year is a normal year?

Way more Ls piling up for a lot of teams make the middle of the pack very full.
Click to expand...

I've heard from multiple people that 2011 was the worst year by far, and Jerry Palm just said yesterday that last years bubble was worse than this years as of today.

There are a lot of games left, if every bubble team listed loses out then things will get interesting, but I'm guessing a couple of these teams make a run to finish the season...hopefully our Vols are one.
 
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#1,746
#1,746
I'm not arguing, just pointing out that UT has 2 good things going for it:
RPI and SOS
As far as actual wins go........ not nearly as good as other bubble teams.


Win a few more and it won't even matter.
 
#1,748
#1,748
v011s said:
And all 3 of those other schools have the opportunity for at least 1 more 50-75 win too.


Just saying that I think UT is on the wrong side of the bubble currently, even though some projections have them on the right side.


The SEC is so bad, there are just no opportunities.
You think if UK or UF win out, and win the regular and conference tourney that either would get a 1 seed?
No way. There's just not enough high end opportunity in this league.
And UT is suffering because of it too.
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SEC isn't good, but it is improving. UK won't get a 1 seed if they win out because they have 5 losses, not because they are in the SEC. There are 6 teams ranked ahead of them with better records, 5 of which also have better RPIs.

Florida is a more interesting case. They are ranked ahead of UK in both RPI and SOS, and if they run the table, would have a legitimate shot at a 1 seed IMO. 29-5 SEC reg. season and tournament champion would have them in the conversation based on what happened to the 4 teams currently ahead of them with a better combination of record/RPI/SOS.
 
#1,750
#1,750
FleeceItOut said:
Probably should have shut this thread down after the UGA game.

Some of you guys are setting yourselves up to be let down.
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Why? If the team finishes 3-1 they are very likely going to be in the dance. There are even fringe cases for the Vols being able to make it if teams on the bubble continue to lose and UT goes 2-2.

It's a weird year.
 
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