Official Bubble Watch Thread

[BruinVol]

3-4 spots means Tennessee at 17-13 has a RPI of 51-52, which still makes my point valid, they would be ahead of Vandy by just everyone and probably currently in over Rhode Island...that was the whole point of this conversation.

But we wouldn't have a 51-52 lol

 

[BruinVol]

I don't think it's "way too generous", especially when Kansas State is sitting right there as an example that was undersold.

Why would we, they didn't meet projections?

Providence 15-11, 66 RPI, 36 SOS, 18-13(predicted RPI 68), 19-12(predicted RPI 55), 20-11(predicted RPI 45)


Why would we use Providence?




Because their projected rpi was 45 at 20-11 but now that they actually are 20-11 they are only at 53. Significant difference isn't it?

 

[VolnJC]

Two teams definitely headed to the NIT...Belmont and Oakland both top seeds that lost in their conference tourneys...RPIs 63 and 100

 

[BruinVol]

Two teams definitely headed to the NIT...Belmont and Oakland both top seeds that lost in their conference tourneys

Dang

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Lol. I posted thier projections for 3 different records. One of which was 18-13 and it had a projected rpi of 71 on 2/12


Let's settle this this way.

Go to rpiforecast right now and make the Vandy and lsu games wins for the Vols and see what RPI it spits back at you now.......

I will once their information is updated, right now would give a bit inaccurate reading, but I'm sure you've already done it.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

But we wouldn't have a 51-52 lol

Yet on average it's been of 3.67 spots, Kansas State was even undersold, fascinating.

 

[BruinVol]

I will once their information is updated, right now would give a bit inaccurate reading, but I'm sure you've already done it.

Lol. Let me save you the time. You won't like it.

Facts are the bubble hardened and so did the top 50 teams in the rpi. That's why by in large teams we're over valued by the forecast.

Marquette is one of the few that was undervalued. Most of the rest were predicted 3-12 points too high:

 

[BruinVol]

Yet on average it's been of 3.67 spots, Kansas State was even undersold, fascinating.

That's not the average. I will list 7-10 teams shortly when I have time.
It's going to be more 6-7pt difference

 

[bleedingTNorange]

That's not the average. I will list 7-10 teams shortly when I have time.
It's going to be more 6-7pt difference

Use my posts

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Lol. Let me save you the time. You won't like it.

Facts are the bubble hardened and so did the top 50 teams in the rpi. That's why by in large teams we're over valued by the forecast.

Marquette is one of the few that was undervalued. Most of the rest were predicted 3-12 points too high:

Don't forget Kansas State too

 

[Dallasbowlin]

If you are predicting us to go that far, I'll take it a step further. Win the SECT and get an autobid to the big dance. It's just the difference in winning one more game right? I'd like to see what kind of dance moves RB has left in the tank

I can see us beating ky, but not Florida or South Carolina. And we would have to beat one of those in the championship game IMO.

 

[BruinVol]

Use my posts

I am using the story I have been referring to written on 2/12

 

[golfballs]

Damn maybe need to beat UK to get in.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Arkansas projected 22-9 RPI:38, finished 23-8 RPI:28
Wake Forest projected 16-14 RPI:43, finished 17-13 RPI:31
Marquette projected 18-12 RPI:69, finished 19-11 RPI:56

Finished with 1 more win than expected, and on average RPI off by 12 spots, have to think a loss drops most of those teams 6-8 spots so seems about 3-4 off here....


Pittsburgh projected 16-15 RPI:61, finished 15-16 RPI:70
Alabama projected 18-12 RPI:78, finished 17-13 RPI:90

Finished with 1 more loss than expected, and on average RPI of by 11 spots, have to think another win gives them 6-8 spots so seems 3-4 spots off here too...

 

[bleedingTNorange]

I am using the story I have been referring to written on 2/12

Like I said, use my posts...I know they're accurate and where they're coming from.

 

[BruinVol]

Like I said, use my posts...I know they're accurate and where they're coming from.

Lol.

I am going to use numbers by a writer over yours my friend.

 

[BruinVol]

Georgia- predicted rpi 50 with 54 now(4)

K state- 58 predicted and 58 now (0)

Providence- 45 predicted with a 53 now(8)

Marquette- 58 predicted with a 56 (-2)

Syracuse- 71 predicted with a 81 (10)

Va Tech- 40 predicted with a 46(6)

Michigan state - 46 predicted with a 47 (1)


A few other key teams to consider.

Seton Hall was predicted to have a 41 with a 19-11 record but have that 41 at 20-10. Clearly overvalued but don't have exact figure. Plugging in a loss today and their rpi would have been 50. 9 pts overvalued

If ole miss wins tonight their rpi was projected at 60. We will see if that happens. Plugging in a win today their rpi goes to 68 so they were 8pts overvalued

Houston with a win tomorrow over ECU will have a 56 RPI but was projected on 2/12 to have a 47.


All these figures come from scout on 2/12

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Georgia- predicted rpi 50 with 54 now(4)

K state- 58 predicted and 58 now (0)

Providence- 45 predicted with a 53 now(8)

Marquette- 58 predicted with a 56 (-2)

Syracuse- 71 predicted with a 81 (10)

Va Tech- 40 predicted with a 46(6)

Michigan state - 46 predicted with a 47 (1)

So overall an average of 3.85, sounds pretty damn close to that 3.67 I posted lol.

 

[BruinVol]

So overall an average of 3.85, sounds pretty damn close to that 3.67 I posted lol.

Lol. You are ignoring ga tech, Seton hall, Houston and ole miss there my friend.

 

[BruinVol]

There has been a lot of proof given that rpiforecast doesn't work. Next year we need to remember that it is way too generous and add 5-7 to every forecast.

Tenn would have a 56 RPI today had we beaten Vandy and LSU instead of the 48 we have been talking about for a month. That would not have been good enough.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

there has been a lot of proof given that rpiforecast doesn't work. Next year we need to remember that it is way too generous and add 5-7 to every forecast.

Tenn would have a 56 rpi today had we beaten vandy and lsu instead of the 48 we have been talking about for a month. That would not have been good enough in my opinion

fyp

 

[BruinVol]

fyp

Fair enough. Glad you didn't argue with the facts.

What team would Tenn have gotten in over at 56?

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Fair enough. Glad you don't argue with the facts.

Saying it wouldn't have been enough is far from fact...I agree that on average the forecast has been a bit off, however I still believe as I did before that 17-13 and 1-1 would have the Vols dancing. Vols would be 18-14 RPI somewhere in the low 50's and a SOS in the teens, hard to see that getting left out.

 

[BruinVol]

Saying it wouldn't have been enough is far from fact...I agree that on average the forecast has been a bit off, however I still believe as I did before that 17-13 and 1-1 would have the Vols dancing. Vols would be 18-14 RPI somewhere in the low 50's and a SOS in the teens, hard to see that getting left out.

I just think when you look at specific teams on the bubble Tenn wouldn't have been good enough. Maybe Rhode Island but that's about it IMO.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

What team would Tenn have gotten in over at 56?

Syracuse
Wake Forest
Rhode Island
Illinois State
---------------------------
Vanderbilt
Kansas State
Illinois

If Syracuse or Wake Forest lose their first ACC tourney game then I would put Tennessee above them. If Rhode Island doesn't make the A10 championship game I would put Tennessee above them. If Illinois State loses to Wichita State in the MVC championship I would give serious consideration to putting Tennessee above them.

In short I basically see 4 spots still up for grabs with a possible 5th in Xavier trending down rapidly, any of those teams slip up and I think a 18-14 Tennessee team would jump them.