Official Bubble Watch Thread

#2,151
#2,151
calban said:
Pretty much impossible for TN to get back to an rpi of 45-50.
Have to look at how both teams are playing. Vandy looked pretty good against KY.
TN is on a definite downward spiral.
Pons is the only good news we've had in February.
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Not sure what you're looking at but there are definite scenarios for Tennessee to get back into the top 50 RPI.

Pons & Walker, how about them apples??
 
#2,152
#2,152
The last I checked the UT expected RPI is 63. Would need to advance a round or 2 in Nashville to beat UK or UF to boost the RPI back to the top 50.
 
#2,153
#2,153
TNSportsman said:
Where is this 4 games over .500 imaginary rule coming from? Georgia got in the tournament at 16-14 one year when the field was just 64 teams and they had the #1 SOS.
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It has been Jerry Palm's bench mark, he has mentioned that's UGA steam and said they were such an odd case that it'll never happen again, he has said committee has hinted that team shouldn't have gotten in. Also with that team, they played like every single game against top 100 teams which nobody has ever come close to doing, including this Vandy team.
 
#2,155
#2,155
bleedingTNorange said:
It has been Jerry Palm's bench mark, he has mentioned that's UGA steam and said they were such an odd case that it'll never happen again, he has said committee has hinted that team shouldn't have gotten in. Also with that team, they played like every single game against top 100 teams which nobody has ever come close to doing, including this Vandy team.
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I think this year might be an odd case as well. I don't see a way that the games above .500 metric holds with these bubble teams. I could be wrong but we are looking at a Wake, Clemson, GT, or Vandy type team getting in this tournament.
 
#2,156
#2,156
TNSportsman said:
I think this year might be an odd case as well. I don't see a way that the games above .500 metric holds with these bubble teams. I could be wrong but we are looking at a Wake, Clemson, GT, or Vandy type team getting in this tournament.
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Oh I agree 100%, I've said I think a 15 loss team is gonna get in which has never happened before either...whether they take a new record low RPI, a team only 2-3 games over .500, or take 1 or more 15 loss teams in not sure, but they're gonna have to do something in order to fill the field.
 
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#2,157
#2,157
bleedingTNorange said:
Not sure what you're looking at but there are definite scenarios for Tennessee to get back into the top 50 RPI.

Pons & Walker, how about them apples??
Click to expand...
50+ yes. Under 50 would take 3 wins in the SECT.

Impressive. I was the guy that said he wouldn't get either one.
 
#2,159
#2,159
bleedingTNorange said:
Last team in before Kentucky?

It amazes me how many here are so quick to say 17-15 Vandy with a RPI of ~50 is in, but 18-15/19-15 Tennessee with RPI of ~45-50 has no chance?
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That's an easy answer.

One is one home game away from happening and the other is 5 games away.
 
#2,160
#2,160
BruinVol said:
That's an easy answer.

One is one home game away from happening and the other is 5 games away.
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I'm not debating how likely either is to happen, I'm saying that so many are quick to dismiss any path for the Vols other than winning SECT yet are very quick to put Vandy in with worse record and similar metric numbers and not needing any SECT help.
 
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#2,161
#2,161
Looking at just brackets updated today in bracket matrix...

Last 6 IN:
Providence
Marquette
Syracuse
Illinois State
California
Rhode Island

First 6 OUT:
Vanderbilt
Illinois
Wake Forest
Houston
TCU
Kansas State
 
#2,162
#2,162
Just a little hypothetical...

bleedingTNorange said:
Looking at just brackets updated today in bracket matrix...

Last 6 IN:
Providence...lose to St. John's
Marquette...lose to Xavier & Creighton
Syracuse...lose to Georgia Tech
Illinois State...
California...lose to Utah & Colorado
Rhode Island...beats St. Joseph's & loses to Davidson

First 6 OUT:
Vanderbilt...lose to Florida
Illinois...lose to Michigan & Rutgers
Wake Forest...lose to Louisville & Virginia Tech
Houston...lose to Cincinnati & beat East Carolina
TCU...lose to Kansas State & beat Oklahoma
Kansas State...beat TCU & lose to Texas Tech
Click to expand...

This is what you'd have...

Providence 19-12(9-9) RPI:56 SOS:49
Marquette 17-13(8-10) RPI:79 SOS:52
Syracuse 17-14(9-9) RPI:91 SOS:47
Illinois State
California 19-11(10-8) RPI:55 SOS:41
Rhode Island 20-10(12-6) RPI:46 SOS:63
------------------------------------------------------------------
Vanderbilt 16-15(9-9) RPI:50 SOS:1
Illinois 16-14(7-11) RPI:71 SOS:24
Wake Forest 16-14(7-10) RPI:52 SOS:14
Houston 21-9(12-6) RPI:50 SOS:73
TCU: 17-13(7-11) RPI:65 SOS:31
Kansas State 18-13(7-11) RPI:71 SOS:55


I'm well aware the above will not happen, I'm just trying to show how cloudy it all still is and how messy it could get...


If Tennessee finishes with 2 wins:

Tennessee 16-14(9-9) RPI:61 SOS:22


My point mainly being, I think 3-4 spots are gonna be up for grabs as teams enter conference tournaments, it's gonna be whichever teams can win 2-3 games in their conference tourneys that get in IMO.
 
#2,163
#2,163
Something else to consider, if Illinois State loses prior to MVC final they are done thus opening another spot...there's some who think without winning it all are out, but in that case they'd at least be in contention.
 
#2,175
#2,175
Lets "bubble wrap" this thread and head over to the baseball forum...those guys can be decent this year...started the year off 6-1 and could have 13-14 wins by the time they start SEC play
 
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