Official Bubble Watch Thread

#2,126
#2,126
VCU
Xavier
Michigan
Northwestern
Southern Cal
Providence
California
Syracuse
Marquette
Rhode Island
Illinois State
---------------------------
Georgia Tech
Illinois
Wake Forest
Vanderbilt
Georgia
TCU
Kansas State
Houston
Ohio State
Ole Miss
Tennessee
Clemson
 
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#2,127
#2,127
bleedingTNorange said:
And notice they're outside looking in...to be "IN", they needed to sweep these 2...if they go 1-1 they'll be 16-15 and probably still around the conversation a bit, for comparisons sake Tennessee could be 16-14.
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Lol. So why the hell have them not in the win out category?


You are wrong with your records anyway.
1-1 makes them 17-14
 
#2,128
#2,128
BruinVol said:
Lol. So why the hell have them not in the win out category?


You wrong with your records anyway.
1-1 makes them 17-14
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Because compared to what the teams below them are working with they had the best chance of any to lose a game and still have a chance to get in.

Very simple...win those 2 and they were in, split and they still have a chance but outside looking in most likely headed into SECT, lose both and they need a big run in conference tourney like a host of other teams do.

Interesting twist...if Tennessee plays Citadel instead of Chaminade they'd also have a great chance of being 17-14.
 
#2,129
#2,129
bleedingTNorange said:
Because compared to what the teams below them are working with they had the best chance of any to lose a game and still have a chance to get in.

Very simple...win those 2 and they were in, split and they still have a chance but outside looking in most likely headed into SECT, lose both and they need a big run in conference tourney like a host of other teams do.

Interesting twist...if Tennessee plays Citadel instead of Chaminade they'd also have a great chance of being 17-14.
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Completely disagree. Vandy wins Saturday they are getting in. Too high of rpi, Sos and too many top 50 wins.

Also playing the citadel would have destroyed Tennessee SOS and made the rpi worse. It would have hurt
 
#2,130
#2,130
BruinVol said:
Completely disagree. Vandy wins Saturday they are getting in. Too high of rpi, Sos and too many top 50 wins.

Also playing the citadel would have destroyed Tennessee SOS and made the rpi worse. It would have hurt
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17-14, they lose opening game to be 17-15 with a RPI of 50-55 and they're in?

It would drop Tennessee SOS roughly 3-4 spots and RPI 2-3 spots fwiw...at this point I would trade that for an extra W.
 
#2,131
#2,131
bleedingTNorange said:
17-14, they lose opening game to be 17-15 with a RPI of 50-55 and they're in?

It would drop Tennessee SOS roughly 3-4 spots and RPI 2-3 spots fwiw...at this point I would trade that for an extra W.
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Better check Vandy rpi closer. No shot it would be that high. Will be around 40 with a win against florida
 
#2,132
#2,132
Wednesday's Games to Watch:

Auburn vs. Georgia
Michigan vs. Northwestern
Rhode Island vs. St. Joseph's
NC State vs. Clemson
VCU vs. Dayton
Ole Miss vs. Alabama
Michigan State vs. Illinois
Louisville vs. Wake Forest
Kansas State vs. TCU
Marquette vs. Xavier
Washington State vs. USC
 
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#2,133
#2,133
BruinVol said:
Better check Vandy rpi closer. No shot it would be that high. Will be around 40 with a win against florida
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Actually says 44.3, depending on who they play a loss would drop them at the very least a few spots...17-15 would set 2 records as far as an at large goes, don't see that as likely.
 
#2,135
#2,135
BruinVol said:
Win against florida and they are virtually assured of a top 50 rpi on selection Sunday.
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Lol how can you say that? A win and RPI is expected 44, without knowing their opponent you can say that a loss to an unknown team coupled with results of surrounding teams and Vandy's past opponents won't drop them more than 6 spots?

Also, teams have been left out before with a top 50 RPI, no team has ever made it just 3 games over .500...or 2 games over as you're suggesting.
 
#2,136
#2,136
bleedingTNorange said:
Lol how can you say that? A win and RPI is expected 44, without knowing their opponent you can say that a loss to an unknown team coupled with results of surrounding teams and Vandy's past opponents won't drop them more than 6 spots?

Also, teams have been left out before with a top 50 RPI, no team has ever made it just 3 games over .500...or 2 games over as you're suggesting.
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Nuetral court games don't change rpi much but you can play with rpiforecast if you want.

The number 1 sos and top 50 rpi I would bet my ass has never been left out and that isn't even adding 5 top 50 wins and a winning conference record to the resume talk. Slam dunk invite
 
#2,137
#2,137
BruinVol said:
Nuetral court games don't change rpi much but you can play with rpiforecast if you want.

The number 1 sos and top 50 rpi I would bet my ass has never been left out and that isn't even adding 5 top 50 wins and a winning conference record to the resume talk. Slam dunk invite
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They would be an odd case for sure, find it funny to think you'd have Vandy 17-15 RPI 50 SOS 1 in over Tennessee 19-15 RPI 45 SOS 15.
 
#2,140
#2,140
bleedingTNorange said:
Over who? Since earlier you said finishing season 17-13 wouldn't have been enough?
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19-15 would put the Vols playing on Sunday. Huge difference and the committee might just give the Vols the edge for convience sake.

TCU, wake Forest, Illinios or ga tech could be the a Potenial victim
 
#2,143
#2,143
Mullins2010 said:
TIFWIW but Jerry Palm says Vandy has no chance at getting in tourney unless they win SECT
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He's been very consistent with the 4 games over .500 thing so I respect that but his overall thoughts this year have been foolish. He had Bama and Ole Miss in a few games ago.
 
#2,145
#2,145
calban said:
Beat Florida at home and they're in.
Iffy if they don't. Last team in before KY.
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Last team in before Kentucky?

It amazes me how many here are so quick to say 17-15 Vandy with a RPI of ~50 is in, but 18-15/19-15 Tennessee with RPI of ~45-50 has no chance?
 
#2,148
#2,148
calban said:
Need to talk to Lunardi about that.
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I get what you're saying now, last team in tourney before the Kentucky game...

Do you think Joe still has them in today?

I also had them in, that's because they were 16-13, at that point they deserved to be in over over teams...at 17-14 they'll still be floating right around that bubble line, but I think most will have them out...my point being if they beat Florida they're far from a lock, they would have some work to do in Nashville IMO. I flat out do not see a team 17-15 getting in when all along people are saying you gotta be 4 games over .500 to get in.
 
#2,149
#2,149
bleedingTNorange said:
I get what you're saying now, last team in tourney before the Kentucky game...

Do you think Joe still has them in today?

I also had them in, that's because they were 16-13, at that point they deserved to be in over over teams...at 17-14 they'll still be floating right around that bubble line, but I think most will have them out...my point being if they beat Florida they're far from a lock, they would have some work to do in Nashville IMO. I flat out do not see a team 17-15 getting in when all along people are saying you gotta be 4 games over .500 to get in.
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Pretty much impossible for TN to get back to an rpi of 45-50.
Have to look at how both teams are playing. Vandy looked pretty good against KY.
TN is on a definite downward spiral.
Pons is the only good news we've had in February.
 
#2,150
#2,150
Where is this 4 games over .500 imaginary rule coming from? Georgia got in the tournament at 16-14 one year when the field was just 64 teams and they had the #1 SOS.
 
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